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Innovation “State” of China and Germany May, 2014

Innovation “State” of China and Germany May, 2014. Chinese Academy of Science and Technology for Development 中国科学技术发展战略研究院 Hu Zhijian Li Zhe 胡志 坚 李哲. 为什么是创新“状态”？Why innovation "state"?. 一般采用现状（各种指标）直接比较的办法 Usually various indicators are DIRECTLY compared:

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Innovation “State” of China and Germany May, 2014

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  1. Innovation “State” of China and Germany May, 2014 Chinese Academy of Science and Technology for Development 中国科学技术发展战略研究院 HuZhijian Li Zhe 胡志坚 李哲

  2. 为什么是创新“状态”？Why innovation "state"? • 一般采用现状（各种指标）直接比较的办法 Usually various indicators are DIRECTLY compared: • 德国一些指标领先中国Germany leads China in some indicators • 中国一些指标领先德国China leads Germany in some indicators • 各种排名 Various Countries Ranking in the world • 这种领先与落后有意义吗？But is it really meaningful to say a country is "advaned" or "backward" with this approach? • 政策含义不清The implication of policy is still unclear • 没有考虑创新领域的国际分工和比较优势Falied to consider international division of labour and comparative advantage in terms of innovation • 没有考虑经济发展水平/阶段Failed to consider different stage/level of economic developement • 不能告诉我们各自的竞技状态如何Can not really reveal what their states or conditions are

  3. 为什么是创新“状态”？Why innovation "state"? • 状态比较可能更有意义 Thus it might be more meaningful to compare different conuntries' "state" • 困难：如何诊断一国的创新状态？绝对/相对？Difficulty: How to diagnose one country's innovation "state"? Relatively or absolutely? • 尝试：分类比较（相对）An attempt: grouoped and then compared (relatively) • Germany and China are currently at different stage of development. It will be an interesting perspective to compare their innovation “state” with those countries at the same stage. • 整体竞争力 Overall Competitiveness • 创新资源 Innovation Resources • 产业创新与创新环境 Industrial Innovation and Innovation Environment • FDI和国际贸易 FDI and Trade

  4. Economic Structure • Germany • High income country • GDP per capita 42625 US$（2012） • Has established a relatively complete industrial system and finished the process of urbanization • Agriculture 0.8% of GDP，industry 30.5% of GDP ，services, etc.68.7% of GDP （2012） • Main industrial sectors： automotive manufacture, mechanical engineering, electrical engineering and chemicals. • China • Upper middle-income country • GDP per capita 6091 US$（2012） • Experiencing the rapid development period of urbanization and industrialization • Agriculture 10.1% of GDP，industry 45.3% of GDP ，services, etc.44.6% of GDP （2012） • Main industrial sectors： smelting and pressing of ferrous metal ；manufacture of computers, communication and other electronic equipment； manufacture of transport facilities ； manufacture of raw chemical materials and products source: the Database of World Bank.

  5. Overall Competitiveness • National Innovation Index • World Competitiveness Ranking • Labor Productivity • Investment Returns • Energy Efficiency

  6. Ranking 20122011 19 20 32 34 35 37 38 36 39 40 Ranking 20122011 1 2 2 3 3 1 4 4 5 11 6 5 7 8 8 9 9 6 10 10 11 7 12 12 National Innovation Index • Germany ranks 10th among developed countries, its innovation state is not ideal. • China ranks first among developing countries, its innovation state is relatively good. • 德国在发达国家中的排第10位，相对状态并不是非常理想 • 中国处于发展中国家首位，创新状态相对较好 Source：National Innovation Index 2013

  7. World Competitiveness Ranking • Germany, followed by USA, UK and Japan, takes the lead among developed countries. • China ranks first in developing countries. • 德国在发达国家中领先美国、英国、日本等国，保持领先 • 中国在发展中国家中领先 Source：World Economic Forum " Global Competitiveness Report 2012-2013 "

  8. Labor Productivity (GDP/labors) • Labor Productivity in Germany is slightly lower than the average level of high income countries, its state is steady. • China has surpassed the average level of upper middle income countries since 2009, its state is progressing. • 德国略低于高收入国家的平均水平，状态稳定 • 中国自2009年超过了中等收入国家的平均水平，状态向好 Source: China Statistical Yearbook on Science and Technology

  9. Investment Returns (P/E and P/B in 2013) • Investment return rate of Germany is close to that of USA and higher than that of Japan and France, its state is good among developed countries. • Investment return rate in China is lower than that of other BRICS countries. • 德国的投资回报周期短于法国、日本，与美国相近，在发达国家中处于较好状态 • 中国的投资回报周期高于其他金砖国家，投资效率相对较低 Source: “The Economic Observer” and The author managed Note: The reciprocal of PE ratio reflects investment return rate.

  10. Energy Efficiency - GDP per unit of energy use (Constant 2005 PPP $ per kg of oil equivalent) • Energy efficiency in Germany continues to improve, its state is superior compared to the average level of high income countries. • Energy efficiency in China is improving but still lower than the average level of upper middle income countries. • 德国的能源使用效率不断提高，状态优于高收入国家 • 中国的能源使用效率正在改进，相对中高收入国家仍处于较低水平 Source: World Bank "World Development Indicators" Database

  11. - CO2 emissions (metric tons per capita) Energy Efficiency • Germany ‘s energy efficiency is lower than the average level of high income countries, and shows a downward trend in recent years. Its state is good. • China surpassed the average level of upper middle income countries in 2004 and kept rising in following years. Its state is poor. • 德国明显低于高收入国家的平均水平，近年呈下降趋势，状态良好 • 中国2004年超过中等收入国家的平均水平并持续上升，状态较差 Source: World Bank "World Development Indicators" Database

  12. Innovation Resource • R&D/GDP • Researchers and Technicians (per million people) • Citations Per Paper in ESI • Number of Triadic Patent Families Patents

  13. R&D/GDP (%) • Both Germany and China’s R&D/GDP ratio are above the average of high income countries and upper middle-income countries respectively and keep growing. • 两国分别超过高收入和中高收入国家的平均水平，并呈增长趋势，均处于较好状态 Source: China Statistical Yearbook on Science and Technology

  14. Researchers and Technicians (per million people) • Germany is just below the average level of high income countries but the gap has narrowed in recent years. • China is above the average level of upper middle-income countries and is rich in talent reserve. • 德国略低于高收入国家的平均水平，近年差距有所缩小 • 中国高于中高收入国家的平均水平，在研究和技术人员储备方面状态较好 Source: China Statistical Yearbook on Science and Technology

  15. Citations Per Paper in ESI (times/piece) • Germany is at the upper level among the high income countries and skilled in the knowledge creation. • China is in a leading position among all the developing countries and also in a sound state. • 德国在发达国家处于中上等水平，处于较好的知识创造状态 • 中国在同类发展中国家中处于领先位置，也处于较好的知识创造状态 Source: China Statistical Yearbook on Science and Technology

  16. Number of Triadic Patent Families Patents（2011） • Germany with America and Japan belong to the first-class intellectual powers, while China has stepped up to join the second-class powers, leading other emerging countries. • 德国与美、日同为世界第一梯队的知识产权强国 • 中国快速跃升至第二梯队的知识产权大国，遥遥领先与其它新兴国家 Source: China Statistical Yearbook on Science and Technology

  17. Industrial Innovation and Innovation Environment • R&D Expenditure of Enterprises • Added Value in High-tech Industry • Time and Procedures Required to Start a Business • Innovation Environment

  18. R&D Expenditure Input Intensity of Enterprises • Germany has maintained a steady growth of R&D intensity and it remains at the upper level among developed countries. • China increases its R&D intensity rapidly and takes the lead in BRICS countries. • 德国一直保持稳步增长的高强度研发投入强度，在主要发达国家中处于中上水平 • 中国企业研发投入迅速提高，在金砖国家中领先

  19. Added Value in High-tech Industry • The value of high-tech sectors in Germany grows steadily, but there is still a wide gap between Germany and America. • The scale of high-tech sectors in China expands dramatically, higher than that in other BRICS countries and close to that of the USA. • 德国高技术产业稳定增长，与美国、日本有差距较大。 • 中国高技术产业规模急速扩张，远高于其他金砖国家，接近美国。

  20. Time Required to start a Business • After 2007, the number of days in Germany was lower than the average level of high income countries, revealing its high efficiency. • The number of days in China was lower than the average level of upper middle income countries (except in 2014), also revealing its high efficiency. • 德国在2007年后低于高收入国家平均水平，处于高效率状态 • 中国低于中等收入国家的平均水平（2014年除外），也处于高效率状态 Source: World Bank "Doing Business"

  21. Procedures Required to start a Business • The numbers of procedures in Germany and China are higher than the average levels of high-income countries and upper middle income countries respectively, and they did not decline spontaneously as the average levels did. • The tendencies of both countries reveal their low efficiency. • 德国高于高收入国家的平均水平，且并未与高收入国家同步下降；中国高于中高收入国家的平均水平，也没有与高收入国家实现同步下降 • 两国在这个指标上都处于较低状态 Source: World Bank "Doing Business"

  22. Innovation Environment • Innovation environment in Germany is close to that of the USA and France. Germany ranks higher among developed countries, but it is weak in venture capital availability. • Innovation environment in China is relatively good among BRICS countries, but China is weak in respect of anti-monopoly policy and intellectual property protection. • 德国创新环境与美国、法国相近，在发达国家位居前列，但在风险资本的可获得性等方面较弱 • 中国创新环境在金砖国家中整体较优，在反垄断、知识产权保护等方面较弱 Source：World Economic Forum

  23. FDI and International Trade • Outward FDI stock/ GDP • Rank of Outward FDI Flows • Rank of Inward FDI Flows of Germany and China • Export of GDP • Import of GDP

  24. Outward FDI stock/ GDP (%) • Germany’s outward FDI stock/GDP is higher than the average level of developed countriesand is always in an proactive state doing oversea investment. • China’soutward FDI stock/GDP is far below the average of the world and that of developing countriesand has been increasing in recent years. • 德国的对外投资存量占GDP比例高于发达国家平均水平，处于积极的对外投资状态 • 中国的对外投资存量占GDP比例远低于世界平均水平和发展中国家平均水平，近年有所增长 source:the Database of GERMANY TRADE&INVEST , the Database of UNCTAD and CSYD.

  25. Outward FDI Flows (2012) • Germany’s outward FDI flow is behind that of USA,Japan and UK,ranking 6th in the world and is in a proactivebut steadystate. • China ’s outward FDI flow ranks1st among all the developing countries, 3rd in the world and is in a growing state. • 德国处于美国、日本、英国之后，位于世界第六位，表现为稳定积极的状态 • 中国大陆处于发展中国家的首位，位于世界第三位，处于增长态势 source:based on 2013 world investment report.

  26. Inward FDI flows ofGermany and China(2012) FDI flows to China (millions) FDI flows to Germany (millions) • China’s share ranks 9thamong all the inward FDI flows of Germany, which is less than 1 billion dollars in 2012. • Germany’s share ranks 5th among all the inward FDI flows of China, which is around 2 billion dollars in 2012. • 在德国吸收的外资中，中国位于第九位，不到10亿美元 • 在中国吸收的外资中，德国位于第五位，约20亿美元 Source:OECD.Stat, 2012 statistical belletin of China's outward FDI,International trade in 2014.

  27. Export / GDP(%) • Germany’s export/GDP ratio is much higher than that of other developed countries,and keeps on growing. • China’s export/GDP ratio is similar with that of Russian Federation,South Africa and is declining. • 德国出口占GDP的比例远高于其他发达国家，处于上升态势 • 中国出口占GDP的比例与俄罗斯、南非相近，处于下降态势 source: Database of World Bank.

  28. Import of GDP(%) • Germany’s import/GDP ratio is much higher than that of other developed countries andit keeps on growing. • China’s import/GDP ratio is lower than that of South Africa and India, and itis declining. • 德国进口占GDP的比例远高于其他发达国家，处于积极的状态 • 中国进口占GDP的比例低于南非和印度，总体逐渐下降的状态 source: Database of World Bank.

  29. Conclusions This analytical method based on “state” is just a new exploration for international comparison. The method is preliminary tested by selecting the above indicators. The differences of countries can often be predicted based on traditional comparative approach. Relatively speaking, the results are unpredictable based on this “state” analysis, which may well provide us with some new insights when considering innovation policy. 小结 • 基于“状态”的分析方法只是一种新的尝试 • 通过选取上述指标，我们初步探索应用了这种方法 • 传统的直接比较中，差异在分析之前往往就能预知。相对而言，“状态”方法在分析之前很难预知，能够引申出新的政策含义

  30. Thanks Li Zhe 86-10-58884536, 18910598297 liz@casted.org.cn

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