International CLIVAR Structure, Activities and Future Directions

1. International CLIVAR Structure, Activities and Future Directions Valery Detemmerman Joint Planning Staff World Climate Research Programme Geneva, Switzerland

2. WCRP Overview Established 1980 Sponsors: WMO (1980+), ICSU (1980+) and IOC (1992+) • Objectives • To determine the predictability of climate • To determine the effect of human activities on climate

3. GEWEX 1988  TOGA 1983-1985-1994 WOCE 1983-1990-2002 SPARC 1992 CLIVAR 1995  ACSYS/CliC 1994–2003/2000  WCRP Projects WGNE WGCM WGSF

4. Intl CLIVAR Objectives • Understand the physical processes responsible for climate variability and predictability on seasonal, interannual, decadal, and centennial time-scales … • Extend the range and accuracy of seasonal to interannual climate prediction … • Extend the record of climate variability … • Understand, predict and detect the anthropogenic modification of the natural climate signal. • US CLIVAR objectives provide effective match to these

5. CLIVAR - Principal Research Areas

6. CLIVAR - global view

7. Basin Panels – Atmos&Oc • Atlantic • Pacific • Southern Ocean • Indian Ocean (with GOOS)

8. Major activities • Atlantic thermohaline circ. variability, Atlantic predictability, Tropical Atlantic Climate Experiment (TACE) • Southern Pacific Workshop (w/GOOS, ARGO..) • Indian Ocean Implementation Plan • S. Oc in the International Polar Year

9. Monsoon Panels • Asia – Australia (AAMP) • Americas (VAMOS) • African Climate Variability (VACS)

10. Major Activities • Monsoon modelling workshop (w/GEWEX..) • North American Monsoon Experiment • S. Am Low Level Jet Experiment • La Plata Basin (w/ GEWEX, GEF) • African Monsoon (AMMA) • African Climate Atlas • East Africa workshop

11. Global Panels - Modelling • Working Group on Coupled Modelling (w/JSC, WGCM) • Working Group on Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (WGSIP) • Working Group on Ocean Model Development

12. Major activities • IPCC input • regional panels analyses of output- feedback • Ensemble techniques • Ocean component of climate models

13. Global Panels- cross-cutting • Global Observations and Synthesis Panel (GSOP) • PAGES/CLIVAR Intersection • Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (w/ WMO Commission on Climatology)

14. Major activities • GSOP – data requirements, policy, reanalysis • PAGES/CLIVAR – workshops • ET CCD & Indices

15. CLIVAR Assessment • Organised by: • CLIVAR streams (GOALS, DecCen, ACC) referenced to the Science & Implementation Plans and ToRs of Panels & WGs • Unifying streams of “Data” & “Modelling • Overall programme structure & the ICPO

16. CLIVAR self-assessment • assessors • Seasonal-Interannual: Ed Sarachik • Decadal-Centennial: Fritz Schott • Anthropogenic Climate Change: Mike Manton • Modelling: David Anderson • “Data”: Neville Smith • Structure: Jurgen Willebrand • Inputs • Panel & Working Group responses to questionnaire • CLIVAR web pages & documents • Reviewer/Panel & WG interactions • CLIVAR Conference • Outcomes • Written & oral reports to CLIVAR SSG-13 • Report on web • Continuing analysis, SSG-14

17. Key outcomes of the CLIVAR Conference and Assessment: Reconfirmed 4 major Foci • ENSO • Monsoons • Decadal climate variability-THC • Anthropogenic climate change • On an annual basis CLIVAR progress will be assessed against four major global themes. Each year a topical workshop will be held for one of the four “total programme” themes.

18. Key outcomes of the CLIVAR Conference and Assessment: Science Priorities • Regional analysis of global model outputs and feedback • Strengthen CLIVAR activity in ACC • Links between process studies & model improvement

19. Key outcomes of the CLIVAR Conference and Assessment: Future priorities • CLIVAR visibility and networking • Overall CLIVAR data and information management • Applications of CLIVAR science

20. US CLIVAR Reorganization • Balanced climate research agenda – understanding, prediction, linkages to users of climate info • Engage more of scientific community

21. US and international CLIVAR • US CLIVAR activities occur within the framework of international CLIVAR • The US is a key player in international CLIVAR • One measure is US membership of the CLIVAR SSG, Panels and Working Groups

22. US Membership of CLIVAR SSG, Panels & Working Groups 2004 * membership under revision

23. Functions of the ICPO • Coordinate & encourage international participation in CLIVAR • Support CLIVAR Panels and Working Groups • Manage CLIVAR information flow (web, Exchanges)

24. Current ICPO Staff - key responsibilities 2005 • Howard Cattle (100%): Director, ICPO, JSC, SSG, ICPO management, links to other programmes, editor Exchanges • Roberta Boscolo (50%): Atlantic,VACS, WGOMD • Carlos Ereño (25%): VAMOS, Latin American contacts • MikeSparrow (30%): Southern Ocean • Nico (100%): Pacific, TIP, GSOP, data issues, links with carbon • programmes • New Staff person (100%): Modelling, ETCCD, CLIVAR-PAGES, Indian Ocean, AAMP • Sandy Grapes (100%): secretariat, technical editor Exchanges

25. US and international CLIVAR • Good fit US to Intl CLIVAR • Much to be gained by intl collaboration • Maintain links via panels, working groups, workshops and via ICPO and Exchanges

26. “….it is recognized that strong linkages to the international CLIVAR ..panels must continue in order to leverage and coordinate significant international investments in climate science.” EOS July 2005