Michelle Colley UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) ukcip.uk

1. Handling climate risks and uncertainties in decision-making Climate Impacts Forecasting for Slopes (CLIFFS) Launch meeting 26 October 2005 Michelle Colley UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) www.ukcip.org.uk

2. What is UKCIP? • The UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) helps organisations assess how they might be affected by climate change, so they can prepare for its impacts • Set up 1997; funded by Defra • Programme of the Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University Centre for the Environment • Stakeholder-led research using: • Common tools & experience • Intelligent access to datasets • Guidance & support for studies & partnerships • Web access to all tools

3. UKCIP tools

4. Handling climate risks and uncertainties in decision-making • Range of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, climate models & scenarios – unknown probabilities • Natural climate variability too • Uncertainty about impacts these climate changes will have on any system • Uncertainty about whether adaptation measures will work • How can decisions be made?

5. UKCIP/EA decision-making framework • Framework describes process for appraisal and management of risks and uncertainties • Similar to others used for corporate risk management – recognisable to decision-makers • Bringing ‘climate adaptation’ and ‘risk management’ worlds together • Enables climate risks to be ‘mainstreamed’ within existing processes

6. Take a balanced approach to managing climate and non-climate risks 1

7. Define what makes the correct decision • Need operational criteria for risk assessment and options appraisal • Take account of defined thresholds and risk attitude (optimistic, precautionary/risk averse, least regret) 2 (Based on Hewitt & Burton (1971); Smit et al (2000); Jones (2001))

8. 3 Give appropriate attention to all sources of uncertainty • Information on low probability / high consequence events may be most uncertain – but risk assessment may show these are highest risk • Identify important climate risk factors – priorities for adaptation • Uncertainty in non-climate risks and impact models may be of equal or greater significance than uncertainties over present or future climate hazards • Thresholds-based approach may help focus attention on critical uncertainties

9. 5 4 Use adaptive managementto cope with uncertainty • Put in place incremental adaptation options, rather than undertaking large-scale adaptation in one fell swoop • Keep open / increase options that allow climate adaptation in future, when need for adaptation and performance of different measures is less uncertain • E.g. Flood management: It may be sensible to allow for future increases in defence height, while not building to a higher standard immediately • Circular, iterative framework promotes adaptive management

10. 5 4 Try to find no- or low-regretadaptation options • ‘No regret’: deliver benefits that exceed their costs, whatever the extent of climate change • E.g. If already experiencing weather-related problems, carry out cost-effective actions to deal with them • ‘Low regret’: low cost, potentially large benefits under climate change • E.g. Building climate change in at the design stage for new drainage system – make pipes wider

11. 5 4 Try to find win-win options • ‘Win-win’ options contribute to climate adaptation and also to other objectives • E.g. Creation of salt-marsh habitat provides flood protection for coastal areas and also contributes to nature conservation objectives

12. 6 Avoid actions that will make it more difficult to cope with climate risks • Adaptation-constraining decisions make it more difficult for you, or others to manage future climate risks • E.g. Inappropriate development in a flood risk area

13. www.ukcip.org.uk