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Considering Causes in Forecasting for Ethical Decision-Making

Considering Causes in Forecasting for Ethical Decision-Making. Cheryl Beeler University of Oklahoma 2009 Research Conference on Research Integrity Niagara Falls, NY May 17, 2009. Ethical Decision-Making. Complex, ill-defined problems Require analysis and integration of information

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Considering Causes in Forecasting for Ethical Decision-Making

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  1. Considering Causes in Forecasting for Ethical Decision-Making Cheryl Beeler University of Oklahoma 2009 Research Conference on Research Integrity Niagara Falls, NY May 17, 2009

  2. Ethical Decision-Making • Complex, ill-defined problems • Require analysis and integration of information • Mumford et al. (2008) model of 5 key cognitive processes • Framing • Emotional Regulation • Forecasting • Self-Reflection • Sensemaking

  3. Purpose of Study Examine the role of forecasting in ethical decision-making Examine how key contextual variables influence the process

  4. Forecasting • Using observations about the current situation to predict outcomes (Pant & Starbuck, 1990) • Critical given significant consequences for self and others (Mumford, 2002) • Identification and manipulation of causes particularly important (Marcy & Mumford, 2006) • Number of causes identified • Critical causes identified

  5. Situational Variables • Decision-making occurs in context • Time Pressure • Present • Not present • Analytical Mindset • Deliberative • Implementation

  6. Research Questions • Is effective forecasting associated with more ethical decisions? • What role does the identification of causes of the problem play in forecasting and ethical decision-making? • Do two common situational variables influence this this complex cognitive process? • Time pressure • Analytic Mindset (implementation vs. deliberative)

  7. Procedure • Sample • 96 undergraduate psychology students • Manipulation of situational variables • Task completed under time pressure or not • Implementation or deliberative mindset induced • Covariate Measures • Intelligence • Planning • Divergent Thinking

  8. Procedure • Ethical Problems • Complex, realistic ethical problems • Mapped to taxonomy of research ethics problems • Identify Causes • List and describe the causes of the problem • Forecast Outcomes • Forecast the likely outcomes of this scenario (What do you think will happen?) • Make Decision • Adapted from validated ethical decision-making measure (Mumford et al., 2006) • Eight potential responses to problem situation • Choose 2 responses

  9. Results • Forecast Quality Predicts Ethicality Note: *p < .05; **p < .01

  10. Results • Criticality of Causes Predicts Forecast Quality Note: *p < .05; **p < .01

  11. Results • Criticality of Causes Predicts Ethicality Note: *p < .05; **p < .01

  12. Conclusions • Better quality forecasting is associated with better ethical decision-making • Identification of critical causes is associated with better quality forecasting and better ethical decision-making • Time pressure and mindset are not related to forecasting or ethical decision-making

  13. Implications • Forecasting is critical for ethical decision-making • Identification of critical causes is of key importance • Time pressure may not hinder ethical decision-making • Training Implications • Emphasize forecast outcomes • Include instruction on identifying critical causes

  14. Faculty Dr. Michael Mumford Dr. Lynn Devenport Graduate Students Alison Antes Jared Caughron Laura Martin Dr. Shane Connelly Dr. Ryan Brown Mike Tamborski Chase Thiel Xiaoqian Wang Acknowledgments Thank you to the National Institutes of Health and Office of Research Integrity for sponsoring this research.

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