Climate and Other Changes:Emerging Challenges

1. Climate and Other Changes:Emerging Challenges SESSION 1 Ruth Sarra Guzman Professor, Rizal Technological University and Board Chair, PATLEPAM Manila, Philippines

2. Outline • Introduction • Global warming and Climate Change • Science of Climate Change • Impacts of Climate Change • Coping with Climate Change • Climate Change Links to Sustainable Development • Vulnerable Sectors

3. Which is the face of Climate Change? ?

4. More destructive typhoons andflood Lower yields due to drought ? Melting snowcaps Coral bleaching

5. Science ofClimate Change CLIMATE CHANGE 101

6. Climate and Weather:What is the Difference? Weather refers to the mix of events that happen each day in our atmosphere including temperature, rainfall and humidity. Climateis described in terms of the mean and variability of temperature, precipitation and wind over a period of time, ranging from months to millions of years.

7. Factors that influencethe Earth’s Climate “Theearth’s climate is driven by a continuous flow of energy” A variation in the Sun’s output may externally vary the amount of solar radiation received by the Earth’s atmosphere and surface Changes in the concentrations of atmospheric gases, mountain building, volcanic activity, and changes in surface albedo may cause and internal variation in the Earth’s climate

8. What is Climate Change? “ A statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or change in precipitation, temperature and wind, persisting typically decades or longer” - Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

9. What is Climate Change? • “Change in the climate attributed directly or indirectly to human activities , in addition to natural climate variability observed, over a comparable time periods”- United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

10. Factors responsible for Climate Change “Theearth’s climate is driven by a continuous flow of energy” • Variations in the Earth's orbital characteristics. • Volcanic eruptions • Variations in solar output • Variations in Atmospheric composition

11. Greenhouse gases (GHGs) • Carbon Dioxide, Methane, Nitrous Oxide, Ozone, Halocarbons, Water vapor and other industrial gases • Exists in the Earth’s atmosphere • Natural temperature control system • Allows solar radiation (sunlight) to pass through and traps infrared radiation (heat) thus warming the atmosphere

12. G R E E N H O U S E G A S E S The Greenhouse Effect

13. Atmospheric levels of GHGs have nearly doubled in nearly 150 years, from 280 ppm CO2e to 430 ppm - Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2007

14. Rise in GHGs related to Human Activities • Carbon dioxide: Burning of fossil fuels and deforestation • Methane and nitrous oxide: Agricultural activities, land use and wetland changes, pipeline losses, and covered vented landfill emission • Ozone: Automobile exhaust fumes • Long-lived industrial gases: CFCs, HFCs and PFCs

15. Global Projections CLIMATE CHANGE 101

16. Global Predictions Global surface warming of 1 - 4oC is expected in 100 years G

17. Global Predictions Sea level rise (m) to rise by 9 to 88 cm by 2110 during the 21st century relative to 1980 to 1999 under SRES scenarios A1B, A2 and B1.

18. Global Predictions Global precipitation is expected to increase Frequency and intensity of extreme weathers are likely to change

19. Evidences of Climate Change CLIMATE CHANGE 101

20. Evidences of Climate Change • since the late 19th century, global average temperature increased by 0.6 + 0.2 • Mean sea level has risen by 10 – 20 cm and increase of ocean water temperature. • Snow cover declined by 10% since the late 1960s Source: Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2007

21. Evidences of Climate Change G

22. Evidences of Climate Change • Increased frequency of extreme weather events

23. Impact ofClimate Change CLIMATE CHANGE 101

24. Water resources Impact of Climate Change Agriculture and food security Forest Coastal areas Species and natural areas > Temperature increase > Sea level rise > More rain Human health

25. Impact on Flora and Fauna • Predictability of season • Bird and fish migration • Change in plant and animal species diversity

26. Impact on Human Systems • Water system • Poor quality • Insufficient water supply and unpredictable timing • Health • Changes in infectious disease vectors • Increase heat related mortality • Agriculture and Forestry • Change in planting pattern • Occurrence of pests and diseases

27. Impact on Natural Systems • Enlargement of glacial lakes • Thinner sea ice • Short freezing season of lake and river ice

28. Impact of Climate Change Additional people with Increased water stress (50C) 20 to 30% species at inc. high risk of extinction (2-30C) Decrease (low latitudes) (1-20C) Increase (mid & high latitudes) (1-20C)(impact is beneficial) 30% loss of coastal wetlands(3-40C) Increased mortality due to heatwaves, floods and drought (10C) Reconfiguration of coastlines and inundation of low-lying areas (50C)

29. Impact of Climate Change in Asia

30. Future climate change is likely to affect agriculture, risk of hunger and water resource scarcity with enhanced climatevariability Decrease in Freshwater availability in Central, South, East and South-East Asia, About 2.5 to 10% decrease in crop yield (2020s) and 5 to 30% (2050s)

31. Future climate change is likely to affect agriculture, risk of hunger and water resource scarcity with enhanced climatevariability About 49 M people could go hungry in the next 20 to 30 years Loss of lives and of coastal ecosystems very likely due to sea-level rise and flooding Sea-water intrusion and declining river runoff is likely to increase the habitat of brackish water fisheries

32. Marine and coastal ecosystems in Asia are likely to be affected by sea-level rise and temperature increases Coastal inundation is likely to seriously affect the aquaculture and infrastructure Stability of wetlands, mangroves and coral reefs likely to be increasingly threatened Between 24%and 30% of the coral reefs likely to be lost during the next 10 years to 30 years

33. Future climate change is likely to continue to adversely affect human health in Asia • Disease primarily associated with climate change are expected in South and South-East Asia • Increases in coastal water temperature would exacerbate the abundance and/or toxicity of cholera in south Asia

34. Climate Change andother development issues CLIMATE CHANGE 101

35. Climate Change and its linkages with Sustainable Development

36. SD and Climate Change • Alternative development pathways • Sectoral environment/ economic policies • Institutional/managerial changes • Innovation/ technological change Sustainable development policies Climate change Climate change policies • Avoided climate change damage • Ancillary benefits/costs • Spillovers/trade effects • Innovation/technological change Sustainable development Two-way linkages between climate change and sustainable development. Source: Swart et.al (2003)

37. Efforts to cope with the impacts of climate change and attempts to promote sustainable development share common goals and determinants • Access to resources • Equity in the distribution of resources (i.e. human and social capital) • Access to risk-sharing mechanisms • Abilities of decision-support mechanisms to cope with uncertainty

38. Nonetheless, some development activities exacerbate climate-related vulnerabilities High rise building in urban areas Processing plants Road development Land use change/Mining in natural forests (Irresponsible mining)

39. Climate change will result in net costs into the future; these costs will grow over time By 2080, it is likely that : • 1.1 to 3.2 billion people will be experiencing water scarcity • 200 to 600 million will be hungry • 2 to 7 million more per year affected by coastal flooding

40. Climate change will impede nations’ abilities to achieve sustainable development pathways as measured, for example, by long-term progress towards the MillenniumDevelopment Goals

41. Damage estimates as % of global GDP

42. Climate Change and its linkages with Disaster Risk Management

43. DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT CLIMATE CHANGE Increase in Temp. Sea Level Rise Extreme Weather Events Geophysical Hazards Climate/Weather Related Hazards Risk Reduction Measures Adaptation Measures Mitigation Measures CLIMATE CHANGE – DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT CONVERGENCE

44. Imperatives to address theClimate Change Challenge CLIMATE CHANGE 101

45. “Laid the foundations of the contemporary global environmental policy “ The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) • Adopted on 9 May 1992 in New York and signed by more than 150 countries and the European Community. • “stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.” • It contains commitments for all Parties to return greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2000.

46. “ While the Convention encouraged industrialized countries to stabilize GHG emissions, the Protocol commits them to do so”. • Adopted by consensus at COP-3 in December 1997 • Contains legally binding emissions targets for industrialized (Annex I) countries • Annex 1 countries commit themselves to reducing their collective emissions of six key greenhouse gases by at least 5%. • must be achieved by the period 2008-2012. • “Demonstrable progress” must be made by 2005.

47. Division of Parties by Annex Annex I Annex II Australia / Austria / Belgium / Canada / Denmark / EC / Finland / France / Germany / Greece /Iceland / Ireland / Italy / Japan / Luxembourg / Netherlands / New Zealand / Norway / Portugal / Spain / Sweden / Switzerland / Turkey / United Kingdom / USA Belarus / Bulgaria / Croatia / Czech Republic / Estonia / Hungary / Latvia / Liechtenstein / Lithuania / Monaco / Poland / Romania / Russian Federation / Slovakia / Slovenia / Ukraine Non-Annex I Countries = All the Rest of Ratifying Countries

48. Article 12: Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) • Assist Parties not included in Annex I in achieving sustainable development • Assist Parties included in Annex I in achieving compliance with their quantified emission limitation and reduction commitments under Article 3 • Assistance Mechanism is through funding of CDM Projects in Developing Countries

49. Vulnerability to Climate Change CLIMATE CHANGE 101

50. Vulnerability: Agriculture Sector Current climate Agricultural production is highly vulnerable to increasing temperature, particularly, night time temperatures, changes in rainfall events/patterns, particularly those due to extreme weather/climate events, and high winds during tropical cyclone occurrences. Future climate Food security in the Philippines hinges in the agricultural production of the country, principally on sufficiency of rice production.