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Population state of health and its impact on retirement age

Systeemianalyysin, päätöksenteon ja riskienhallinnan tutkijakoulu Syysseminaari 4.-5.12.2002, Tallinna Anu Polvinen: Ageing population and pension system in Finland. Population state of health and its impact on retirement age. Problems:. How to forecast population state of health?

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Population state of health and its impact on retirement age

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  1. Systeemianalyysin, päätöksenteon ja riskienhallinnan tutkijakouluSyysseminaari 4.-5.12.2002, TallinnaAnu Polvinen:Ageing population and pension system in Finland • Population state of health and its impact on retirement age

  2. Problems: • How to forecast population state of health? • => retirement age • => public economy (risks)

  3. Previous literature: • Auerbach, A. & Kotlikoff, L. & Leibfritz, W. (1999): Generational accounting around the world. The University of Chigago press • Alho, J.M.(1990): Stochastic Methods in Population Forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting 6 (1990) 521-530. • Hakola, Tuulia (2002): Economic Incentives and Labour Market Transitions of the Aged Finnish Workforce. University of Helsinki.

  4. Results: • Develop statistical methods to estimate ageing population according to state of health, ability to work, incomes and social status • Results related to previous population forecasts

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