What is a “Natural Disaster?”

1. What isa “Natural Disaster?” Putting the Themes Together: Hurricane Katrina

2. A Great “Natural Disaster?” • This raises the question: “What is a Natural Disaster?” • There are two words to consider here: Natural and Disaster • Something Natural implies that the cause is Nature (An Act of God) • A Disaster is something that has a serious, often fatal, impact on the lives and livelihood of a lot of people. (Flood, Drought, Earthquake). A disaster, once more, is something that we define relative to ourselves.

3. “Natural” • In some way, the forces of Nature act to threaten the lives and economies of people by disrupting the “normal” pattern of life. These are forces Man cannot influence • Perhaps one of the most Natural recent disasters was the December 26, 2004 Tsunami that killed over 250,000 people. • What caused this?

4. The Tsunami • There was a shift in the great continental plates under the ocean off the coast of Aceh, Indonesia. • As a result, there was a huge landslide under the sea displacing billions of tons of water very suddenly. • This water moved at >500 k.p.h. as a submarine force wave.

5. The Tsunami, 2 • This did not produce a “giant wave” like a tidal wave, instead, when it reached land it pushed billions of tons of water ahead of it up onto the land and many kms inland. • Nothing could resist this force; there was almost no warning, and people even stood and watched it approach, having no idea what was coming.

6. How Natural? • Our first response is to say that the Tsunami was totally beyond human influence and control—but was it? • If global warming, which may be caused by human activity (CO2), exists, then it could cause the sea to expand, and that change of weight could have caused the landslide??? • However, tsunamis and volcanoes are almost always totally natural. How much of a disaster they are depends, to some extent on us.

7. How Disastrous? • The casualty numbers could be influenced by: people living in dangerous coastal areas; lack of scientific warning; lack of emergency procedures; the failure of people to heed warnings. • The question is “How vulnerable are the people to the forces of Nature.” • The same size earthquake in Armenia or the US, caused 29,000 deaths in one case and 26 deaths in the other. Why?

8. So, what about Katrina? This is an actual image of HK from space before it made landfall. Its position is in the Gulf of Mexico. • Katrina varied between a force 4 and 5 • A force 5 hurricane will destroy almost everything in its path—it will spare only the very strongest buildings. • A Force 4 will take out 80% plus of everything through wind, tidal surges and rain (flooding). • So, is that a “Natural Disaster?” I mean, is there anything you can do about that?

9. Maybe Not • First of all, we know the damage that can be done (The Potential Risk), we can track the Hurricane from space, and we can plan ahead for what precautions we can take. We have warnings and plans. • If we do nothing, then we can be almost certain that the effect will be disastrous. • Keep this in mind.

10. What are the Human Variables? • How well do we track the storm in terms of its strength and direction? And how well do we get the information out? • How well have we planned for the consequences of the storm (collapse of levees, control of law and order, care of the injured and homeless, etc)? • How well have we planned to take people physically away from the risk (evacuation?)

11. Images

18. Responsibilities • Federal: Provide major infrastructure and law-and-order support. The bulk of the major relief: food, shelter, health. Prediction • State: The general emergency plan, providing resources for the City. The National Guard. • City: Immediate crisis: evacuation, information, coordination of local services. • But these are blurred: National Guard or Army? What happens when Police are also victims? FEMA was unprepared.

19. A “Natural Disaster?” • No. A human disaster in the face of two things (1) Preparing for a hurricane of this strength in a place where hurricanes happen all the time; (2) a collapse of intergovernmental relations. • The levees, for instance, should have been strengthened years ago, but nobody would provide the money. So, none of this should have happened. For 30 years, the engineers pleaded for strengthening the levees. The money was spent on casinos. • The poor had been ignored, both black and white.

20. The Major Policy Dilemma • First global climate change will produce moreextreme events, because that is how Nature gets rid of the extra energy trapped by Global Warming. • Our response to this global threat has been totally inadequate, especially in the USA. Devastating hurricanes will become more common. N Y State April 15, 2007

21. Problems to be Solved • First of all, we need to make some real decisions about Global Atmospheric change now. • Scientists cannot prove global warming because of the nature of science, and the impossibility of proving cause and effect. • Not proving something is not the same as not believing it.

22. Problems to be Solved • A Political decision is needed, and it will be a hard one affecting the way we live (consumption, transportation etc.) • But politics generally does not work in the “long term.” • Politicians do not want to promote the necessary curbs on the way we live. • So, they point to the fact that science cannot “prove” this problem exists.

23. Problems to be Solved Many scientists and researchers, including Dr. William Gray of the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project, believe that the US Gulf and Atlantic coasts are about 10 years into an increased cycle of tropical cyclone activity, which is likely to produce an above average number of events during the hurricane season over the next 15 to 20 years. If the coastlines suffer more destructive years as in the past season (2005), the capacity tightening in the insurance market that is already underway will continue, placing pressure on chief risk officers and risk managers trying to acquire affordable risk transfer protection for assets in highly exposed regions. • Where do we look for a “rational response” to the situation. • I would suggest the Insurance Companies • They have to compensate for loss, and so they focus on the issue of Risk. • They look at the frequency, intensity, duration, location and effect of the extreme events.

24. Problems to be Solved • With a catastrophe like New Orleans the Federal Government (FEMA) steps in to “help with relief and rebuilding.” • In other words they offset the risk, encouraging people to put themselves at risk again. • They are sidelining the attitude of the insurance companies by reducing their losses.

25. Change? • How much of a crisis do we need to demand a fundamental change of our behavior? • We just lost a city—should we lose more? How many? • The critical point is when we stop defining these things as “Acts of God.” This gets the politicians “off the hook.” • As a consequence the problem is not solved, only the symptoms. The situation will get worse.

26. Change? • A conference has been taking place in Montreal on global atmospheric change (“Global Warming). • The US has not really participated because it considers the Kyoto Protocol would be economically disastrous. • So, is “economics” more important than the sustainability of the human environment? • Economics, anyway, only reflects human values and priorities. Though you would hardly believe this from listening to economists.

27. Is Change Possible • Some scientists are now saying that it may be too late to remedy the situation. • Changes made now would take time to work through the system. • Another problem is that the climate is immensely complicated and not fully understood. • But that is not an argument for doing nothing.

28. Human Behavior • We may well be facing real disaster • But people do not necessarily behave rationally in the face of facts. • AIDS is totally preventable but we have 40,000,000 infected people • People often place short term satisfaction before long-term survival.

29. Other Implications • The Gulf Coast of the USA is where much of its Global Trade is carried out. Some of these ports have been destroyed • The Gulf of Mexico is the US’ major oil field, and the disruption of production sent the price of oil to $3.20 from $2.50 overnight. It emphasized US energy vulnerability in a very dramatic way. This could affect US Geopolitics (Iraq).

30. Lessons? • It is often said, especially by me, that Policy change comes as a result of crisis. This is bad, but it seems to be the way things are done. • We have just lost one of America’s main cities. How bad does it need to get? The key to all this is: “How we interpret the cause and effect of what really happened along the Gulf Coast. Policy is often about PERCEPTION.

31. Key Points • How long are we willing to question the existence of global atmospheric change? • How to resolve the “Natural or Man-Made” dilemma?Is the “relief and rehabilitation; Rebuild at any cost” a wise policy choice, given the fact that this could be a fast-worsening climate situation. • It demonstrates the difference between “crisis management” and “strategic management.” • It shows the importance of global coherence in the face of global problems.

32. Policy • Does it make any sense to say “We will rebuild New Orleans, whatever it takes?” • About half the population has not returned, and likely never will. • What is missing from policy is an understanding of the underlying process that turned this natural event into a catastrophic disaster.

33. Well, maybe we should admit there are some truly natural disasters after all—like this vision prepared by NASA