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How do we know what’s Sustainable? Have rating tools worked and what’s the future. Thriving Neighbourhoods Conference, Melbourne Tuesday, 29th October 2013. Context: World Resource Consumption. Consensus on Climate Change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Global warming
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How do we know what’s Sustainable?Have rating tools worked and what’s the future Thriving Neighbourhoods Conference, MelbourneTuesday, 29th October 2013
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) • Global warming • Sea level rises • Extreme weather (Hurricane Sandy clean up $60bn) • Earlier scientific assessments may have been too conservative • Other references • World Bank Group • International Energy Agency
United Nations Climate Conference Doha, December 2012 • 10,000 participants / 190 countries • Climate issue is rising on the international agenda • Unlikely that world would be able to keep global temperatures from rising more than two degrees • Concept of ‘loss and damage’ from climate change (small island nations) • Extension of the Kyoto Protocol – KP2 / 5-8 years • Emission reduction pledges both in terms of scale and participants focussed on the US, China, Brazil, India, South Africa and some Middle Eastern nations.
United States of America • Obama Administration 2013 – 2016 • More aggressive approach to climate change • Obama made reference to action on global warming in his second inaugural address: • “We, the people, still believe that our obligations as Americans are not just to ourselves, but to all posterity. We will respond to the threat of climate change, knowing that the failure to do so would betray our children and future generations. Some may still deny the overwhelming judgment of science, but none can avoid the devastating impact of raging fires and crippling drought more powerful storms.”
Future Direction & International Commitments • UNFCCC Commitments • 86 countries have pledged emissions reduction targets • Together they account for: • over 80% of global GHGs & • 90% of the global economy KP2 UNCC in Doha -8% by 2012 -20% by 2020 -80% by 2050
McKinsey & Co – Marginal Abatement Curve • The most cost effective climate change mitigation opportunities are in buildings
Mitigating Climate Change Within the Building Sector… Existing commercial buildings have the most cost effective opportunities.
Metrics used for the Measurement of Sustainability • Indicators • Benchmarks • A point of reference used for assessing trends and measuring progress • Audits • Indexes and Accounting
Sustainability Drivers • NCC / BCA Section J (2010) • NABERS (1999) • Commercial Building Disclosure (2010) • Green Star (2003)` • NatHERS / BASIX (2007) • PCA Office Quality Grading: Premium = 5GS & 5NABERS Energy Grade A = 4GS & 4.5 NABERS Energy • NGERs Act (2007) corporate CO2 reporting • Carbon Price (2012) A$ 23 per tonne for top 500 polluters • Energy Efficiency Opportunities Act(2006) • Energy Savings Certificates ESCs / “Eski’s” (2009) • Environmental upgrade agreements EUAs (2012) • Rising energy costs: 15-25% in next 5 years.
GBCA at a glance 55+ Team 4 Locations around Australia • 720+ Members 200+ Committee members 11 Green Star tools • 1000+Green Starprojects150+ Media mentions Monthly • 35,000 Visitors to website monthly 200+ Education courses 40,000 Trained in GreenBuilding • 1750+ • Green Star APs & Associates • X • X
Sustainability Drivers • Cost savings • Energy costs – rising electricity prices • Water bills • Waste disposal costs • Tax relief & grants • Value creation • Improving property values & rental attractiveness • NABERS targets (e.g. all government offices requiring NABERS 4.5 Star) • New Sustainability business models • Reputation • Competitive Advantage • Prestige value • Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) • Brand • Employee Satisfaction • Comfort • Staff motivation • Risk Management – Climate Change adaption • Hotter peak and average temperatures • Increased energy demand & costs for cooling • Thermal comfort issues • Increased risk of fire • Risk of coastal inundation • Flood risk • Increased frequency and severity of storm events • Regulatory Compliance • BEECs / NABERS • NGERs CO2 reporting
Drivers for Energy Efficiency in the Built Environment & other sectors • Rising electricity costs • Tenant preferences • Consumer demand • Green Star & NABERS value add • Regulatory compliance • Shareholder risk • Future proofing
Regulatory Drivers • Climate Change targets: 5% by 2020 (v2000); 80% by 2050 • NCC / BCA Section J: 2003 resi; 2010 tightened for all new build and renovations. Green Star: voluntary since 2003 NABERS: voluntary since 1999, mandatory from 2011 • NatHERS: consistent method of calculation for Residential • BASIX: in NSW since 2004, from 2007 mandatory for all resi developments in NSW worth $50,000 or more. • CBD / BEECs: Commercial Building Disclosure (CBD) Program 2010 / Building Energy Efficiency Certificate (BEEC) scheme (offices over 2,000m2). • NGERs Act 2007: Mandatory CO2 reporting for corporations • EEO (Energy Efficiency Opportunities Act) 2006: Energy Assessment requirements for large Corporations • Carbon Tax (2012): A$ 23 per tonne (top 500 polluters) PCA Office Quality Grading: Premium = 5 Green Star & NABERS 5; Grade A = 4 Green Stars & NABERS 4.5. • Environmental upgrade agreements (EUA): local council, private sector finance, tenants make repayments from savings.
Funding Options • Low Carbon Australia EnergyEfficiency Program • Loans • Finance through energy utility (“on-bill finance”) • Energy audits, identify projects, implementation, monitoring and verification • Energy saving guarantee – 80% of predicted savings guaranteed • Monthly energy savings are greater than monthly repayments through energy bill • EUAs: NAB, Eureka funds management, LCA – SPV for EUA finance
Environmental Upgrade Agreements • Buildings represent the most cost effective climate change mitigation opportunity (Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, 2006; IPCC AR4 WG III, 2007) • Cost effective technology is currently available to improve building energy efficiency. • Barriers to uptake include: • Lack of available capital to invest in energy efficiency measures • Up-front costs are borne by the landlord, while the benefits accrue to the tenant over time • Environmental Upgrade Agreements (EUAs) are a new way to: • unlock upfront capital to invest in energy efficiency measures for existing buildings • attach the cost of the upgrades to the property with payback through Council bills, spread the costs of the upgrades over time, and get the tenant to contribute • Sustainable Melbourne Fund
Living Building Challenge • World’s most stringent green building certification program. • Documentation based on 12 months actual performance • “Embrace the psychology of the end game”