EFIMOD – a system of models for Forest Management

1. O.G. Chertov, M.A.Nadporozhskaya Biological Institute of St. Petersburg State University, St. Petersburg-Peterhoff, Russia L.G.Khanina, V.E.Smirnov Institute of Mathematical Problems in Biology, Russian Academy of Sciences, Pushchino, Moscow Region, Russia EFIMOD – a system of models for Forest Management A.S. Komarov, A.V. Mikhailov, S.S. Bykhovets, M.V.Bobrovsky, E.V.Zubkova Institute of Physicochemical and Biological Problems in Soil Science of Russian Academy of Sciences, Pushchino, Moscow Region, Russia

2. Short description of the EFIMOD model • EFIMOD is spatially explicit individual based model of forest ecosystem • The system consists of 3 main parts: tree sub model, soil sub model (ROMUL) and statistical climate generator (SCLISS) • Tree sub model is an individual growth simulator in dependence on light and soil nitrogen • ROMUL is the model of forest soil organic matter dynamics • SCLISS allows us to estimate soil temperature and moisture using measured standard meteorological data(statistical and long-term measured series )

3. EFIMOD 2 flow chart

4. EFIMOD 2: Tree sub model

5. EFIMOD 2: Soil sub model ROMUL

6. Tree species1 Tree species2 Tree species3 Litter & deadwood Foliage Foliages Foliages Branches Branches Branches Stem Stem Stem Coarse roots Coarse roots Coarse roots Fine roots Fine roots Fine roots EFIMOD modelinterconnections EFIMOD stand sub model Nav ROMUL sub model (soil)

7. The EFIMOD Input Data • Standard monthly climatic data • Monthly nitrogen input from the atmosphere • Standard inventory characteristics of the stand • Main soil hydrological characteristics • Pools of soil organic matter and nitrogen in organic and mineral soil

8. ROMUL validation: Measured and simulated CO2 emission from a soil in dependence on temperature Pajari, 1995 Matteucci et al., 2000 (in Schultze, 2000)

9. Model validation Jadråås, Sweden, Scots pine

10. EFIMOD validation: stem biomass for BFTCS Black spruce sites, Central Canada

11. Area of applicability • Evaluation of carbon and nitrogen dynamics in boreal forest ecosystems • Analysis of consequences of the different types of cuttings • Restoring of unmeasured data in the ecosystem (CO2 emission, mineral nitrogen). • Analysis of silvicultural operations (fertilizers, soil amendments, burning of cutting residuals etc.) • Analysis of carbon and nitrogen dynamics at fires and insect attacks

12. Climate Site classes Stand composition moisture fertility Case study The State Forest “Russky Les” is situated at 100 km South of Moscow (Russia) on Central East European Plain at the border between coniferous and broad-leaved forest zones with continental climate. 104 standswere selected (Total area is 273.4 ha) Влажность Частотное распределение ТУМов (Погребняк П.С.,1955)

13. Effects on forest ecosystems of climate change the availability of water? Global warming Spread of disease? ?

14. Climate change scenarios General circulation model GCM GISS, PCM, HadCM3, ECHAM4, CGCM, CSIRO et al. Climate change scenario HadCM3 + (UK, Hulme et al., 1999)Hadley Centre Coupled Model, v. 3 A1Fi Emissions Scenarios • A1: Rapid convergent growth: • A1Fi: Fossil-fuel Intensive • A1B: Balance • A1T: emphasis on new Technology • A2: Fragmented world • B1: Convergence with global environmental emphasis • B2: Local sustainability

15. Increasing Of Biomass Decreasing Of SOM Influence of Climate change on Carbon (C) dynamics Climate Change

16. What is impact of silvicultural activities on forest ecosystem development?

17. LRU ILL SCU NAT - Main cutting - thinning; - regeneration; Silvicultural regimes selected for 200-year simulation

18. Silvicultural regimes selected for 200-year simulation • Natural development (Nat). This scenario is a full protection of the forest in all forest compartments without cutting • Legal practice (LRU). The scenario describes managed forest with 4 thinnings (at 5, 10, 25 and 50 years), time of the final clear cutting depends on target species, with successful natural regeneration • Selective cutting system (SCU). Managed forest with 2 thinnings and then selective cuttings each 30 years (30% of basal area from above) • Illegal practice (ILL). It is a heavy upper thinning and removing of the best trees, clear cutting without conservation of natural regeneration

19. A case study experimental forestry“Russkii Les” (Moscow region) 273 ha 104 units

20. Difference of carbon in trees between last (200) and first time step of simulation NAT SCU NAT – natural development SCU –selective cutting LRU – legal practice ILL – illegal practice ILL LRU

21. Soil Carbon Maps (Organic Layer+Mineral Soil) kg/m2 Initial LRU NAT ILL SCU

22. Soil Carbon dynamics at different silvicultural regimes LRU NAT SCU ILL

23. Dynamics of Deadwood Carbon is produced with EFIMOD

24. Dynamics of soil carbon Mean carbon value in soil Difference of soil carbon between last and first time step of simulation LRU NAT NAT – natural development SCU –selective cutting LRU – legal practice ILL – illegal practice SCU ILL

25. Frequency distribution dynamics of stands with different Carbon stocks SCU Nat ILL LRU Brown:from 0 to 100 t/ha; White from 101 to 200 t/ha; Greenfrom 201

26. Total Carbon balance Carbon flows Carbon changes

27. Differences between C stock under stable climate and climate change Soil Carbon Tree Carbon NAT – natural development SCU –selective cutting LRU – legal practice ILL – illegal practice

28. Biodiversity assessment Tree dominant dynamics SCU NAT Initial LRU ILL

29. Biodiversity assessment Dynamics of functional groups in ground vegetation NAT SCU LRU ILL Initial

30. Biodiversity assessment Dynamics of species diversity ranks in ground vegetation NAT SCU LRU ILL Initial

31. Biodiversity assessment The simulation results showed • Total number of forest types is higher in all scenarios with cuttings relative to the NAT scenario • The NAT strategy leads to the growth of coniferous-broad-leaved forests close to the climax forest type of the study area • The NAT strategy leads to the highest species diversity in ground vegetation if a free forestdevelopment has taken place for rather long time • The SCU scenario lead to a simplification ofground vegetation together with a conservation of nemoral and boreal species • Scenarios with clear cuttings (LRU and ILL) maintain piny andmeadow groups in ground vegetation