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The Balkans: Problems and Prospects Vladimir Gligorov Brussels, December 9

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The Balkans: Problems and Prospects Vladimir Gligorov Brussels, December 9

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    1. The Balkans: Problems and Prospects Vladimir Gligorov Brussels, December 9

    2. Contents Growth and external imbalances Effects of crisis Growth prospects Regional and EU integration

    3. GDP per capita, 2008 EUR at PPPs

    4. Real GDP growth in CEE and SEE, 2000 = 100

    5. FDI stock, per capita, in NMS and SEEC, 2000-2008, EUR

    6. FDI stock, per capita, in NMS and SEEC, 2000-2008, EUR

    7. Industrial production, 2008

    8. Exports of goods and services (BOP) in % of GDP

    9. Exports in NMS and SEE, EUR mn

    10. Exports of goods and services (BOP) in % of GDP

    11. Technology-driven industries, as % of total manufacturing exports to the EU

    12. Low-skill industries, as % of total manufacturing exports to the EU

    13. Labour-intensive industries, as % of total manufacturing exports to the EU

    14. Trade balances of goods and services and income balances 2000-2008, in % of GDP

    15. Trade balances of goods and services and income balances 2000-2008, in % of GDP

    16. Trade balance (commodities) in % of GDP in SEE and CEE

    17. Current account in % of GDP in SEE and CEE

    18. Private transfers in SEE in % of GDP

    19. Components of the Balance of Payments in % of GDP, 2008

    20. Gross external debt in % of GDP

    21. Gross external debt in % of exports of goods and services (BOP)

    22. General government budget balance, in % of GDP

    23. Labour market indicators 2008 LFS, in % average

    24. Unemployment rates, 2007-2009 in %, annual average, LFS

    25. The main problem Weak tradeable sector External imbalances Low domestic savings

    26. GDP growth rates, 2005-2010 year-on-year, growth in %

    27. Industrial production growth, 2005-2010 year-on-year, growth in %

    29. Industrial production: very slow recovery Industrial production, July 2008 = 100

    30. Foreign trade: very weak recovery

    31. Foreign trade: exports flat

    32. Exchange rates* Flexible exchange rate: drastic real depreciation after September 2008 2008-2009, EUR NCU, Jan. 2008 = 100

    33. Exchange rates* De-facto fixed exchange rate: modest real depreciation after September 2008 2008-2009, EUR NCU, Jan. 2008 = 100

    34. Exchange rates* Currency board or euro as legal tender: minor real depreciation after September 2008 2008-2009, EUR NCU, Jan. 2008 = 100

    35. Consumer prices, 2008-2009 August 2008 = 100

    36. Integration Regional cooperation – trade and investment – Resenstein-Rodan big push policies – however it is a small and shrinking region European Union perspective – key for stability and also regional cooperation

    37. Conclusions There are no quick fixes Growth model has to be reconsidered due to sustainability and feasibility issues Savings will have to be increased and consumption will have to grow slowly if at all in the medium term Economic policies will have to be changed and structural reforms wil be necessary with the aim to change the real exchange rate

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