The Three Themes: Regional Climate Change and Energy Modeling Outstanding Scientific Problems

1. The Three Themes: Regional Climate Change and Energy Modeling Outstanding Scientific Problems Infusion of Data into Models

2. Zhang Marat K. Lin Vogelmann Miller Jensen Wagener Colle Chang Liu Daum Guo NY Blue Center Riemer McGraw Lewis Chang Wang Reisman Bhatt Regional Climate Changes & Energy Modeling Zhang Lin

3. Regional Climate Changes & Energy Modeling Monsoons Storm Tracks Hurricanes Storm Surge Energy use

4. The Walker Circulation Monsoon (Zhang) Zhang and Song (2006)

5. Asian Monsoon

6. Monsoons (Zhang) Simulated Change of Monsoon in Global Warming GFDL CCSM Plan: Resolve mesoscale convective systems using CAM Ensembles

7. Regional Climate changes:Storm track variability and changes (E. Chang) Why are winter storms important? -- weather and regional climate -- transport heat and moisture poleward Impact of storm track changes: -- e.g. El Nino: Pacific storm track shifts southward: significant impacts on west coast climate Global warming model prediction: -- Storm tracks move poleward and intensify -- significant impacts on regional climate and hydrology

8. Issues: -- Reasons for such changes? -- How reliable are these predictions? Current model deficiencies: -- current climate models just resolving these storms -- physics: too strong coupling between moisture and dynamics? (Deficiencies in seasonal cycle) Fundamental science questions: -- what controls the location and intensity of storm tracks? -- Land sea distribution? Mountains? Heating? Methodology: -- Suite of high (1°) and lower resolution GCM simulations -- Novelty: -- diagnosed using a suite of diagnostic (statistical and mechanistic) models developed by the PI -- validation of analyses and GCMs using observations

9. An example: Seasonal cycle of Pacific storm track Reanalysis 250 hPa EKE NOV - FEB Validation of the mid-winter suppression using analyses of observations (Chang 2003) Radiosonde Aircraft Control Zonal mean of 300 hPa EKE simulated by CAM3 No mountains

10. Hurricanes (Wang) Wave period (s)

11. Hurricanes (Wang) 8/27 8/28 8/29 8/30

12. New York City Vulnerability to Storm Surge (Colle) Flood areas for hurricane: CAT 1 CAT 2 CAT 3 CAT 4 Source: Metro New York Hurricane Transportation Study, 1995

13. FDR Drive during the December 1992 nor’easter (Bloomfield, 1999) Ref: Bloomfield, J., M. Smith and N. Thompson, 1999. Hot Nights in the City. Environmental Defense Fund, New York.

14. Advanced Circulation Model for Coastal Ocean Hydrodynamics (ADCIRC) Forced by PSU-NCAR MM5 or WRF Atmospheric model at 12-km grid spacing

15. ADCIRC Water-level and Flooding meters 12-km MM5 Forecast 1200 UTC 11 December 1992

16. Back to the Basics: Climate Change 101 Impacts&VulnerabilityMagnitude & timing, Regional variations Climate Change Science, Processes & Modeling Diminish the Risks Adaptation Systems Characteristics,Capacity to adapt Avoided, Reduced or Delayed Mitigation* Energy technologies, resources, Strategies Impacts, Adaptation & Mitigation: Missing Links (Reisman, Bhatt) • MARKAL analyzes mitigation options for the entire energy system & can address adaptation • Impacts, vulnerability & adaptation (IVA) approaches are difficult to analyze • IVA effects are not yet comprehensively captured, including integrated assessment models (IAMs) *According to the IPCC AR4 WGII“technologies & strategies (for mitigation & adaptation) are known and developed”, but the “assessed literature does notindicatehow effective various options are to fully reduce risks, particularly at higher levels of warming and related impacts, and for vulnerable groups.”

17. MARKAL Reference Energy System MARKAL Overview MARKAL for Mitigation Analysis (Reisman, Bhatt) Integrated energy systems analysis model – bottom-up technology rich • Analyzes environmental, technological and policy restrictions • Facilitates devising optimal strategies for technology deployment based on life-cycle costs • Signifies a flexible, transparent & well documented methodology • Epitomizes scalability: Global, National, Regional, State & Urban variants On-going energy-climate related MARKAL applications include: • President’s State of the Union address 2006 & Pre-Kyoto decision in 1997 • U.S. DOE & U.S. EPA for GHG mitigation & impacts of DOE energy technology R&D on carbon and energy futures: GNEP, Renewable & Hydrogen, Energy-Water Nexus • IPCC Scenario Analysis & G8 initiative – Gleneagles Summit 2005

18. Future Work: IVA Modeling • Develop an integrated feedback rich dynamic model to study long-term climate change impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation that can interact seamlessly with selected climate models and MARKAL • Start with Energy sector for a region (e.g. North-East or New York State) – recent experience: CCSP SAP 4.5 “Effects of Climate Change on Energy Production and Use in U.S.” • Expand to industries, settlements, society, ecology, water and land-use and other regions Benefits: • Identify specific priorities for scientific research on the responses of ecological and socioeconomic systems for decision makers • Holds the best promise of advancing our capacity to manage resources and the economy adaptively under a changing climate

19. Major Feedback Processes among Energy, Climate, Water and Associated Systems Demand Water & Ecology Availability, supply, distribution, consumption and treatment Population Exogenous growth rates Acid Rain & Other Local Contamination Adequate Quality & Quantity Water for Energy Production Population Vulnerability of Supply & Infrastructure Energy for Water Supply and Usage Labor Policy Control heuristics and collaborative partnerships for taxes, incentives and permits on emissions, energy, water and resource depletion Social Impacts Public health Energy Primary resources availability, production, depletion, saturation, technology, pricing Land-use & Settlements Shifts in use patterns, significant regional issues Energy Orders Intangible Social Impacts Utility Urbanization Direct & Indirect Impacts Core-based Development Welfare Long-term Sustainability Energy Use Public Health Concerns Economy Output, capital accumulation, energy demands, capacity utilization Consumption Emissions GHG & Criteria Pollutants Tangible Damages to Land-use Tangible Damages Atmospheric GHG Concentrations Paradigm Shift in Policy Regime Climate Impacts Market and non-market damages from climate change

20. Common Questions What will happen? Why? What are the consequences? Models CAM (physical ensemble with high resolutions) POP ADCIRC MM5 MARKAL