Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment Agriculture Sector

1. Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment Agriculture Sector Jakarta, Indonesia23 March 2006 Ana IglesiasUniversidad Politécnica de Madrid

2. Objective • To provide participants with information on V&A assessment for the agriculture sector • A general discussion on the impacts of climate variability and change on agriculture and food security • Methods, tools and issues to assess V&A • PC based training on methods, tools, issues

3. Outline • Climate variability and change, agriculture and food security (½ h) • Key differential vulnerabilities (½ h) • Key issues (½ h) • Integration and cooperation (social, water) • Calibration • Extreme events • Uncertainties • PC based training: Models, assisting tools for stakeholders, risk management (3 h) • Designing the framework (½ h) • Participatory evaluation and prioritization of adaptation (½ h) • PC based training (2 h) Total: (4 ½ h)

4. Agenda

5. Climate, agriculture, and food security • Climate change is one stress among many affecting agriculture and the population that depends on it

6. Maize production, Zimbabwe Observations: Increased drought • Persistent drying trend in parts of Africa has affected food production, including freshwater fisheries, industrial and domestic water supplies, hydropower generation(Magazda, 1986; Benson and Clay, 1998; Chifamba, 2000; Iglesias and Moneo, 2005)

7. Q/ha 624mm Kairouan (Tunisia) Rainfall 111mm Cereal Yields Drought in the Mediterranean Correlation betwen total rainfall and agricultural production r=0.82 Source: R. Mougou, INRGREF

8. Drought in the Mediterranean Source: Iglesias and Moneo, 2004

9. Longer growing seasons … In Australia, climate change appears to have increased wheat yield by about 10 to 20% since 1952 (Nicholls, 1997)

10. Economic, social, demographic, land use changes Climate change Social vulnerability Multiple interactions, vulnerability and adaptation Systems and social groups that need to adapt

11. Social vulnerability “Starvation is the characteristic of some people not having enough food to eat. It is not the characteristic of there being not enough food to eat. While the later can cause the former, it is but one of many possible causes.” A. Sen, Poverty and Famines, An Essay on Entitlement and Deprivation, 1981, pg 1

12. Multiple interactions: Stakeholders define adaptation Scientists Civil stake-holders Policy makers

13. Conclusions for policy Models Assumptions Theory Data Concepts are important: The big picture …

14. Agriculture: empirical evidence

15. Source: Wei Xiong, Erda Lin, Xiu Yang, et al., 2006

16. Possible benefits Possible drawbacks

17. Weeds, pests and diseases • Weeds, pests, and diseased damage about one half of the potential production every year

18. Climate change affects crop production • Changes in biophysical conditions • Changes in socio-economic conditions in response to changes in crop productivity (farmers’ income; markets and prices; poverty; malnutrition and risk of hunger; migration)

19. 2020s 2050s 2080s Yield Change (%) -30 -20 -10 -5 -2.5 0 2.5 5 10 20 30 40 How might global climate change affect food production? Percentage change in average crop yields for the Hadley Center global climate change scenario (HadCM3). Direct physiological effects of CO2 and crop adaptation are taken into account. Crops modeled are: wheat, maize, and rice. Source: NASA/GISS; Rosenzweig and Iglesias, 2002; Parry et al, 2004

20. Limits to adaptation • Technological limits (i.e., crop tolerance to water-logging or high temperature; water reutilization) • Social limits (i.e., acceptance of biotechnology) • Political limits (i.e., rural population stabilization may not be optimal land use planning) • Cultural limits (i.e., acceptance of water price and tariffs)

21. Developed-Developing country differences Potential change (%) in national cereal yields for the 2080s (compared with 1990) using the HadCM3 GCM and SRES scenarios (Parry et al., 2004)

22. 200 160 120 Additional Millions of People 80 40 0 2020 2050 2080 B2 - Local Stewardship A2 - Regional Enterprise Additional people at risk of hunger Parry et al., 2004

23. Additional population under extreme stress of water shortage 120 Population (millions) 80 40 0 2020 2050 2080 Interaction and integration: Water University of Southampton

24. Conclusions • While global production appears stable, . . . • . . . regional differences in crop production are likely to grow stronger through time, leading to a significant polarization of effects, . . . • . . . with substantial increases in prices and risk of hunger amongst the poorer nations • Most serious effects are at the margins (vulnerable regions and groups)

25. Agenda

26. Key differential vulnerabilities • Climate change is one stress among many now affecting agriculture and the population that depends on it • Integration of results and stakeholder definition of adaptation strategies are essential to formulate assessments relevant to policy • Potential future consequences depend on: • The region and the agricultural system [Where?, The baseline is important] • The magnitude [How much? Scenarios are important] • The socio-economic response [What happens in response to change? Adaptive capacity (internal adaptation) and planned stakeholder adaptation and policy]

27. Map of the night-time city lights of the world (DMSP: NASA and NOAA) Where? Systems and social groups

28. How much? Climate and SRES scenarios Had CM2 model, 2050s Temperature change Precipitation change

29. What happens in response to change? • Adaptive capacity (internal adaptation) • Planned adaptation

30. Definition of key vulnerabilities • Expert judgement • Stakeholder consultation • Empirical evidence • Scientific knowledge of processes • Models are assisting tools

31. Check list and ranking of potential vulnerabilities - Examples • Components of the farming system particularly vulnerable • Stress on water/irrigation systems • Domestic agricultural production • Food shortages that lead to an increase in hunger • Agricultural exports • Prices to consumers • Government policies such as agricultural pricing, support, research and development • Greater stress on natural resources or contribute to environmental degradation (e.g., through land-use change, soil degradation, changes in water supply and water quality, pesticide use, etc.) • Research/extension system capability for providing adaptation advice to farmers • Technological options in place

32. Key vulnerabilities Who can adapt? Who is vulnerable? Individuals particularly vulnerable to environmental change are those with …. • Relatively high exposures to changes • High sensitivities to changes • Low coping and adaptive capacities • Low resilience and recovery potential

33. Agenda

34. Key issues • Integration and cooperation (social, water) • Calibration • Extreme events • Uncertainties

35. Key issues: Pressures and solutions • Water • Population • Economic and social development • Technology (water desalination, reuse, efficiency) • Agricultural technology • Cooperation • Improved management

36. Water

37. Population

38. Economic and social development

39. 120 Population (millions) 80 40 0 2020 2050 2080 Integration and cooperation Additional population under extreme stress of water shortage Source: University of Southampton

40. Water • The agriculture sector needs water supply scenarios • Policy defines how much water can be used by agriculture • Water policy and rights are extremely hard to change

41. Water conflicts

42. Transboundary surface and groundwater • Water can lead to political hostilities and many regions with political conflicts also share water resources www.bgr.de/app/whymap/

43. Source: EEA, CEDEX Political and cultural process • The political process reflects the view about future of the resources and economies, therefore defines the range of adaptation options • Cultural impediments to change traditional water management add complexity to the design of adaptation strategies

44. Tunisia: National strategy on water management (Source: R. Mougou) Current and projected water demand (%) 1996 2030 Drinking 11.5 17.7 Irrigation 83.7 73.5 Tourism 0.7 1.5 Industrial 4.1 7.3 • Resources management • Mobilization, storage (over 1,000 hill reservoirs in 10 years), and transfer of the resources • Use of the non conventional resources: saline and waste water for irrigation (95,400 and 7,600 ha) • Desalinization • Demand management • Water saving in irrigation (up to 60% Government subsidies)

45. Aim Analysis of no regret options for the future Current vulnerability • Dependence on the Nile as the primary water source • Large traditional agricultural base • Long coastline already undergoing both intensifying development and erosion • Problems derived from population increase • Agriculture entirely based on irrigation (water from the Nile, and to lesser degree from groundwater) • Soil conditions and water quality deteriorating Example: Integrated assessment in Egypt Source: El-Shaer et al., 1997; Strzpek et al., 1999

46. Cooperation and integration • Your expert opinion, consultation ……

47. Calibration of models • This afternoon • Documentation

48. Extreme events • Your expert opinion, consultation …… • Large knowledge based on risk management of natural disasters • Empirical evidence is essential (external shock, impacts, vulnerability)

49. Uncertainties • Your expert opinion, consultation …… • Climate change scenarios • Climate variability • Stakeholder adaptation • Agricultural models • Effects of CO2 on crops • Issues of scale • Socio economic projections

50. Thanks for your attention! Visit MEDROPLAN on the web www.iamz.ciheam.org/medroplan ana.iglesias@upm.es