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Descriptive: Terror Patterns G.I.S. depiction of Terror Incidence Identification of Terror Hot Spots and IntensityAnalytic: Modeling Impact of Terror Effect of Terror on House Prices and Rents Spatial Spillover Effects. Objectives. Theory. Terror Generates (1) Risk (2) Fear. [Becker and Ru
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1. Daniel Felsenstein
Shlomie Hazam
Funded by the German-Israel Fund (GIF)
2. Descriptive: Terror Patterns
G.I.S. depiction of Terror Incidence
Identification of Terror Hot Spots and Intensity
Analytic: Modeling Impact of Terror
Effect of Terror on House Prices and Rents
Spatial Spillover Effects
Objectives
3. Theory Terror Generates (1) Risk (2) Fear. [Becker and Rubinstein 2003].
Risk(ß) = probabilities very small - BUT
small probabilities events can have great impact. (SARS mad – cow disease) DUE TO:
Fear(?) = subjective, different threshold, accommodation levels.
Y1t = a+ß+?+µ1t
Y2t = a+ß+µ2t
t=1….T
5. Model
6. Model Estimation (levels) Pi1 = a1+ß1X1+µi1 | [µi1 = Vi + ei1]
(levels) Pi2 = a2+ß2X2+µi2 | [µi2 = Vi + ei2]
(differences) ?P = a2 - a1 + ß2X2 - ß1X1+ ? µ
7.
Terror Incident Data – Police Diaries
House Prices and Rents – Levi Yitzhak Guide
Terror Monetary Damage Data – Property Tax Bureau
G.I.S. Data Assignment
Data
9. Total Terror Casualties by Years and Type of Attack
10.
Data Standardization (Size and Money Values)
Price Assignment to G.I.S. street/Buildings cover.
Spatial Geographic Weighted Means
Delta– House Prices + Rentals 1999-2004
G.I.S. Method
16.
Descriptive Patterns of Terror
Spatial Distribution of Changes in House + Rental Prices
Factors Affecting House + Rental Prices
Findings
22.
where is the value of i point,
is the weight for point i and j for distance d
24.
Surface Interpolating
Kriging Interpolation Method
Statistic areas Distributions
Spatial Descriptive of Changes in House Prices
32. South West View
42. Conclusions Terror intensity – increases over time
Terror patterns – increasingly random
House + rental prices – largest declines in peripheral neighborhoods and adjacent to seam line
43. Differences between purchasing + rental behavior.
Terror is significant in rental decisions, less so in purchasing.
Explanation: if fear is main component of terror ( and not risk), more likely to be expressed in short term behavior (rental) than in long term (purchasing).