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Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review. June 30 - July 2, 2009. Ocean Ecology and Biogeochemistry in GFDL's Earth System Model. Presented by John Dunne. Ocean Ecology and Biogeochemistry in GFDL's Earth System Model. TOPAZ representation of the Carbon Cycle

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Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review

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  1. Geophysical Fluid Dynamics LaboratoryReview June 30 - July 2, 2009

  2. Ocean Ecology and Biogeochemistryin GFDL's Earth System Model Presented by John Dunne

  3. Ocean Ecology and Biogeochemistry in GFDL's Earth System Model • TOPAZ representation of the Carbon Cycle • Results of ‘HISTORICAL’ ocean/ice simulation forced by atmospheric reanalysis (Common Ocean Reference Experiment Inter-annually variable forcing version 2) • Results of ESM2.1 IPCC SRES A1B simulation

  4. Tracers Of Phytoplankton with Allometric Zooplankton (TOPAZ) simulates the mechanisms that control the ocean carbon cycle Biogeochemistry Phytoplankton ecology DOM cycling Particle sinking N2-fixer Filter feeder Atm. Deposition Small phyto. Protist Recycled nutrients Gas exchange River Input Removal DOM Large phyto. New nutrients Sediment Input Detritus Scavenging Carbon Oxygen Nitrogen Phosphorus Iron Alkalinity Silicon Lithogenic CaCO3 Dunne et al (2005, 2007)

  5. HISTORICAL simulation reproduces SeaWiFS chlorophyll variability and puts it in a multidecadal context log(SeaWiFS satellite Chlorophyll) log(Model Chlorophyll) Simulated expansion of oligotrophic gyres (ocean deserts) is similar toSeaWIFS (Polovina et al, 2008) and within a large, multidecadal envelope. N Atlantic N Pacific Indian S Atlantic S Pacific

  6. ESM2.1 ocean CO2 uptake response to atmospheric CO2and climate forcing similar to previous work Significant reduction in anthropogenic CO2 uptake due to climate change (Sarmiento and Le Quere, 1996; Sarmiento et al., 1998) Overall response Sabine (2005) Little climate change effect on natural CO2 partitioning

  7. Model captures natural CO2 cycling and anthropogenic CO2 invasion CO2 Flux out of ocean (mol m-2 yr-1) Takahashi (2006) Anthropogenic CO2 Inventory (mol m-2) Sabine et al (2004); Key et al. (2004) 1.4 PgC/yr 99-137 PgC Observed 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 2.3 PgC/yr 104 PgC historical 2.0 PgC/yr 99 PgC ESM2.1

  8. ESM2.1 projects ocean acidification changes with severe implications for CaCO3 cycling Acidification from 1860 to 2100 (% [H+] change) Resulting 52% decrease in calcite export from 100m 1860 2000 2100 Atlantic This reduction in calcite export similar to previous work (Ridgewell et al. 2006) This reduction in calcite export reduces the efficiency of sinking organic material to 1000 m by 16% Pacific

  9. ESM2.1 projects modest decrease in total productivity and major decrease in large phytoplankton Projected change in global productivity from 1860 (%) 8 4 0 -4 -8 -12 -16 Little change in N2 fixation 2% decrease in total productivity Total Productivity Large Phytoplankton Productivity N2 Fixation 11% decrease in large phytoplankton productivity ‘winners and losers’, but more losers than winners 13% increase in oligotrophic gyre (ocean desert) area

  10. GFDL’s TOPAZ ocean biogeochemical model has been developed to simulate ocean carbon cycling and its biogeochemical controls TOPAZ reproduces regional and temporal variability in chlorophyll and suggests the recent expansion of oligotrophic gyres (ocean deserts) is within the envelope of multi-decadal variability TOPAZ reproduces observations of natural CO2 cycling and historical anthropogenic CO2 invasion and predicts future CO2 uptakeconsistent with previous work ESM2.1 predicts significant decrease in CaCO3 cycling and large phytoplankton production and increase in oligotrophic areas over this century Summary of Ocean Biogeochemical Results

  11. Geophysical Fluid Dynamics LaboratoryReview June 30 - July 2, 2009

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