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-1) Realistic Market Modeling Platforms ( Lev ) A microscopic model of the stock market; Cycles, booms and crashes, E

. (- ∞ ) General Background: The Microscopic Representation of Complex Macroscopic Phenomena, , Annual Reviews of Computational Physics II p 243, ed D. Stauffer, World Scientific 1995 Complexity a Science at 30 , Europhysics News Feb-March 2003 p54 . .

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-1) Realistic Market Modeling Platforms ( Lev ) A microscopic model of the stock market; Cycles, booms and crashes, E

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  1. . (-∞)General Background:The Microscopic Representation of Complex Macroscopic Phenomena, , Annual Reviews of Computational Physics II p 243, ed D. Stauffer, World Scientific 1995 Complexity a Science at 30, Europhysics News Feb-March 2003 p54

  2. . (-∞)General Background:The Microscopic Representation of Complex Macroscopic Phenomena, , Annual Reviews of Computational Physics II p 243, ed D. Stauffer, World Scientific 1995 Complexity a Science at 30, Europhysics News Feb-March 2003 p54

  3. -1) Realistic Market Modeling Platforms (Lev)A microscopic model of the stock market; Cycles, booms and crashes, Economics Letters 45 (1994) 103-111. Behaviorally realistic simulations of stock markets; Traders with a soul, Computer Physics Communications 121-122 (1999) 161 . http://xxx.lanl.gov/abs/adap-org/9901003Microscopic Simulation of Financial Markets, Academic Press, New York, 2000.

  4. Kahneman-Tversky

  5. Lev Thesis; The string market: Statistical Mechanics of Conventional Traders May Lead to Non-Conventional Market Behavior, Physica Scripta. Vol. T106, 41, 2003 Stock market shock explained Physicists model recent trading frenzy. Market 'spikes' are seen by traders as freak events.Physicists expect them, Thursday October 3, 2002

  6. Lev; Frantisek; The Interacting Gaps Model: Physica A 330 (2003) 232. Given offered prices around current price at intervals Limit order Limit order (left unsaturated at current price) Limit order

  7. One may have a new limit order close to the current price: changing the price by 1 tick Limit order Limit order Limit order

  8. Or one may have a new market order that eliminates the order at the current price and goes to the first neighbor: and Limit order Limit order Limit order

  9. Or one may have a new market order that eliminates the order at the current price and goes to the first neighbor followed by the next limit order and Limit order Limit order Limit order

  10. Else one may have a new market order that eliminates the order at the current price at the common price and goes to the first neighbor followed by the next limit order and Limit order Limit order Limit order If one has M limit orders per Market order, the distribution of interval lengths is A power laws with exponent given by the implicit transcendental equation: For M~1 one gets ~1.9 consistent with the market data and not with the continuous approx

  11. 0) Social Critical Percolation, Social percolation models Physica A: 277 (1-2) (2000) 239 http://shum.huji.ac.il/~sorin/soc-per.psGerard Social Percolators and Self Organized Criticality in Handbook of Graphs and Networks:From the Genome to the Internet,p.113 eds. S. Bornholdt and H. G. Schuster, Wiley-VCH, Berlin, 2002. Anti-Percolation; antivirus ; Parallel Networks (SN); herding (Tom help)

  12. Density of potential adopters: 26 /48 > 50%

  13. Percolation transition From non-sales at all to a lot of sales Infinitely sharp at infinite size system

  14. 0) Social Critical Percolation, Social percolation models Physica A: 277 (1-2) (2000) 239 http://shum.huji.ac.il/~sorin/soc-per.psGerard Social Percolators and Self Organized Criticality in Handbook of Graphs and Networks:From the Genome to the Internet,p.113 eds. S. Bornholdt and H. G. Schuster, Wiley-VCH, Berlin, 2002. Anti-Percolation; antivirus ; Parallel Networks (SN); herding (Tom help)

  15. prob

  16. Effects of • Expectations Adaptation • Self tunning to criticality • Fractal fluctuations and correlations

  17. ALSO: effects of Expectations Adaptation Fractal space-time fluctuationsProduct Success prediction (15/ 17)

  18. Resistance

  19. Resistant Acceptant Acceptant Acceptedalready

  20. Resistant Acceptant Acceptant Acceptedalready

  21. Resistant Acceptant blocked Acceptant Acceptedalready

  22. Resistant Acceptant blocked Acceptant Acceptedalready

  23. Resistance Resistant Acceptant Acceptant Acceptedalready

  24. “ANTI-Percolation” Antivirus

  25. Consumption;No herding Consumption; Home + ExpectationsNo herding Workplace Expectations Parallel Networks Consumption+Expectations=Herding Consumption; home WorkExpectations

  26. 0.1 Testing the Turing Test; Do Men Pass the Humanity Test? International Journal of Modern Physics C (Ruthy; to appear)

  27. 2) Stability of Pareto-Zipf law in non-stationary economies in: Economics with heterogeneous interacting agents, ed. A.Kirman and J.B. Zimmermann, Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, Springer, 2001 p 141 http://xxx.lanl.gov/abs/cond-mat/012479 Co-Evolutionist Stochastic Dynamics: Emergence of Power-LawsPower-laws in stochastic Lotka-Volterra-Eigen-Schuster Systems in: "Towards Cognitive Economics", Eds: P. Bourgine and J.-P. Nadal, Springer (2003). 3) Can one predict and verify predictions in Economics?Connecting wealth distribution exponent to market returns exponent Pioneers on a new continent: on physics and economics Quantitative Finance (IoP) Vol 3, No 1, C12 Feb 2003 Go To special presentation

  28. 4)AB- Model, Emergence of Localized, Adaptive, Resilient objects from Noise, The importance of being discrete: Life always wins on the surface Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, Vol. 97, Issue 19, 10322-10324, September 12, 2000 http://xxx.lanl.gov/abs/adap-org/9912005 The risk of being unfair, the unstable fate of globalization (2003) Artific Life 4(9) 357 Innovations Refuse to Die:-The Unforeseen Longevity of Society Fundamental Ideas.(2004) Technological forecasting and Social Change In press The Immune self; Emergence of the Body Self-Cognition Proliferation and competition in discrete biological systems. (2003) Bulletin of mathematical biology 65(3) 375-396 Go To special presentation

  29. 5) Artificial Creativity Creative Sparks Science 285: 1495-1496, 1999; http://shum.huji.ac.il/~sorin/creative-sparks.htm Communication at the speed of sound Herald Tribune

  30. 6) Diagonal Link and Novelty EmergenceTemplates of original innovation: Projecting original incremental innovations from intrinsic information(1999) Technological Forecasting and Social Change, May, Vol. 61/1 P. 1-12. 7) What are Stories made of?What Are Stories Made Of? Quantitative Categorical Deconstruction of CreationInternational Journal of Modern Physics C, Vol. 11, No. 4 (2000) 827-835 http://xxx.lanl.gov/abs/cond-mat/0008192 Figure 2b: General scheme underlying the replacement version of the pictorial analogy template

  31. 8) Traces of Mind; Emergence of Meaning in Drawings Emergence of Representation in Drawing: The Relation Between Kinematic andReferential Aspects Cognitive Development 13, 25-51 (1998)

  32. 9) Microscopic Seers and the emergence of 3 d visionRestricted Ability to Recover 3D Global Motion from 1 D Motion Signals: Theoretical Observations, Vision Research 35 (1995) 569-578. 10) Complexity Faces the Music. Structures of the Mind and Universal Music Science 2001 June 29; 292: 2433 http://shum.huji.ac.il/~sorin/structures.htm 11) Solving Traffic Jams: Human Intervention or Self-Organization? International Journal of Modern Physics, Vol. 14, No. 8 p 1007 12) Living Tree of knowledge; DiscussionDistrict; Self-mapping, Self-Organization and Dynamical Ontology of Communities

  33. 13) Networks and K-cores scaling 14) Genetic vs Internet network; A B A 253270, Z=23 36546, Z=46 C B C D 826, Z=2.83 442, Z=2.22 K~(1+ L/M) Surf->link Copy of gene at other location

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