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Universidad Politécnica de Madrid & Universidad de santiago de Compostela (PRUDENCE PROJECT)

Agricultural impact studies in areas of complex orography: the need for high resolution climate models in the Iberian Peninsula. Universidad Politécnica de Madrid & Universidad de santiago de Compostela (PRUDENCE PROJECT). CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004.

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Universidad Politécnica de Madrid & Universidad de santiago de Compostela (PRUDENCE PROJECT)

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  1. Agricultural impact studies in areas of complex orography:the need for high resolution climate models in the Iberian Peninsula Universidad Politécnica de Madrid & Universidad de santiago de Compostela (PRUDENCE PROJECT) CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  2. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography M. Inés Mínguez, Margarita Ruiz-Ramos, Carlos H. Díaz-Ambrona, Miguel Quemada and Federico Sau IT: Daniel del Valle Sergio de GruijterUPM & USC PRUDENCE PROJECT Prediction Uncertainties Describing European Climate change and Effects CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  3. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography FORCING A2 & B2 SCENARIOS (SRES) AGCMs RCMs Agricultural Impact (Crop Models) CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  4. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography RCMs in PRUDENCE • Comparison among 9 RCMs • Forcing with 1 RGM: HadAM3H (less in Arpège RCM which has it’s own forcing s.) • 2 climate change scenarios: A2 & B2 CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  5. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography RCMs in PRUDENCE 1. HadRM3H (HC: Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research) 2. RegCM (ICTP: The Abdus Salam Intl. Centre for Theoretical Physiscs) 3. CHRM (ETH: Swiss Federal Institute of Technology) 4. RACMO (KNMI: The Royal Netherland Meteorological Institute) 5. ARPÈGE (MF: Meteo France) CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  6. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography RCMs in PRUDENCE 6. CLM (GKSS: GKSS FORSCHUNGSZENTRUM; Institute for Coastal Research) 7. REMO (MPI: Max Planck Institute for Meteorological Research) 8. PROMES (UCM: Universidad Complutense de Madrid) 9. HIRHAM (DMI: Danish Meteorological Institute) CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  7. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography Crop models used in PRUDENCE • Physiological type models: DSSAT3.5-CERES (mechanistic model; Jones et. al., 2003) • Cropping system-type model: CropSyst (simpler model; Stockle et al., 2003) Non-linear response in both types. CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  8. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography Compensating effects of climate change reflected in models • CO2 increase (for a given T)  • Increase in photosynthetic rates • Decrease in Transpiration rates (ET) • T increase  - Increase in evapotranspiration (ET) - Shorter crop cycles (thermal time) CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  9. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography Crop models used in PRUDENCE INPUTS: • Daily weather data: SR, Tmax, Tmin, P (Optional: VPD, wind speed) • Soil profile caracteristics LL, DUL & SAT (for each soil layer) • Species charaterisitics (eg wheat) and variety (eg cv. Anza, Marius) Genetic coefficients that allow to define thousands of genotypes • Soil initial conditions (soil water content) CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  10. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography Crop simulations • Climate change impact assessment - Use of winter (wheat) vs summer crops (maize) to discriminate between seasons • Crop management (Irrigated and Rainfed) for changing uncertainty levels CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  11. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography Adding Uncertainties • from the RCMs predictions • from the crop models per se • from the extrapolation of crop models, tested within a limited sample of real conditions to a much larger domain • soil profiles (DUL, LL, SAT and depth) CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  12. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography Changing uncertainty levels Greater uncertainty level: rain-fed systems • Rainfall data • Soil profiles: LL, DUL, SAT, depth • Initial soil conditions • Crop responses to water stress CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  13. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography Smaller uncertainty level: irrigated systems (if water available) • Potential yield simulation (elimination of water stress) • Spatial variability in soil textures and depth has much less influence in yield • Rainfall predictions do not affect yields Effect of Tmax, Tmin and SR CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  14. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography Crop model calibration and validation has to focus on the main processes involved at crop and cropping systems level • phenology, biomass and yield • ETc and net irrigation requirements CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  15. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography Spatial scales with impact models • Crop model calibration and validation: Site-specific Some agricultural areas outside the calibration (validation) • Crop models generate data within the range recorded by MAPYA CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  16. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  17. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography Soil data base: 34 soil groups specific profiles PROMES land-grids CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  18. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography Species/cvs for season discrimination • Autumn-winter-spring for winter (cv. Marius) and spring wheat (cv. Anza) rainfed and irrigated (ETmax) Sow. 15 october • Spring-summer maize (irrigated) Sow. 15 April; 15 May; 1 June CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  19. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography Filters • Varieties (CVs) with different cold requirements for flower induction: spring (Anza) vs winter (Marius) cultivars enhancing the important differences in T (Tmin) in winter Winter wheat: vernalization needs have to be fulfilled. CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  20. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography Simulations • Current: 1960-1990 • A2 or B2: 2070-2100 Outputs: average of 30 years (current & A2 or B2) Results are presented in maps: A2 or B2/Current (%) or Relative Yield (%) CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  21. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography A 2 / c o n t r o l R e l a t i v e Y i e l d ( % ) < 5 0 5 0 - 7 0 7 0 - 9 0 9 0 - 1 1 0 1 1 0 - 1 3 0 1 3 0 - 1 5 0 1 5 0 - 2 0 0 > 2 0 0 C r o p f a i l u r e s REMO winter wheat rain-fed CERES A2/crtl CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  22. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography A 2 / c u r r e n t R e l a t i v e Y i e l d ( % ) < 5 0 5 0 - 7 0 7 0 - 9 0 9 0 - 1 1 0 1 1 0 - 1 3 0 1 3 0 - 1 5 0 1 5 0 - 2 0 0 > 2 0 0 C r o p f a i l u r e s REMO winter wheat irrigated CERES A2/crtl CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  23. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography HadAM3H A2driving conditions Relative yield CERES- Spring Wheat (DSSAT) Irrigated Sowing date: 15 october CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  24. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography A 2 / c u r r e n t R e l a t i v e Y i e l d ( % ) < 5 0 5 0 - 7 0 7 0 - 9 0 9 0 - 1 1 0 1 1 0 - 1 3 0 1 3 0 - 1 5 0 1 5 0 - 2 0 0 > 2 0 0 C r o p f a i l u r e s HadAM3H (HC) CERES-Spring Wheat A2 Irrigated CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  25. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography A 2 / c u r r e n t R e l a t i v e Y i e l d ( % ) < 5 0 5 0 - 7 0 7 0 - 9 0 9 0 - 1 1 0 1 1 0 - 1 3 0 1 3 0 - 1 5 0 1 5 0 - 2 0 0 > 2 0 0 C r o p f a i l u r e s RegCM (ICTP) CERES-Spring Wheat A2 Irrigated CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  26. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography A 2 / c u r r e n t R e l a t i v e Y i e l d ( % ) < 5 0 5 0 - 7 0 7 0 - 9 0 9 0 - 1 1 0 1 1 0 - 1 3 0 1 3 0 - 1 5 0 1 5 0 - 2 0 0 > 2 0 0 C r o p f a i l u r e s CHRM (ETH) CERES-Spring Wheat A2 Irrigated CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  27. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography A 2 / c u r r e n t R e l a t i v e Y i e l d ( % ) < 5 0 5 0 - 7 0 7 0 - 9 0 9 0 - 1 1 0 1 1 0 - 1 3 0 1 3 0 - 1 5 0 1 5 0 - 2 0 0 > 2 0 0 C r o p f a i l u r e s RACMO (KNMI) CERES-Spring Wheat A2 Irrigated CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  28. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography A 2 / c u r r e n t R e l a t i v e Y i e l d ( % ) < 5 0 5 0 - 7 0 7 0 - 9 0 9 0 - 1 1 0 1 1 0 - 1 3 0 1 3 0 - 1 5 0 1 5 0 - 2 0 0 > 2 0 0 C r o p f a i l u r e s Arpège CERES-Spring Wheat A2 Irrigated CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  29. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography A 2 / c u r r e n t R e l a t i v e Y i e l d ( % ) < 5 0 5 0 - 7 0 7 0 - 9 0 9 0 - 1 1 0 1 1 0 - 1 3 0 1 3 0 - 1 5 0 1 5 0 - 2 0 0 > 2 0 0 C r o p f a i l u r e s CLM (GKSS) CERES-Spring Wheat A2 Irrigated CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  30. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography A 2 / c u r r e n t R e l a t i v e Y i e l d ( % ) < 5 0 5 0 - 7 0 7 0 - 9 0 9 0 - 1 1 0 1 1 0 - 1 3 0 1 3 0 - 1 5 0 1 5 0 - 2 0 0 > 2 0 0 C r o p f a i l u r e s HadRM3H (HadleyC) CERES-Spring Wheat A2 Irrigated CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  31. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography A 2 / c u r r e n t R e l a t i v e Y i e l d ( % ) < 5 0 5 0 - 7 0 7 0 - 9 0 9 0 - 1 1 0 1 1 0 - 1 3 0 1 3 0 - 1 5 0 1 5 0 - 2 0 0 > 2 0 0 C r o p f a i l u r e s REMO (MPI) CERES-Spring Wheat A2 Irrigated CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  32. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography A 2 / c u r r e n t R e l a t i v e Y i e l d ( % ) < 5 0 5 0 - 7 0 7 0 - 9 0 9 0 - 1 1 0 1 1 0 - 1 3 0 1 3 0 - 1 5 0 1 5 0 - 2 0 0 > 2 0 0 C r o p f a i l u r e s PROMES (UCM) CERES-Spring Wheat A2 Irrigated CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  33. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography A 2 / c u r r e n t R e l a t i v e Y i e l d ( % ) < 5 0 5 0 - 7 0 7 0 - 9 0 9 0 - 1 1 0 1 1 0 - 1 3 0 1 3 0 - 1 5 0 1 5 0 - 2 0 0 > 2 0 0 C r o p f a i l u r e s HIRHAM (DMI) CERES-Spring Wheat A2 Irrigated CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  34. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography Crop model • Differences between the two crop models outputs exist: CERES-DSSAT discriminates more among polygons CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  35. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography Changes in irrigation requirements for maize A2 PROMES B2 CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  36. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography 50 km vs 25 km CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  37. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography Some conclusions • Regions/areas show similar yield trends in many RCM models • Influence in rainfed crops of Tmin vs rainfall • All models detect winter vs spring wheat • Higher resolution: more differences among soil polygons CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  38. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography Still working on: • A2, B2 scenarios • 50 km vs 25 km (grid) • Other forcings: try different GCMs with the same RCM. THANK YOU CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  39. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

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