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Enter Climate Change

Enter Climate Change. Climate Change Cooperation. Source: NASA. The Problem Human Induced Increase in GHG. The Increase in CO 2 is Not Uncertain. Effect on Global Mean Temperature. The Science. Svante Arrhenius (1896) – doubling of CO2 -> increase by 5C

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Enter Climate Change

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  1. Enter Climate Change Climate Change Cooperation Source: NASA

  2. The ProblemHuman Induced Increase in GHG

  3. The Increase in CO2 is Not Uncertain

  4. Effect on Global Mean Temperature

  5. The Science • Svante Arrhenius (1896) – doubling of CO2 -> increase by 5C • Transnational scientific collaboration: 1970s-1980s • International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): 1988 by WMO and UNEP

  6. IPCC • Doubling of CO2 • 1.4-5C t increase

  7. Sources of Scientific Uncertainty • Sulfate aerosol – cooling effect • Ocean – absorption capacity • Clouds – cooling or warming effect • Non-linear effect – shutdown of the circulation of the North Atlantic (thermohaline circulations)?

  8. The Actors

  9. The Breakthrough • UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (Rio 1992) • 189 countries joined • Common but differentiated responsibility • Stabilization at 1990 emission levels desirable • Reporting requirement • GEF: Main funding mechanism

  10. COP at Kyoto • Lead actors: EU reductions of CO2, NOx, methane from 1990 levels • Transition economies: Emissions considerably (~30%) below 1990 levels ->hot air. • US Position: stabilization of all gases at 1990 levels and emissions trading to offset costs, differential targets, participation of developing countries • Canada, Japan, Australia, New Zeeland • Developing countries: industrialized countries should take the lead

  11. The Kyoto Protocol • Emission reduction targets for industrialized countries (Annex I countries) -total emissions -5.2% of 1992 by 2008-2012 -national ceilings -Six gases included (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, HFCs, PFCs and sulfur hexafluoride). Global Warming Potentials used to translate to C02 equivalent. • No targets for developing countries • Emissions Trading, Joint Implementation, Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)

  12. COP Bonn and Marrakech • Implementation of flexible mechanisms • Forest sinks – countries can receive credits for carbon sinks (forests) • “Enforcement” mechanisms

  13. Flexible Mechanisms • Emissions trading • Countries with binding emissions trade • Joint Implementations • Country with binding target receives emission credits for emission abatement projects in another country with a binding target • Clean Development Mechanism • Countries with targets receive credits for abatement projects in developing countries – 2% tax for adaptation

  14. Country % of 1990 Annex I E missions US 36 .1 EU 24 .2 Russia 17 .4 Japan n 8.5 Canada 3.3 Poland 3 Other EU 3.4 Acce cession Entry into Force • 55 ratifications • 55% of Annex I emissions http://unfccc.int/resource/kpthermo.html

  15. Two Views on Kyoto Is the KP fatally flawed or is it a meaningful step in the right direction?

  16. Kyoto Protocol Controversies • Hot air • Non-participation • Leakage • Measuring additionally in JI and CDM • Enforcement • “paper” trades • Non-compliance • Exit

  17. Current Developments • Russia ratified 2005 • EU carbon emissions trading projected started January/February 2005 • National allocation plans (cover about 5,000 out of estimated 12,000 large emitters) • Approval of national emission plans • Trade in emission allowances • COP 11, Montreal, November-December 2005 • COP 12, Nairobi, November 2006.

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