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Catherine Stevens, Project manager and GIS expert, GIM

North Atlantic Ocean climate variability and its impact on heat stress exposure in urban areas: case studies and user requirements. Catherine Stevens, Project manager and GIS expert, GIM. Agenda. UHI and mapping heat impact on health: brief reminder Selection of 3 end users: short description

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Catherine Stevens, Project manager and GIS expert, GIM

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  1. North Atlantic Ocean climate variability and its impact on heat stress exposure in urban areas: case studies and user requirements Catherine Stevens, Project manager and GIS expert, GIM

  2. Agenda • UHI and mapping heat impact on health: brief reminder • Selection of 3 end users: short description • June 2013 - 1st end user: Berlin and Antwerp • September 2013 - Meeting the 3rd end user: Almada • Work in progress and planning

  3. Agenda • UHI and mapping heat impact on health: brief reminder • Selection of 3 end users: short description • June 2013 - 1st end user : Berlin and Antwerp • September 2013 - Meeting the 3rd end user : Almada • Work in progress and planning

  4. UHI and mapping heat impact on health city selection CMIP5 socio-economic observations UrbClim UHI prediction health effects heat stress exposure stratified by population, housing conditions, etc…

  5. UHI and mapping heat impact on health • Heat stress High temperatures and humidity stress the body's ability to cool itself, and heat illness becomes a special concern during hot weather. • Some factors increase the risk of heat stress • Old people • Single • Sick • Being hospitalized • … • Heat stress depends on several factors

  6. UHI and mapping heat impact on health • Climatic parameters • Temperature (e.g. apparent max t°) and humidity • Temperature variability (day max t°, night min t°, interval, duration) • Wind speed and direction… • Urban morphology parameters • City centre vs residential area • Green area and water place • Open space, street canyon • Buildings variables (material, albedo, orientation…)… • Demographic, socio-economic and healthparameters • Age and gender • Marital Status • Economic status and educational level • Health conditions, medication and disease…

  7. UHI and mapping heat impact on health Results of Urban Heat Island model + Exposure indicators (Climatic, Urban morphology, Demographic / Socio-economic, Health) Exposure Maps

  8. UHI and mapping heat impact on health • Indoor thermal condition in urban heat island – development of a predictive tool, Parham A. Mirzaeia, Fariborz Haghighata

  9. UHI and mapping heat impact on health • Map of the statistical district of Melbourne showing the weighted vulnerability index for each postal area, on hot days • Combined demographic, socioeconomic, health, environmental variables  vulnerability index http://www.hindawi.com/journals/ijpr/2012/518687

  10. Agenda • UHI and mapping heat impact on health: brief reminder • Selection of 3 end users: short description • June 2013 - 1st end user : Berlin and Antwerp • September 2013 - Meeting the 3rd end user : Almada • Work in progress and planning

  11. Selection of 3 end users • Selection of number of relevant stakeholders • Interested in benefiting from an analysis of the impacts of climate change on their urban dimension Three European cities • Antwerp (BE) • Berlin (DE) • Almada(PT)

  12. Selection of 3 end users • Antwerp (BE) • Major port • Population density 2,500/km2 • 20% green and blue urban areas • Maritime temperate climate • Berlin (DE) • Metropolis counting 3.5 million inhabitants • Population density 3,700/km2 • 20-29 % green and blue urban areas • Warm-Summer Continental climate • Almada (PT) • Small city densely populated • Nearby Lisbon metropolis • Population density is 2,355 / km2 • Mediterranean climate and close to Atlantic ocean

  13. Agenda • UHI and mapping heat impact on health: brief reminder • Selection of 3 end users: short description • June 2013 - 1st end user : Berlin and Antwerp • September 2013 - Meeting the 3rd end user : Almada • Work in progress and planning

  14. June 2013 - 1st end user : Berlin and Antwerp • Themes and services identified • Scenario linked to urban planning: the effect of UHI today and in the future on urban planning • Scenario using existing urban plans/projects • Impacts of green roofs linked to green roof potential map/plan (2030-2040) • Impacts of change albedo (reflectivity) of buildings (roofs…) • … • Scenario using projected population figures • Densification population and new settlements • Vulnerable population (school and old people) • … • Impact of city expansion on climate change (e.g. projected LULC)

  15. June 2013 - 1st end user : Berlin and Antwerp • Time frame to be used in simulation are • Current situation (2000-2010) • Mid term (2030-2040) • Long term prediction (2100) • Resolution vs extent • Larger extent (full city) with 250 m resolution • Smaller extent (part of city) with 100 m resolution • Seasonal studies • Summer • “Winter”

  16. June 2013 - 1st end user : Berlin and Antwerp

  17. Agenda • UHI and mapping heat impact on health: brief reminder • Selection of 3 end users: short description • June 2013 - 1st end user : Berlin and Antwerp • September 2013 - Meeting the 3rd end user : Almada • Work in progress and planning

  18. September 2013 : Almada end user workshop • Themes and services identified • Identify hotspots in city • Population exposure to heat waves • For ex. Last summer heat wave (2013) • Prediction/projection for 2100 as a help to downscale adaptation • Possible to identify 3 spots in the city for high resolution study to make diagnose  out of the scope of NACLIM

  19. September 2013 : Almada end user workshop • Almada meteorological station visit

  20. Agenda • UHI and mapping heat impact on health: brief reminder • Selection of 3 end users: short description • June 2013 - 1st end user: Berlin and Antwerp • September 2013 - Meeting the 3rd end user: Almada • Work in progress and planning

  21. Work in progress • UHI modelling: UrbClim pre-processing input data • Variables/parameters • Current work : • Planar area Index (PAI): proportion of area covered by buildings per grid cell • Frontal area indexes (FAI): area of buildings projected into the plane normal to the incoming wind direction and is a function of orientation per grid cell • Average building height weighted with the building area and its variance • Sky view factor (SVF) • Outstanding work:% urban land use, land use type, % vegetation …

  22. Work in progress • Berlin end-user case • Available data • 3D building layers • Street network • Study extent = Vito grid • Not full building coverage • Extrapolation of PAI and FAI Evaluation of relationship at 1km resolution between EEA SS and PAI/FAI

  23. Work in progress • PAI and EEA SS

  24. Work in progress • EEA SS and PAI Relationship

  25. Work in progress • FAI and EEA SS

  26. Work in progress • EEA SS and PAI Relationship

  27. Work in progress • PAI Extrapolation on the full coverage

  28. Planning

  29. Questions? Don’t hesitate to ask! GIM nv/sa Researchpark Haasrode 1505 Interleuvenlaan 5 B-3001 Leuven (Heverlee) tel: +32 16 40 30 39 fax: +32 16 40 69 39 e-mail: info@gim.be website: www.gim.be

  30. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union 7th Framework Programme (FP7 2007-2013), under grant agreement n.308299 NACLIM www.naclim.eu

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