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Discussion on Decision Support

Discussion on Decision Support. OGC/ Earthcube Meeting at ESRI in Redlands, CA Jan 18 2012 Philip Murphy, University of Redlands. A decision opportunity. Multi Criteria Decision Making. Multi Criteria Decision Making. Multi Criteria Decision Making. Results.

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Discussion on Decision Support

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  1. Discussion on Decision Support OGC/Earthcube Meeting at ESRI in Redlands, CA Jan 18 2012 Philip Murphy, University of Redlands

  2. A decision opportunity

  3. Multi Criteria Decision Making

  4. Multi Criteria Decision Making

  5. Multi Criteria Decision Making • Results

  6. Multi Criteria Decision Analysis • Contributions

  7. Multi Criteria Decision Analysis • Contributions/Polar

  8. Multi Criteria Decision Analysis • Uncertainty

  9. Multi Criteria Decision Making

  10. Multi Criteria Decision Making

  11. Multi Criteria Decision Making

  12. Multi Criteria Decision Analysis

  13. What is in it?

  14. That is “Governance”!? • People and roles • Decision Process & Methods • Judgment elicitation • Aggregation algorithms • Consensus building • Decision Communication Open to another name!

  15. Planning Support in Questions How should we evaluate the landscape? How are/must decisions be made? How should we evaluate the proposed actions? How does the landscape work? Complete Decision Support for Planning How might you change the landscape? How might the actions impact the landscape?

  16. So what is so wicked? • Knowledge is always x-disciplinary • Institutions not so much… • Systems are complex with feedback • People even more so • Uncertainty is everywhere • But rarely makes it into decision making • Time is fleeting • Science is deliberative • People are different • Not easy to communicate credibility of decision making • Actions change the state of the system • But so do emergent rends • And all feedback loops aren’t known

  17. Example of Earth Science models -- Process model used in Desert Tortoise Recovery SDS The FWS DTRO created this process model by creating Threat “tiles” • Which Recovery Actions can be introduced to abate the threat A threat description based on the Threat design pattern 11.53 13.97 40.45 0 9.41 16.53 8.02 • The threats caused by each threat 13.3 13.1 9.0 0 • The stresses caused by each threat 8 15 3 11 5 0 0 • Which factors each stress causes to overall population change

  18. Communicating the models

  19. 4.0 Model development for solar energy projects Offsets in Risk to DT Population Increased Risk with Addition of Solar Project Decreased Risk after Completion of Proposed Recovery Actions Δ risk= +4,725 Δ risk = -2,015

  20. WEMO TCA: Ord Rodman - RAs 4.0 Model development for solar energy projects

  21. Spatial variance across all TCAs 4.0 Model development for solar energy projects

  22. 4.0 Model development for solar energy projects Uncertainty in solar offsets For species recovery, we need to doenough of the right things in the right places to mitigate the estimated impacts of that solar plant. Regulators will decide an offset balance, these numbers help inform their decisions, so knowing the uncertainty in these numbers is critical.

  23. 4.0 Model development for solar energy projects Spatial Sensitivity Analysis Module Varies all top level weights • Threat > Stress: 108 • Stress > Population Effects: 44 • Population Effects > Population Change: 4 • Recovery Action Effectiveness: 165 Doesn’t yet • Threat > Threat: 166 • Spatial parameter adjustments (e.g. buffer distances)

  24. Decision Maker Support

  25. Collaboration Support

  26. Workflow composition guided by SDS ontology and Earth science ontologies Grand Changes Planning workflow Assessment models Process models Decision model … … Habitat suitability models Hydrological models Geoprocessing, and other computational workflows Implementation platform Cyberinfrastructure

  27. Standards we need, and what are we ready for? • Governance ………… • Decision Deck Consortium >> XMCDA • http://www.decision-deck.org • Uncertainty …. • Description (UncertML?) • Propagation • Decision Support Interfaces … • Alternatives Design ………………………………… • Interoperability .. (see all other talks) • Workflows, process models, data, semantics, ..

  28. Start with “Governance”? • Work with Luc Boerboom/Decision Deck on expanding xMCDA • Add uncertainty via UncertML • Test in CriteriumDecisionPlus and more tools • Work in OGC Decision Support WG? • Aim at a White Paper? • Work with EqbInterop Group • Use Cases • Track Eqb semantics, workflows groups

  29. Thanks! • Philip_murphy@spatial.redlands.edu • naicong_li@spatial.redlands.edu

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