Long-term energy scenarios for Estonia

1. Long-term energy scenarios for Estonia 2. workshop7.+8. January 2013

2. Welcome (Monday 7.1.2012: 10.00) • Translation • Inception report (10.30) • Purpose and general discussion • Scenarios • Balmorel model • Stream model • Next step • Theme discussions: Estonia perspective (14.30-16.30) • Oil Shale (Energy carriers group) • 110% rule (Security of supply group) • Summary from day 1 • Input from expert groups (Tuesday 8.1.2013: 9.00) • Consumption • Energy carriers (not covered above) • District heating • Next steps • Bilateral meeting with Elering + WEC about inception report

3. Inception report

4. Increasing amount of details • Tender • 5 pages • Project description • 12 pages • Inception report (draft) + data report (draft) • 28 + 67 pages • Final inception report + data report + input from expert groups

5. Scenarios

6. Scenarios

7. Scenarios

8. Scenarios Intenationalorientation Liberal market CO2 concern Environmetalconcern CO2 market collapse Market price for oil shale Reference Renewable energy focus

9. Scenarios • General comment to the scenario set-up • Details about each of the six scenarios (1 reference and five single-track scenarios) • Agreement on how to describe Russia (CO2 target, import tax) and the dynamic in the electricity trade with Russia • The expected developed in nuclear generation. • Decision about the inclusion of CCS as an technology option. • Define the alternative to 110% • 90% • Capacity value for wind… • 100% for all regions?

10. Balmorel

12. Time steps: 1, 2 and 5 years Predefined capital Model driven investments in generation and transmission

13. Output • Raw model results are extremely detailed • Important to maintain overview! • Study aggregated results • Drill down to detailed results • Operation of single unit

14. Results • Difference between two scenarios, e.g.: • Marked price for oil shale – Reference • Liberalised market – Marked price for oil shale • Investments in generation and transmission • Per country: Which technology • Operation (GWh, emissions, electricity prices) • Per country

15. Difference: Impact of step • Technical • MW installed generation (total) • MW transmission • GWh generated (total) • CO2 emissions • Economical • Capital costs • Fuel and operational cost • Average electricity price

16. Difference: Economic overview

17. Balmorel • A broad discussion with the goal to make all stakeholders aware the type of model, the way the model is planned to be used and type of results. This includes the idea of endogenous investments in generation and transmission capacity from 2020 to 2050. • Updated information about Estonia • Suggested data for the entire model area (outside Estonia and Russia). • Discussion of how to model Russia.

18. stream

19. Stream • Heat demand in household and service sector • Development of building stock • New buildings (energy standards – are these complied with?) • Demolishment of existing buildings • Rates for renovation of existing buildings (cost and potentials) • Change in composition of building stock (e.g. multistory buildings => single-family house) • Demographic factors (e.g. rural => urban) • Heat supply in household and service sector • Economic comparison of costs of energy of heat supply using different collective and individual heating technologies • For different types of buildings: multistory, single-family, new dwellings • To determine scenarios for the expansion or contraction of district heating supply • To determine supply of energy in areas not supplied by district heating • Electricity demand in household and service sector • Choice of methodology • Historic trends, coupling with GDP, experience from other countries • Bottom-up, vintage modeling: require information about stock of electrical equipment, projections for their dissemination and development in specific demand

20. Energy demand with industry • Sector specific projections • Historic trends per sector coupled with GDP • Input from expert groups on expected future developments for most important branches • Transport sector • Growth rates in the demand for transport (personkilometers) • Coupling to GDP (historic trends),experience from other countries concerning saturation in transport demand • Development in efficiency of conventional combustion engine technologies • Introduction rate for new technologies such as electric vehicles, Compressed natural gas • Modal-change (car => bus/train/…) • Blending rates for biofuels • Diesel produced from oil-shale

21. Next step

22. Summary of day 1

23. Data report…

24. Model investments from 2018 • Allow investments in CHP in heat-only district heating • Nuclear • Fixed development + Allow investments in nuclear after 2030 • Finland, Poland, Baltic states • Include CCS • Gradually from 2025 • Potential per country. No sites in Estonia • Storage • Allow investments in • Heat storage (CHP) • Pumped hydro storage • Other technology (PHES)?

25. Russia and Belarus • 3 x 500 MW capacity + 700 MW to Kaliningrad • Carbon leakage… • Border tax reflecting CO2 price • Oil shale • Electricity generation from oil shale 100% sold on market from 1.1.2013 • Delete Oil shale at market price? • Alternative to 110% • 0%

26. 110% Reference CO2 market collapse CO2 concern Renewable energy focus Liberal market Combination scenario

27. Scenarios Internationalorientation Liberal market Environmental concern CO2 concern CO2 market collapse Reference Renewable energy focus

28. Next steps