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HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa July 2002

HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa July 2002. Trends in the HIV/AIDS Epidemic. HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, 1986-2001. 1986. 1991. 20 – 39%. 10 – 20%. 5 – 10%. 1 – 5%. 0 – 1%. trend data unavailable. 1996. 2001. outside region.

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HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa July 2002

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  1. HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan AfricaJuly 2002

  2. Trends in the HIV/AIDS Epidemic

  3. HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, 1986-2001 1986 1991 20 – 39% 10 – 20% 5 – 10% 1 – 5% 0 – 1% trend data unavailable 1996 2001 outside region

  4. Number of people living with HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa, 1980-2001 30 Millions 25 20 15 10 5 0 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 Source: UNAIDS, 2002

  5. Number of people who died from HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa, 1980-2001 2,500 Thousands 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 Source: UNAIDS, 2002

  6. Percentage of workforce lost to AIDS by 2005 and 2020 in selected African countries 50 2005 2020 40 30 % 20 10 0 Togo Nigeria Ethiopia Botswana Zimbabwe Cameroon South Africa Mozambique Cote d’Ivoire Guinea-Bissau United Rep. of Tanzania Central African Republic Sources: ILO (2000) POPILO population and labour force projection; UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (1998) World Population Prospects: the 1998 Revision

  7. Projected population structure with and without the AIDS epidemic, Botswana, 2020 80 Projected population structure in 2020 75 Males Females 70 65 Deficits due to AIDS 60 55 50 Age in years 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Population (thousands) Source: US Census Bureau, World Population Profile 2000

  8. Increase in mortality among men between 15 and 60, selected African countries, 1986-1997 80 estimated for 6 years before survey 70 estimated for year of survey 60 50 Probability of dying from all causes 40 30 20 10 0 Tanzania 1996 Malawi 1992 Zimbabwe 1994 Uganda 1995 Zambia 1996-97 Source: Timaeus I, AIDS 1998, 12 (suppl): S15-S27

  9. Estimated impact of AIDS on under-5 child mortality rates, selected African countries, 2010 250 Deaths per 1,000 live births 200 WithoutAIDS WithAIDS 150 100 50 0 Botswana Malawi Kenya Tanzania Zambia Zimbabwe Source: US Census Bureau

  10. 65 60 55 50 Life expectancy (years) 45 40 Senegal 35 30 Changes in life expectancy in selected African countries with high and low HIV prevalence: 1950 - 2005 with high HIV prevalence: Zimbabwe South Africa Botswana with low HIV prevalence: Madagascar Mali 1950– 1955 1955- 1960 1960- 1965 1965- 1970 1970- 1975 1975- 1980 1980- 1985 1985- 1990 1990- 1995 2000- 2005 1995- 2000 Source: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2001) World Population Prospects, the 2000 Revision.

  11. Predicted loss in life expectancy due to HIV/AIDS in children born in 2000 Predicted life expectancy Loss in life expectancy due to HIV/AIDS Botswana Zimbabwe South Africa Kenya Zambia Côte d'Ivoire Rwanda Mozambique Haiti Cambodia 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Life expectancy at birth (years) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000

  12. Leadingcauses of death in Africa, 2000 22.6 25.0 20.0 15.0 % of Total 10.1 9.1 10.0 6.7 5.5 4.3 3.6 3.1 2.9 2.3 5.0 0.0 HIV/AIDS Malaria Perinatal conditions Tuber culosis Cerebro vascular disease Measles Lower respiratory infections Diarrhoeal disease Ischaemic Heart disease Maternal conditions Source: The World Health Report 2001, WHO

  13. Maize 61% Cotton 47% Vegetables 49% Groundnuts 37% Cattle owned 29% Reduction in production in a household with an AIDS death, Zimbabwe Crops Reduction in output • • • • • Source: Stover & Bollinger, 1999

  14. Estimated and projected deaths at ages 15-34, with and without AIDS in South Africa: 1980-2025 2,000 Without AIDS 1,600 With AIDS 1,200 Deaths (Thousands) 800 400 0 1980-1985 1985-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 Source: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2001) World Population Prospects, the 2000 Revision.

  15. Reduction in size of primary- school-age population by 2010, in selected African countries 30.0 25.0 20.0 % reduction 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 Zimbabwe Zambia Kenya Uganda Source: World Bank, 2000

  16. Reduction in life expectancy compared to the ‘no AIDS’ scenario in selected countries: 2000-2005 Botswana Zimbabwe Swaziland South Africa Kenya Mozambique Côte d'Ivoire Cameroon Burkina Faso Haiti Guyana Bahamas Cambodia Dominican Rep. Angola Myanmar Thailand 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Number of years Source: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2001) World Population Prospects, the 2000 Revision.

  17. Percentage of 15-19 girls who do not know that a HIV-infected person may look healthy, 1994-1999 100 90 80 70 60 Percentage who do not know 50 40 30 20 10 0 Haiti Mali Chad Togo Peru Lesotho Niger Nepal Brazil Benin Kenya Eritrea Turkey Malawi Zambia Uganda Tanzania Comoros Mongolia Viet Nam Romania Cambodia Cameroon Zimbabwe Guatemala Bangladesh Cape Verde Madagascar Côte d'Ivoire Mozambique South Africa Papua New Guinea Dominican Republic Central African Republic Sources: UNICEF, DHS surveys and other nationwide surveys, 1994-99.

  18. Public expenditure on health as percentage of general government expenditure in African countries: 1998 18.0 15.0 Abuja Target = 15.0% 12.0 % Expenditure on health 9.0 6.0 3.0 0.0 Guinea-Bissau* Central African Republic* Libyan Arab Jamahiriya Equatorial Guinea Djibouti South Africa Mauritius Sierra Leone* Angola Liberia Algeria Cote d'Ivoire Eritrea Burundi Botswana Nigeria Tunisia Somalia Gabon Senegal* Mauritania* Cameroon* Guinea* Ethiopia* Benin* Lesotho Sudan Seychelles Swaziland Niger* Madagascar* Congo Namibia Egypt Burkina Faso Zimbabwe Morocco Togo DR Congo* Zambia* Sao Tome and Principe* Gambia Comoros Mozambique* Cape Verde Chad* * Heavily indebted, poor countries Kenya* Mali* Ghana* Malawi* Uganda* UR Tanzania Rwanda* Source: WHO, World Health Report 2001

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