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Background

The CEPRIG Model ( C alculate the E missions and formulate P olicies to R educe I talian G HGs) Sandro FURLAN Scuola E. Mattei for Italian Ministry of Environment. Background. Actual Approach MARKAL Econometric estimations to supply input data for MARKAL to make comparison available

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Background

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  1. The CEPRIGModel(Calculate the Emissions and formulate Policies to Reduce Italian GHGs) Sandro FURLANScuola E. Matteifor Italian Ministry of Environment Brussels Workshop 27-28/02/02

  2. Background • Actual Approach • MARKAL • Econometric estimations • to supply input data for MARKAL • to make comparison available • projections made in 1997 for: Brussels Workshop 27-28/02/02

  3. Background Brussels Workshop 27-28/02/02

  4. Model Description • Approach • System Dynamics • Bottom-up • Main Characteristics • interactions within the system • feedback relations of the variables • the crucial role of the time variable Brussels Workshop 27-28/02/02

  5. Model Description • Goals • Scenario Analysis • Time Horizon (hystorical 1990-1995) • base year 1998 • 2005, • 2010, • 2020 qualitative valuation of different indicators • Activity level, energy consumption, GHGs • Policies Analysis Brussels Workshop 27-28/02/02

  6. Model Description • Sectors • Industry, • Electricity, • Transports, • Residential, • Agricolture, • Other Sectors Brussels Workshop 27-28/02/02

  7. Industry • 11 subsectors • metals, Non ferrous metals, Mechanical, Food, Textile, Building materials, glass, Chemicals, paper, minerals, other manufactures • 3 key variables • activity level, energy intensity, energy mix • Modelling • statistical and econometric function referring to the National Energy Data (1965 -1998) • interaction with prices Brussels Workshop 27-28/02/02

  8. Activity level Energy Intensity (E/PROD) IE * PROD TOTAL CONSUMPTION Prices Scenario Share of energy CONSUMPTION OF ENERGY ( i ) CO2 Coefficients CO2 Emissions Aggregationi TOTAL EMISSIONS Brussels Workshop 27-28/02/02

  9. Electricity • Database of > 200 power plants according to: • 14 technologies • gas turbine, coal, hydro, renewable, combined cycle, etc. • 4 fuels • gas, coal, LSFO, FO025 • 2 “simulated” fuels • Most Economic Fuel (MEF), GT (MEF+ natural gas) Brussels Workshop 27-28/02/02

  10. Transports Economic indicatorsGDP, prices Mobility demand(km/year) CO2emissions Unit consumption(l/km) fuel consumption Vehicles fleet (vintage, power ) Emission coefficient EUROstandards motorization Brussels Workshop 27-28/02/02

  11. Transports • Only pure transport consumption is considered • infrastructure, vehicle production, fuel production are not included • National data on energy consumption do not distinguish between • pax and freight • sells and consumption • national and foreigners Brussels Workshop 27-28/02/02

  12. Transports • CO2 emissions = Qfuels * emission factors • Problem: calculation of emisssions in the electricity production • calculation of emission related to the production accordind to the energy mix • In the TRANSPORT sector the rail and EV electricity demand will be an input for the Electricity module • Problem: dificult to perform a time related emission for freight considering the tons/km Brussels Workshop 27-28/02/02

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