The Lone Wolf

1. The Lone Wolf Anyone who thinks they stand apart from society and defies all which govern its existence has less in common with the lone wolf patriot standing up to dystopic forces of oppression - a myth - and more in common with the disease known as cancer - a harsh reality. Steven Weber

2. How do we know?

3. They don’t come with warning labels!

4. Identification Today the most unpredictable and challenging form of terrorism is one perpetrated by one or two individuals, usually referred to as lone actors or lone wolf terrorists. • A lone-wolf terrorist is one that plans and carries out an attack without assistance or organizational support. • These acts are usually hard to detect and hard to defend against, but not impossible. • Difficult to capture by traditional intelligence techniques. • Tend to do a lot of “Howling.” (broadcast intent) • Forums • Blogs • Other Social Media So all we need are effective methods of filtering through all of this social media on the Internet. • The Internet is that it is huge! • Impossible for analysts to manually search for information and to analyze it • Then all we need to do is automated, right? • This requires vast amounts of computer resources. • The so called hidden or Deep Web. To complicate matters you have the Lone Wolf with no published agenda or ideology, such as Adam Lanza, and others with no published agenda but warnings were discovered after the fact, James Eagan Holmes.

5. Traits Clark McCauley, a Bryn Mawr College psychology professor, has stated that they all share common traits. • Nearly all of them have personal and/or political grievances • the perception that harm has been done to them or to society • One of the most notorious examples is Kaczinski (Unabomber) • Believed that technology was destroying both the environment and humanity. The more recent example is the Boston marathon bomber • Had great ambitions of becoming a boxing pro • Felt he was unjustly blocked by new rules • only citizens could compete in the Golden Gloves championships Most Lone Wolves act out due to a mixture of ideology and personal grievances. Unlike Islamist terrorists most Lone Wolf terrorist tend to come up with their own ideologies.

6. Indicators The authors K. Cohen, F. Johansson, L. Kaati, and Mork J Clausen have written a paper “Detecting Linguistic Markers for Radical Violence in Social Media,” and have identified a set of indicators to help identify a person possibly having the intent to commit an act of terror and becoming a lone wolf terrorist. The list of indicators is not comprehensive and is used to illustrate how it is possible to automatically detect evidence using text analysis techniques. The indicators that we use are: • A person is active on a radical web page • radical expressions in postings • leakage (they often announce their views and intentions in advance) • identification (behavior indicating a desire to be a pseudo-commando) • fixation (preoccupation with a person or a cause) Since just one indicator is insufficient for classifying a potential lone wolf terrorist with certainty, there is a need to combine the information of several indicators in order to make an adequate assessment.

7. Analysis The majority of the major terrorist attacks in the United States have all been executed by one or two individuals who were sympathetic to a larger cause. • the Oklahoma City bomber Timothy McVeigh • the Washington area sniper John Allen Muhammad Despite the sudden apparent increase in Lone Wolf attacks a study done by Ramón Spaaij has only found 88 separate instances across 15 countries in the last 30 years. • Lone Wolf terrorism accounted for 1.28% of all terrorist incidents from 1968 too 2007 • Of the 15 countries examined the US was the only country with an increase • primarily due to non-Islamist motivated right-wing extremists and antiabortionists • The Media makes it look like it’s a more serious threat of occurring than it actually is. • Even though, the problem is the amount of damage and loss of life is increased due to technology • A multitude of Internet sites explain in great detail how to build very effective high explosive devices

8. Mitigation Vigilance

9. Conclusion One of the major problems when it comes to detecting possible lone wolf terrorists is that there is no consistent or typical profile of a lone wolf. • hard to capture using traditional intelligence methods • no physical groups to infiltrate or wiretap However, there are many actions and activities (that are not necessarily illegal) taken by an individual that can be treated as weak signals and that combined may indicate an interest in terrorism acts. Recognizing and analyzing digital traces from online activities of possible lone wolf terrorists is one key to the difficult problem of detecting lone wolf terrorists before they strike. It is also difficult when terrorist groups are sending out messages to the Muslim youth to awake the American people from their long slumber” and “serve them drinks in the same cup we [Muslims] drink from, the cup of wars and battles, explosions and assassinations, deaths and injuries.”

10. Resources (Books) • In Pursuit of the Lone Wolf Terrorist • http://www.amazon.com/Pursuit-Lone-Wolf-Terrorist-Investigative/dp/1626189889 • Lone Wolf • http://www.rakuten.com/prod/lone-wolf/202453531.html?listingId=267701852&s_kwcid= • Lone Wolf Terrorism • http://www.amazon.com/Lone-Wolf-Terrorism-Understanding-Growing/dp/161614646X • Lone Wolf Terror and the Rise of Leaderless Resistance • http://www.amazon.com/Lone-Wolf-Terror-Leaderless-Resistance/dp/0826518559/ref=pd_bxgy_b_img_z • New Understanding of Terrorism - 10 edition • http://www.textbooks.com/BooksDescription.php?BKN=1217350&SBC=GHJ&kpid=9781441983749U&network=GoogleShopping&tracking_id=9781441983749U&utm_medium=cpc&utm_term=9781441983749U&utm_source=googleshopping&kenshu=77d0f3f8-52da-53c8-1373-00002c1de8d8&kenshu=77d0f3f8-52da-53c8-1373-00002c1de8d8&mcid=XKS-7558-4-375-GoogleShopping-PRIDREPLACE-291&gclid=CK3M6Mbd-7sCFY1FMgodbQcAQA • Understanding Lone Wolf Terrorism • http://www.amazon.com/Understanding-Lone-Wolf-Terrorism-SpringerBriefs/dp/9400729804

11. Resources (Articles) • Harvesting and analysis of weak signals for detecting lone wolf terrorists • http://www.security-informatics.com/content/2/1/11 • Lone Wolves in Cyberspace • http://ojs.st-andrews.ac.uk/index.php/jtr/article/view/405/431 • What Motivates the Lone Wolf Terrorist? • http://www.voanews.com/articleprintview/1678803.html?displayOptions=3 • Joseph Stack and the Lone Wolf Mentality • http://archive.adl.org/learn/adl_and_law/joseph_stack_and_the_lone_wolf_mentality.html • Al-Qaeda Releases Updated English Version Of Film Encouraging Lone-Wolf Terror Attacks In The West • http://www.rightsidenews.com/2013122633651/world/terrorism/al-qaeda-releases-updated-english-version-of-film-encouraging-lone-wolf-terror-attacks-in-the-west.html • Napolitano: Lone wolf terror threat growing • http://www.cbsnews.com/news/napolitano-lone-wolf-terror-threat-growing/ • Lone wolf is new focus post-Boston bombings • http://thehill.com/blogs/defcon-hill/policy-and-strategy/295723-lone-wolf-is-new-focus-post-boston • CNN Exclusive: Holder fears 'lone wolf' terrorist attack, doesn't want TSA armed • http://www.cnn.com/2013/11/05/politics/holder-terror-snowden-interview/ • The Danger of the Lone-Wolf Terrorist • http://nation.time.com/2013/02/27/the-danger-of-the-lone-wolf-terrrorist/ • Single Actor Terrorism: Scope, Characteristics and Explanations • http://www.terrorismanalysts.com/pt/index.php/pot/article/view/231/html

12. Resources (Websites) • START - http://www.start.umd.edu/start/ • Anti-Defamation League - http://www.adl.org/ • MEMRI - http://www.memrijttm.org/ • Jihad - http://jihadology.net/ • Inspire Magazine – http://jihadology.net/category/inspire-magazine/ • Perspectives on Terrorism - http://www.terrorismanalysts.com