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Recalculation of RG 1.109 Milk Consumption Rates

Recalculation of RG 1.109 Milk Consumption Rates. Bill Eakin Dominion – Millstone Power Station. RG 1.109 Milk Consumption Rates. Tables E-4 and E-5: Recommended Values for Average and Maximum Exposed Individual In-Lieu of Site Specific Data

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Recalculation of RG 1.109 Milk Consumption Rates

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  1. Recalculation of RG 1.109 Milk Consumption Rates Bill Eakin Dominion – Millstone Power Station

  2. RG 1.109 Milk Consumption Rates Tables E-4 and E-5: Recommended Values for Average and Maximum Exposed Individual In-Lieu of Site Specific Data RG footnote: Average consumption rates obtained from Ref. 19 and age-prorating and maximums from techniques contained in Ref. 10.

  3. Why Re-calculate Milk Consumption? • Event • Bad fuel caused increased iodine releases in outage • Dose assessment • Method 1 calculation yielded thyroid >2.5 mrem • Condition Report generated • NRC comparison • Reviewed event calculation, performed verification with PCDOSE • Recommendation • Reduce conservatism in method (lower consumption)

  4. Millstone 5 miles

  5. RG 1.109 Footnote Average consumption rates obtained from Ref. 19 and age-prorating and maximums from techniques contained in Ref. 10. • Ref. 10 – HERMES code, contains a relationship assumed between age specific maximum consumption to age specific average consumption • Ref. 19 - AER-138 lists total fluid dairy consumed from 1960-1973

  6. HERMESHanford Engineering Regional Model for Environmental Study Based on local dietary surveys, HERMES estimates: • Maximum to average milk consumption ratio ChildTeenAdult Ratio 2 2 3 • Comparison of HERMES with RG 1.109

  7. Agricultural Economic Report AER-138 (1974) • Average milk consumption around the period when RG 1.109 was probably being developed was ~130 Liters/Year • Compare with RG 1.109 Table E-4 Using RG Avgage: Adult (110), Teen (200), Child (170) Liters/Year & Age fractions from RG 1.109 App. D: Adult (.71), Teen (.11), Child (.18) RG Avg 0.71·110 + 0.11·200 + 0.18·170 = 130.7 Liters/Year

  8. Per Capita Milk Consumption Rate Trend

  9. Agricultural Economic Report AER-820 (2003) • Average milk consumption since year 2000 is <65 Liters/Year • Projected to remain relatively level for the next 20 years • Why is milk consumption lower? • Dietary habits • Soda

  10. Average Milk Consumption Comparison 1970: 32 Gallons consumed yearly per person 2000: 16 Gallons consumed yearly per person Consumption considers fluid milk products

  11. New Milk Consumption Rates Assumption 1: RGAvgpercapita FAdult·RGAvgAdult+ FTeen·RGAvgTeen +FChild·RGAvgChild Assumption 2: Assumption 3:

  12. New Milk Consumption Rates • New values are essentially ½ of original RG recommended values • Since consumption rates are U.S. averages, these values are applicable to the entire industry.

  13. Justification for Change • RG 1.109 encourages licensees to develop site or regional specific parameters in-lieu of general approaches and assumptions provided • Method used to develop original RG values remains unchanged • Up-to-date consumption estimates, from a similar source, show consumption at ½ of original basis value

  14. References • Ref 10: USAEC Report HEDL-TME-71-168 HERMES Computer Code, 1971. • Ref 19: AER-138, “Food Consumption, Prices and Expenditures”, USDA, 1974. • AER-820, Food and Agricultural Commodity Consumption in the United States: Looking Ahead to 2020”, USDA, 2003.

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