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Health Impact Assessment of Air Pollution on Zagreb population

Health Impact Assessment of Air Pollution on Zagreb population. Krešimir Šega Instiute for Medical Research and Occupational Health, Zagreb. This investigation was partly presented at:. ZAŠTITA ZRAKA '01, Šibenik 26-29. rujan 2001 .

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Health Impact Assessment of Air Pollution on Zagreb population

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  1. Health Impact Assessment of Air Pollution on Zagreb population Krešimir Šega Instiute for Medical Research and Occupational Health,Zagreb AMGI/EURASAP Workshop, Zagreb

  2. This investigation was partly presented at: • ZAŠTITA ZRAKA '01, Šibenik 26-29. rujan 2001. • 15th IUAPPA regional conference - 17th EFCA speciality conference, 5-8 september 2006 Lille, France • HEALTH IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF BLACK SMOKE AND AIRBORNE PARTICULATES ON ZAGREB POPULATION, WHO COLABORATING CENTRE FOR AIR QUALITY MANAGEMENT AND AIR POLLUTION CONTROL NEWSLETTER,2006 AMGI/EURASAP Workshop, Zagreb

  3. HEALTH ENDPOINTS RELATED TO AIR POLLUTION • ASSESSMENT • Use of developed models for health risk evaluation. • Enable so called “risk governing”: • Cost estimation for pollution level reduction. • Estimation of primary and secondary health costs. • Adoption of new or improvement of existing air pollution limit values. • MODELLING • Determination of relationship between • air pollution levels and negative health • effects. • Demands: • Large and complete databases • Control over possible cofounders • Educated and well equipped personal AMGI/EURASAP Workshop, Zagreb

  4. ZAGREB MODELLING Šimic, D., Jazbec, A., Pavlovic, M. et al.: Short term effects of ambient NO2 on mortality in Zagreb, Croatia. Proceedings of the 20th International Conference on Information Technology Interfaces, Kalpic Damir, Hljuz-Dobric Vesna (ur.). Pila, Hrvatska: SRCE University Computing Centre, Univerity of Zagreb, 1998., 143-148. Jazbec, A., Šimic, D., Hršak, J. et al.: Short-term effects of ambient nitrogen oxides on the number of emergency asthma cases in Zagreb, Croatia, Arh. hig. rada toksikol. 1999, 50, 171-182. Šimic, D., Pavlovic, M., Jazbec, A. et al.: Short-term effects of air pollution on general mortality in Zagreb, Croatia, Proceedings of the 21st International Conference on Information Technology Interfaces ITI'99, Kalpic Damir, Hljuz-Dobric Vesna (ur.). Pula, Hrvatska: SRCE University Computing Centre, Univerity of Zagreb, 1999., 169-175. Šimic, D., Pavlovic, M., Jazbec, A. et al.: Utjecaj one…išƒenja zraka na u…estalost pogoršanja simptoma opstruktivne bolesti pluƒa un odraslih osoba, Zaštita zraka 99, Valiƒ Fedor i Šega Krešimir (ur.). Zagreb: Hrvatsko udruñenje za zaštitu zraka, 1999., 347-354. Šimic, D., Pavlovic, M., Šega, K. et al.: Is association between mortality and air pollution due to a short temporal displacement? In: D Kalpiƒ and V Hljuz Dobriƒ (eds.) Proceedings of the 23rd International Conference on Information Technology Interfaces ITI 2001,Pula, Croatia, June 19-22, 2001. Zagreb: University Computing Centre, University of Zagreb, pp. 279-83, 2001. Šimić, D.: Povezanost onečišćenja zraka i smrtnosti u gradu Zagrebu, Doktorska disertacija, Zagreb 2001. AMGI/EURASAP Workshop, Zagreb

  5. ASSESSMENT • AirQ - software • WHO Regional Office for Europe • Evaluation of RR related to mortality or morbidity for toptal population or population subgroup and certain air pollutant • Quantification on the basis of atrributable risk proportion (AP) which could be atrribute to the exposure to certain air pollutant by controlling possible cofounders. • Main principle: ONE POPULATION- ONE EXPOSURE DATASET • RR defined for air pollutant concentartion incerase of 10 μg m-3 • Concentration treshold defined at 10 µg m-3, assuming that lower concentrations do not cause observable health effects: - (C < 10 µg m-3Y RR=1) AMGI/EURASAP Workshop, Zagreb

  6. NUMBER OF SASMPLING SITES AND MEASURING PERIODS TSP: 2 measuring sites, 1976-2000 BS: 6 measuring sites, 1976-2005 SO2: 6 measuring sites, 1976-2000 PM10: 1 measuring site, 1999-2005 PM2.5: 1 measuring site, 1999-2004 5 measuring sites, 2005 AMGI/EURASAP Workshop, Zagreb

  7. TOTAL SUSPENDED PARTICULATE MATTER • Total mortality • Cardiovascular moratilty • Respiratory mortality • COPD AMGI/EURASAP Workshop, Zagreb

  8. BLACK SMOKE • Total mortality • Cardiovascular moratilty • Respiratory mortality • Hospital admisson – COPD • Hospital admisson – respiratory diseases (15-64) • Hospital admisson – asthma (<15) • Hospital admisson – asthma (15-64) • Accute miocard infarction AMGI/EURASAP Workshop, Zagreb

  9. SO2 • Total mortality • Cardiovascular moratilty • Respiratory mortality • Hospital admisson – COPD • Hospital admisson – respiratory diseases (15-64) • Hospital admisson – asthma (<15) • Accute miocard infarction AMGI/EURASAP Workshop, Zagreb

  10. PM10 • Total mortality • Cardiovascular moratilty • Respiratory mortality • Hospital admisson – cardiovascular diseases • Hospital admisson – respiratory diseases PM2.5 • Total mortality AMGI/EURASAP Workshop, Zagreb

  11. TSP TOTAL MORTALITY I = 1013 RR = 1.003 (1.002-1.007) RESIRATORY MORTALITY I = 66 RR = 1.008 (1.004-1.018) PP (%) 3.0 1976. 0.7 2000. PP (%) 4.5 1976. 1.1 2000. COPD I = 101.4 RR = 1.0044 (1.0000-1.0094) CARDIOVASCULAR MORTALITY I = 497 RR = 1.002 (1.000-1.006) PP (%) 6.4 1976. 1.6 2000. PP (%) 11.2 1976. 2.7 2000. AMGI/EURASAP Workshop, Zagreb

  12. DIM CARDIOVASCULAR MORTALITY I = 497 RR = 1.004 (1.002-1.008) TOTAL MORTALITY I = 1013 RR = 1.0026 (1.0018-1.0034) PP (%) 1.8 1976. 0.5 2000. PP (%) 2.7 1976. 0.8 2000. COPD I = 101.4 RR = 1.0061 (1.0020-1.0120) RESPIRATORY MORTALITY I = 66 RR = 1.008 (1.004-1.014) PP (%) 5.2 1976. 1.7 2000. PP (%) 4.0 1976. 1.3 2000. AMGI/EURASAP Workshop, Zagreb

  13. DIM HOSPITAL ADMISSION – RESPIRABLE DISEASES (15-64 years) I = 66 RR = 1.0056 (1.0012-1.0102) HOSPITAL ADMISSION – ASTHMA (<15 years) I = 100 RR = 1.006 (1.000-1.017) PP (%) 4.0 1976. 1.2 2000. PP (%) 3.8 1976. 1.2 2000. ACCUTE MIOCARD INFARCTION I = 132 RR = 1.016 (1.0053-1.0290) HOSPITAL ADMISSION – ASTHMA (15-64 years) I = 66 RR = 1.0042 (1.000-1.0118) PP (%) 4.5 1976. 1.1 2000. PP (%) 1.9 1976. 0.6 2000. AMGI/EURASAP Workshop, Zagreb

  14. S02 TOTAL MORTALITY I = 1013 RR = 1.004 (1.003-1.0048) RESPIRATORY MORTALITY I = 66 RR = 1.010 (1.006-1.014) PP (%) 3.7 1976. 0.8 2000. PP (%) 9.2 1976. 2.3 2000. HOSPITAL ADMISSION – RESPIRABLE DISEASES (15-64 years) I = 66 RR = 1.0018 (1.000-1.005) CARDIUOVASCULAR MORTALITY I = 497 RR = 1.012 (1.008-1.020) PP (%) 10.9 1976. 2.7 2000. PP (%) 1.8 1976. 0.5 2000. AMGI/EURASAP Workshop, Zagreb

  15. S02 HOSPITAL ADMISSION – ASTHMA (<15 years) I =100 RR = 1.015 (1.0052-1.0250) COPD I = 101.4 RR = 1.0044 (1.000-1.011) PP (%) 13.2 1976. 3.3 2000. PP (%) 4.2 1976. 1.0 2000. ACCUTE MIOCARD INFARCTION I = 132 RR = 1.0034 (1.0014-1.0052) PP (%) 3.3 1976. 0.8 2000. AMGI/EURASAP Workshop, Zagreb

  16. TSP AMGI/EURASAP Workshop, Zagreb

  17. TSP AMGI/EURASAP Workshop, Zagreb

  18. PM10 AMGI/EURASAP Workshop, Zagreb

  19. PM10 AMGI/EURASAP Workshop, Zagreb

  20. PM10 AMGI/EURASAP Workshop, Zagreb

  21. PM10 AMGI/EURASAP Workshop, Zagreb

  22. PM2.5 AMGI/EURASAP Workshop, Zagreb

  23. CONCLUSIONS Results show significant negative trend of health effects incidences related to TSP, black smoke and SO2 as a consequence of the negative concentration trends during the investigated period. Further investigations should be based on PM10/PM2.5 particle fractions and their constituents (metals, sulphates, nitrates, chlorides, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, organic and elemental carbon etc.) and nitrogen oxides. Simultaneously, further development of models based on Zagreb data should be continued so in the future health impact assessment of air pollution in Zagreb could be used on Zagreb population as much more reliable. AMGI/EURASAP Workshop, Zagreb

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