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Q20: How is ozone expected to change in the coming decades?

Q20: How is ozone expected to change in the coming decades?. Blaž Gasparini. Why we can we trust the main finding with a certain degree of confidence?. Recovery of ozone layer from the effects of ozone-depleting substances (ODS) near the middle of the 21 st century.

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Q20: How is ozone expected to change in the coming decades?

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  1. Q20: How is ozone expected to change in the coming decades? Blaž Gasparini

  2. Why we can we trust the main finding with a certain degree of confidence? Recovery of ozone layer from the effects of ozone-depleting substances (ODS) near the middle of the 21st century. • In future: minor role of ODS and bigger influence of climate • Model projections: strengthening of Brewer-Dobson circulation -> bringing more ozone to the polar regions -> less in tropics ESC = Equivalent Strat. Clorine Ozone recovers before ESC – stratospheric cooling and strengthened circulation effect

  3. Uncertainties mostly connected to climate change induced circulation differences • My “aha!”: Why tropics less sensitive to changes in ODS than polar regions? Polar air: ESC values bigger => transport (up to several years) => more time for conversion of ODS to reactive halogen gasses

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