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Australia’s likely future climate and impacts

Australia’s likely future climate and impacts. Climate Adaptation National Research Flagship. Penny Whetton IPAA March 2010. Global average temperatures are rising. CRU, UEA. CSIRO Climate change: the latest science. Causes of observed warming. IPCC 2001.

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Australia’s likely future climate and impacts

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  1. Australia’s likely future climate and impacts Climate Adaptation National Research Flagship Penny Whetton IPAA March 2010

  2. Global average temperatures are rising CRU, UEA CSIRO Climate change: the latest science

  3. Causes of observed warming IPCC 2001 CSIRO Climate change: the latest science

  4. Global impact of future emissions Garnaut Report (2008) CSIRO Climate change: the latest science

  5. Future temperature changes Global warming by 2100: 450 ppm: 0.8 – 2.1 °C 550 ppm: 1.1 – 2.7 °C No mitigation: 2.4 – 6.4 °C CSIRO Climate change: the latest science

  6. Future temperature changes Global warming by 2100: 450 ppm: 0.8 – 2.1 °C 550 ppm: 1.1 – 2.7 °C No mitigation: 2.4 – 6.4 °C CSIRO Climate change: the latest science

  7. Future rainfall changes IPCC 2007 Precipitation increase in ≥90% of simulations Precipitation decrease in ≥75% of simulations Precipitation increase in ≥75% of simulations Precipitation decrease in ≥90% of simulations More rainfall, except drier in mid-latitudes (including southern Australia) CSIRO Climate change: the latest science

  8. Sea-level rise will continue CSIRO Climate change: the latest science

  9. Australia’s climate has changed Temperature: greatest warming in eastern and central Australia, with more extremely hot days and fewer frosts Rainfall: wetter in the northwest and drier in the southwest and east CSIRO Climate change: the latest science

  10. Future changes in average temperature 2030: 0.6 to 1.5°C warmer for a medium emissions scenario 2070: 1.0 to 2.5°C warmer for a low emissions scenario 2070: 2.2 to 5°C warmer for a high emissions scenario Small changes in average temperature have a big effect on extreme daily temperatures °C Median warming in 2030, relative to 1990, for a medium emissions scenario CSIRO Climate change: the latest science

  11. Future changes in average rainfall • Annual rainfall in 2030 • Southern Aus: 0 to -10% • Northern Aus: +5 to -10% Largest rainfall decreases in winter and spring Increased drought extent and frequency in the south Heavier rain-storms in summer and autumn, little change in winter and spring Median % rainfall change in 2030, relative to 1990, for a medium emissions scenario (stippling shows where at least 67% of models agree on the direction of change) CSIRO Climate change: the latest science

  12. Future cyclones and storm surges Stronger tropical cyclones, with uncertainty about changes in frequency Larger oceanic storm surges, superimposed on sea-level rise CSIRO Climate change: the latest science

  13. Potential impacts Water security problems are likely to intensify in southern and eastern Australia Around 9% less water in the northern Murray Darling Basin (MDB) by 2030, and 13% less in the southern MDB Greater risks for coastal flooding from sea-level rise and storm surges Area inundated by a 1-in-100 year storm surge in Cairns is likely to double by 2050 Significant loss of biodiversity in sensitive areas By 2020, bleaching and damage to Great Barrier Reef equivalent to that in 1998 and 2002 in up to 50% of years CSIRO Climate change: the latest science

  14. Potential impacts Greater risks to major infrastructure due to increases in extreme weather events, including bush fire More damage to buildings, transport services, energy services, telecommunications and water services More heat-related deaths for people aged over 65 1115 deaths per year at present in the 5 largest capital cities, increasing to 2300-2500 per year by 2020 Reduced production in agriculture and forestry in south and east National wheat yield: +10% to -50% by 2070 Reduced grape quality by 2030 CSIRO Climate change: the latest science

  15. Seeking solutions to the climate change challenge • Mitigation • Reducing greenhouse gas emissions to address the cause of climate change; • Adaptation • Preparing for the impacts of climate change; • Aim is to reduce the negative consequences, take advantage of any possible opportunities. CSIRO Climate change: the latest science

  16. Responding to climate change Higher impacts and adaptation later Low mitigation now CSIRO Climate change: the latest science

  17. Responding to climate change Higher impacts and adaptation later High mitigation now Low mitigation now Lower impacts and adaptation later CSIRO Climate change: the latest science

  18. Penny Whetton Phone: +61 3 9239 4535 Email: Penny.Whetton@csiro.au CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research Presenter’s name Presenter’s title Phone: +61 3 9545 2176 Email: Name.Name@csiro.au Web: www.cmar.csiro.au CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research Presenter’s name Presenter’s title Phone: +61 3 9545 2176 Email: Name.Name@csiro.au Web: www.cmar.csiro.au/group Thank you Thank you Contact UsPhone: 1300 363 400 or +61 3 9545 2176Email: Enquiries@csiro.au Web: www.csiro.au Contact UsPhone: 1300 363 400 or +61 3 9545 2176Email: Enquiries@csiro.au Web: www.csiro.au CSIRO Climate change: the latest science

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