SCIENCE AND SUSTAINABILITY— ARE WE ASKING THE RIGHT QUESTIONS?

1. SCIENCE AND SUSTAINABILITY— ARE WE ASKING THE RIGHT QUESTIONS? Brian J. Rothschild

2. THEME • WHAT IS THE ALL-IMPORTANT CONNECTION BETWEEN SUSTAINABILITY AND FISHERY SCIENCE/ MANAGEMENT? • AT PRESENT TIME, CONNECTION IS BASED UPON A COLLECTION OF WORDS • THESE WORDS ARE “SUSTAINABILITY PROXIES” • E.G., MAINTAIN BIODIVERSITY AND ECOSYSTEM SERVICES • CONVEY WARMTH AND FUZZINESS • NO UNIVERSAL DEFINITION • AS A CONSEQUENCE, SUSTAINABILITY IS SCIENTIFICALLY UNINTERPRETABLE • SUSTAINABILITY PROXIES HOLD AT STAKE BIOLOGICAL AND ECONOMIC CONSERVATION OF OUR FISHERY RESOURCES • DIVERT FUNDS FROM IMPORTANT PROGRAMS TO UNIMPORTANT PROGRAMS

3. PURPOSE OF TALK • TO KEEP IN MIND THE IMPORTANCE OF SUSTAINABILITY • TO POINT OUT A DECOUPLING BETWEEN SUSTAINABILITY PROXIES AND SCIENTIFIC REASONING • TO POINT OUT THAT THIS DECOUPLING EXTENDS TO LAWS AND REGULATIONS • TO SUGGEST THAT WE ARE AFFORDED A SIGNIFICANT OPPORTUNITY TO SLOW DOWN THE PROXY RHETORIC AND INCREASE FOCUS ON FUNDAMENTAL MANAGEMENT-RELATED SCIENTIFIC MISSIONS THAT WE ALL KNOW SO WELL

4. TO BEGIN OUR ANALYSIS WE NEED TO DEVELOP WORKING DEFINITIONS OF SCIENCE AND SUSTAINABILITY

5. WHAT IS SCIENCE? AN ACTIVITY THAT DIFFERENTIATES BETWEEN WHAT IS TRUE AND WHAT IS FALSE DIFFERENTIATION CAN ONLY BE PRECISE WHEN THE QUESTIONS ARE RELATIVELY SIMPLE

6. WHAT IS SUSTAINABILITY? • WHAT IS SUSTAINABILITY—DICTIONARY DEFINITIONS? • “ABLE TO BE MAINTAINED AT A CERTAIN LEVEL” • “ECOLOGY (ESP. OF...EXPLOITATION…) CONSERVINGANECOLOGICAL BALANCE BY AVOIDING DEPLETION OF NATURAL RESOURCES” • FROM A SCIENTIFIC POINT OF VIEW, WE DO NOT KNOW WHAT THESE SUSTAINABILITY PROXIES MEAN (EXCEPT IN EXTREME CONDITIONS)

7. EXAMPLES OF DIFFICULTY FROM A SCIENTIFIC PERSPECTIVE, WE KNOW SOMETHING ABOUT STOCK AND RECRUITMENT THEORY, YIELD PER RECRUIT THEORY, AND PRODUCTION THEORY BUT WE CANNOT PREDICT RECRUITMENT VARIABILITY; AND WHILE WE HAVE PRETTY GOOD GUESSES AT THE DYNAMICS OF SINGLE SPECIES, WE HAVE A HARD TIME CONSIDERING THE DYNAMICS OF TWO COUPLED SPECIES, LET ALONE AN ENTIRE ECOSYSTEM SO HOW DO WE FRAME SUSTAINABILITY PROXIES LIKE “CONSERVING AN ECOLOGICAL BALANCE” OR “AVOIDING DEPLETION OR MANAGING ENTIRE ECOSYSTEMS?”

8. SUSTAINABILITY PROXIES IT WOULD BE SIMPLE IF THERE WERE ONLY A FEW PROXIES—BUT THERE ARE HUNDREDS CONSIDER, FOR EXAMPLE, THE GOALS FROM THE CONVENTION ON BIOLOGICAL DIVERSITY

9. goals • PROMOTE THE CONSERVATION OF THEBIOLOGICAL DIVERSITY OF ECOSYSTEMS, HABITATS, ANDBIOMASS • PROMOTE THE CONSERVATION OF SPECIES DIVERSITY • PROMOTE THE CONSERVATION OF GENETIC DIVERSITY • PROMOTE SUSTAINABLE USE AND CONSUMPTION • PRESSURE FROM HABITAT LOSS, LAND USE CHANGE AND DEGRADATION, AND UNSUSTAINABLE WATER USE, REDUCED • CONTROL THREATS FROM INVASIVE ALIEN SPECIES • ADDRESS CHALLENGES TO BIODIVERSITYFROM CLIMATE CHANGE ANDPOLLUTION • MAINTAIN CAPACITY OF ECOSYSTEMS TO DELVER GOODS AND SERVICES AND SUPPORT LIVELIHOODS • MAINTAIN SOCIO-CULTURAL DIVERSITY OF INDIGENOUS AND LOCAL COMMUNITIES • ENSURE THE FAIR AND EQUITABLE SHARING OF BENEFITS ARISING OUT OF THE USE OF GENETIC RESOURCES

10. SO WE HAVE A DILEMMA • GROUPS AND INDIVIDUALS CONCERNED WITH CONSERVATION OF OUR NATURAL RESOURCES DEMAND SUSTAINABILITY • THESE INDIVIDUALS SEEM CONVINCED THAT SUSTAINABILITY CAN BE DEFINED SCIENTIFICALLY • THIS IS DONE BY FORMING SUSTAINABILITY PROXIES • BUT SCIENTISTS CAN ONLY GRASP BITS AND PIECES OFSUSTAINABILITY AND ITS PROXIES • SO AS A RESULT WE HAVE A “TOWER OF BABEL” APPROACH TO SUSTAINABILITY • THE TOWER OF BABEL IS DRIVING OUR LAWS AND POLICIES • AND BECAUSE OF THIS WE HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO MUDDLE THROUGH • MUDDLING THROUGH CONSERVATION PROBLEMS IS NOT AN OPTION IN A WORLD WITH 6 BILLION HUMANS

11. HAVING SAID THIS • THERE ARE ACTIONABLE STEPS WE CAN TAKE ON MORE OPERATIONAL ISSUES THAT RELATE TO SUSTAINABILITY • THESE INCLUDE • MANAGING HABITAT • DEALING WITH OVER AND UNDERFISHING • REBUILDING STOCKS ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT THEY ARE RESPONSIVE TO REDUCING FISHING MORTALITY • REALISTICALLY DEALING WITH PRECAUTION

12. CONSIDER, FOR EXAMPLE, “OVERFISHING”COD NORTH SEA NOTE: COD STOCK BEGINS TO DECLINE AT LOW FISHING MORTALITY Trajectories of North Sea cod spawning stock biomass (SSB); fishing mortality; C. finmarchicus; and C. heligolandicus abundance for four stanzas of time. The data have been normalized in standard deviation units. The trajectories are smoothed curves fitted through the data using the Loess smoother (tension = .35).

13. CONSIDER, FOR EXAMPLE, “OVERFISHING” “NORTHERN” COD NOTE: COD STOCK BEGINS TO DECLINE AT LOW FISHING MORTALITY Trajectories of northwest Atlantic cod spawning stock biomass and fishing mortality for five stanzas of time. The data have been normalized in standard deviation units. The trajectories are smooth curves fitted through the data using the Loess smoother (tension = .35).

14. NORTHERN COD • A FISHING MORATORIUM IMPOSED SUBSEQUENT TO THE COD COLLAPSE DID NOT RESULT IN A RECOVERY • THE NATURAL MORTALITY RATE (I.E., MORTALITY INDEPENDENT OF FISHING) OF COD INCREASED BY A FACTOR OF FOUR • COD GROWTH RATES DECLINED SUBSTANTIALLY • INDIVIDUAL COD CONDITION FACTORS DECLINED • CHANGES IN THE TYPICAL FOOD OF THE COD WERE EVIDENT • ASSOCIATED SPECIES EXHIBITED DECLINES IN ABUNDANCE, GROWTH, AND CONDITION • ABNORMAL QUANTITIES OF COLD, RELATIVELY FRESH WATER WERE EVIDENT THROUGHOUT THE REGION

15. CONSIDER, FOR EXAMPLE, “OVERFISHING” NORWEGIAN SPRING SPAWNING HERRING AGAIN DYNAMICS APPEAR UNCOUPLED FROM FISHING MORTALITY Trajectories of NSSH spawning stock biomass, fishing mortality, and zooplankton index for four stanzas of time. The data have been normalized in standard deviation units. The trajectories are smooth curves fitted through the data using the Loess smoother (tension = .35).

16. WHAT DO WE CONCLUDE? • THE CONSERVATION MOVEMENT IS APPROPRIATELY AND RIGHTFULLY CONCERNED WITH THE CONSERVATION OF OUR NATURAL RESOURCES • HOWEVER, THE DEMANDS OF THE PROXIES ARE OUTSTRIPPING OUR CAPABILITY TO RESPOND AND DIRECTING SCARCE BUDGETARY AND PERSONNEL RESOURCES TO SECOND ORDER PROBLEMS • THE HUGE GAP BETWEEN WHAT IS REQUIRED AND WHAT WE KNOW IS LEADING TO PATHOLOGICAL DECISION MAKING

17. NEXT STEPS SHINE LIGHT ON REQUIREMENTS INCREASE FUNDAMENTAL KNOWLEDGE ORGANIZE AND COMMUNICATE AT A CRITICAL MASS LEVEL