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Major Climate Anomalies during 2005 Gerry Bell Presented by Vernon Kousky

Major Climate Anomalies during 2005 Gerry Bell Presented by Vernon Kousky Climate Prediction Center/ NOAA/ NWS National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Camp Springs, MD. Outline. Global Precipitation and Temperatures Weak El Niño: August 2004 –April 2005 Strong MJO Activity

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Major Climate Anomalies during 2005 Gerry Bell Presented by Vernon Kousky

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  1. Major Climate Anomalies during 2005 Gerry Bell Presented by Vernon Kousky Climate Prediction Center/ NOAA/ NWS National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Camp Springs, MD

  2. Outline • Global Precipitation and Temperatures • Weak El Niño: August 2004 –April 2005 • Strong MJO Activity • Active Atlantic Hurricane Season • Suppressed East Pacific Hurricane Season • Wet Winter and Spring ends western U.S. drought • Dry in Western Europe since October 2004

  3. October 2004 – September 2005 Surface Temperature Rankings Since 1950 • Warm: • Atlantic Ocean • Africa • Australia • Amazon Basin Red is the warmest. Purple is the coldest

  4. October 2004 – September 2005 Precipitation Departures (mm) • Wet: • Western/ Central Equatorial Pacific • Indian Monsoon Region • Southwestern U.S. • Tropical Atlantic (Since 1995) • Sahel Monsoon Region (Since 1995) • Dry: • Indonesia • East-Central Eq. Pacific • Amazon Basin (since 1995) • Gulf of Guinea Region

  5. Warm Major Regional Anomalies during 2005 Warm Warm Warm Weak El Nino Strong MJO Activity

  6. Major Precipitation Anomalies during 2005 Drought Ends Wet Dry Dry Summer Dry Dry Dry

  7. Monsoon Rains During 2005 Dry Wet Avg toWet Wet Dry Dry Dry Avg Avg 2005 Monsoons: CPC Monsoon Working Group: Poster 2.5

  8. Hurricanes/ Cyclones/ Typhoons during 2005 10 Landfalling Typhoons Active Atlantic Hurricanes Inactive East Pac. hurricanes 7 U.S. landfalling TC’s 5 Cyclones 7 Cyclones

  9. Weak El Niño: August 2004 - April 2005

  10. Niño Region Indices show Weak El Nino JUL OCT JAN APR 2004 2005 Largest positive SST anomalies (+1.2C) in Niño 4 region. Niño 3.4 Anomalies only reach +0.8C Niño 3 Anomalies only reach +0.65C. Oceanic Kelvin Wave No ENSO Signal in Niño 1+2 region

  11. Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) Anomalies: 5N-5S NOV Suppressed convection east of date line indicating weak El Niño. Strong intra-seasonal variability evident. DEC JAN Time FEB MAR APR 0 60E 120E 180 120W 60W 0 Longitude

  12. MJO Activity during January-September Strongest since 1997 Smears ENSO signal Influences Western U.S. Precipitation Intraseasonal fluctuations in Atlantic, Eastern Pacific Indian Ocean Hurricanes See talk by Jon Gottschalck et al. 3:30 Today

  13. Madden / Julian Oscillation (MJO) 200-hPa Velocity Potential Anomalies (5N-5S) MJO activity during December 2004-May 2005 and July-September 2005 dominated tropical divergence anomalies.

  14. Oceanic Heat Content in Equatorial Pacific (ºC) Shows El Niño warming and Kelvin Waves Kelvin Waves triggered by fluctuations in the strength of the low-level zonal winds associated with MJO activity.

  15. Another Very Active Atlantic Hurricane Season and Another Below-Normal East Pacific Season See talk by Chelliah and Bell (This Session) See poster by Bell and Chelliah: Session 2, P 2.1

  16. NOAA’s 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Outlooks 2 August 16 May 2005 2005 2005 Outlook Outlook Totals Chance Above Normal 95-100% 70% Tropical Storms 18-21 12-15 22 Hurricanes 9-11 7-9 12 Major Hurricanes 5-7 3-5 6 ACE % of Median 180-270% 120-190% >200% Higher prediction made in August reflects record July activity.

  17. NOAA’s 2005 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Outlook 16 May 2005 2005 Outlook Totals to date 70% Chance of Below Normal Season Tropical Storms 11-15 15 Hurricanes 6-8 7 Major Hurricanes 2-4 2 ACE % of Median 45-95% 65%

  18. 2005 Since 1995, 9 of 11 Atlantic hurricane seasons have been above normal. Seven years have been “hyperactive” (ACE > 175% of median) We are 10 years into an active hurricane era that can last 20+ years.

  19. Anomalous Conditions During 15 June-31 July Inter-hemispheric symmetry of circulation anomalies--- linked to suppressed convection near date line 200-hPa Streamfunction Anomalies Vertical Wind Shear Anomalies (Shaded) 200-hPa Height Anomalies (Contours) Extremely low vertical wind shear linked to positive height anomalies over western Atlantic. Main Development Region

  20. 15 August-30 September Vertical Wind Shear Anomalies (Shaded) 200-hPa Heights (Contours) Extremely low vertical wind shear persists. Ridge persists over SE U.S. Major hurricanes form in Gulf of Mexico where vertical wind shear is almost zero.

  21. Western Pacific: 20 Named Storms 14 Typhoons 7 Super Typhoons (> 125 knots) 10 landfalling Typhoons

  22. Very Stormy in Western U.S. ends Drought (December-May) Exceptionally Warm and Wet in Midwest and East (December-January) See Complete CPC Analysis http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/california_assessment_2005.pdf

  23. Mid-December Through Mid-January Total Precipitation % of Normal Precipitation

  24. Conditions Typify Major West Coast Precipitation Events Key Circulation Features:1. Blocking Ridge2. Deep Trough3. Flow Undercutting Block (Pineapple Express) shows links to MJO

  25. Western Europe Drought (October 2004 - Present)

  26. Percentage of Days with Positive and Negative 500-hPa Heights Anomalies Persistent pattern of above-average heights is major cause of the drought in western Europe. Positive height anomalies consistent with extreme warmth in North Atlantic.

  27. Summary • Weak El Niño: • Strong MJO Activity • Monsoons: • Enhanced in Western Africa, portions of India • Suppressed in Amazon Basin, Indonesia, southwestern U.S. • Active Atlantic Hurricanes , Below-normal eastern Pacific Hurricanes • Both Well forecast • Ongoing multi-decadal signal since 1995 • Wet Winter and Spring ends western U.S. drought • Dry in western Europe since October 2004

  28. Extra’s 1. New England Flooding during mid-October

  29. Northeastern U.S. Heavy Rains/ Flooding (mid-October)

  30. New England Rainfall Totals: 9-17 October 2005

  31. Circulation: 9-12 October 2005 200-hPa Heights and Anomalies 850-hPa Heights and Anomalies

  32. Circulation: 9-12 October 2005

  33. Palmer Drought Index Ending 21 May 2004 Drought throughout Western United States in 2004. Moderate/ Severe Drought Ending 21 May 2005 Extremely Moist Drought ends in Southwest and Inter-mountain regions. Drought confined to Montana and Wyoming by late May.

  34. Standardized, Area-Averaged 500-hPa Height Anomalies

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