Assessing Investment & Financial flows for Mitigation in the ENERGY Sector

1. Assessing Investment & Financial flows for Mitigation in the ENERGY Sector UNDP I&FF Methodology Guidebook: Mitigation

2. Relevance of energy sector • Primary source of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions • Emissions from this sector have grown faster than those in any other sector since 1970, & will continue to be the largest source of global GHG emissions • Energy sector key to development: energy-related GHG emissions are growing fast in most highly dynamic (high growth) developing countries • Energy sector was responsible for 87% of GHG emissions in Turkmenistan in 2004 • Some mitigation options bring important local co-benefits: energy security, low cost energy options, improved local environmental & health conditions, etc.

3. Relevance of energy sector • Relevant energy subsectors & mitigation options vary according to each country circumstances & development priorities • REGIONAL CENTRE: PLEASE INSERT PIE CHART FOR THE COUNTRY ON DIFFERENT SOURCES OF EMISSIONS WITHIN ENERGY SECTOR WITH HELP OF THE COUNTRY & NATIONAL COMMUNICATION

4. I&FF ASSESSMENTSUMMARY OF KEY STEPS Establish key parameters of assessment (scoping) Collect data (historic- present - projections) Define baseline scenario & associated I&FF Define CC (mitigation) scenario & associated I&FF Estimate incremental I&FF to implement mitigation Evaluate policy measures

5. 1. Establish key parameters of the assessment • Define scope & boundaries for the assessment • What are the key subsectors to be included? • Define the institutional framework • Specify the time horizon for the analysis: 2005-2030 recommended, base year 2005 recommended • Build on existing model for the sector where possible

6. Energy-related GHG emissions in Turkmenistan (2004)

7. 1. Establish key parameters of assessment Define boundaries for the assessment Example list of subsectors for screening & prioritization

8. 2. Compile historical I&FF data and other input data for scenarios Focus: Local data at adequate aggregation level to identify investment types (e.g. wind energy facilities, biomass fired power plant, etc.), public programmes (e.g. energy efficiency program to replace incandescent bulbs), their costs & financing sources Recommended options: Sector investment & public programmes data, projections & development plansGHG Inventories, National Communications to UNFCCC

9. 2. Compile historical I&FF data and other input data for scenarios Data collection, rely on national accounts data The System of National Accounts (SNA) constitutes the primary source of information about the economy Systems of integrated environmental & economic accounts (SEEA) were developed to address statistical gaps

10. Data collection, rely on national accounts data 2. Compile historical I&FF data and other input data for scenarios • Examples of I&FF data disaggregation in each sub-sector

11. 3. Define Baseline Scenario • Define the physical basis for the Baseline Scenario • A baseline scenario: description of what is likely to occur in the absence of ADDITIONAL policies to address climate change; expected socioeconomic trends (e.g., population growth & migration, economic growth), technological change (if relevant), & expected business-as-usual investments in the sector.

12. Define baseline scenario • Characterizing baseline for each relevant energy supply & energy end-use subsector over the assessment period • Assuming no new climate change policies are implemented • Baseline scenario reflects • Current sectoral & national plans • Expected socioeconomic trends • Expected investments in the subsectors • Use of available model/s (e.g. used for National Communication) may facilitate scenario definition 3. Define baseline scenario

13. Define physical basis for the Baseline Scenario • Information should be disaggregated by: • Year (starting 10 years before the Base Year) • Source (by corporations & government) • Type (national funds, foreign direct investment, official development assistance) 3. Define baseline scenario

14. 4. Derive I&FF for baseline scenario • Compile annual estimates, disaggregated by investment entity, source, investment flow type, & financial flow type & disaggregate costs of conventional & unconventional sources of energy • Calculate the total investment costin real, unannualized terms over the planning period • Estimate annual investment costsassociated with the new plan • Develop a breakdown of total investmentsinto major categories (e.g., ODA, FDI, domestic funds)

15. Estimate annual I&FF Adding costs to baseline scenario 4. Derive I&FF for baseline scenario

16. 5. Define Mitigation scenario Mitigation scenario: incorporates measures to reduce GHG emissions The mitigation scenario should describe expected socioeconomic trends, technological change (if relevant), relevant measures to mitigate GHG emissions, & the expected investments in key areas of the energy sector (e.g. end-use & supply subsectors) to implement those mitigation measures. Costing tools & international information sources may help to identify I&FF needs for different mitigation options

17. Energy Sector Mitigation Measures 5. Define mitigation scenario

18. Two approaches to define Mitigation Scenario • Approach #1: assume an end point for energy supply emissions • E.g. setting a target in 2030 for emissions from the energy supply sector • Approach #2: assume a set of technologies for energy supply: • E.g. Review national potential for energy policy that articulate a set of technological options, such as renewable energy, & other carbon-reducing options to meet future energy demand 5. Define mitigation scenario

19. 6. Derive I&FF for Mitigation Scenario • Compile annual estimates, disaggregated by investment entity, source, investment flow type, & financial flow type • Estimate annual investment costs associated with the alternative management plan • Calculate the total investment cost in real, unannualized terms over the planning period. • Develop a breakdown of total investments into major categories (e.g., ODA, FDI, domestic funds)

20. Project I&FF associated with the Mitigation Scenario Adding costs to mitigation scenario 6. Derive I&FF for mitigation scenario

21. Projecting Investments Adding costs to mitigation scenario 6. Derive I&FF for mitigation scenario

22. 7. Estimate changes in annual I&FF needed to implement adaptation • Subtractthe baseline annual I&FF, by entity & source, from the mitigation annual I&FF, by entity & source • Subtraction of the Baseline Scenario from the Mitigation Scenario • Sum incremental amounts over all years, by entity & source

23. For each chosen energy mitigation option, the analysis should identify the incremental investment (total dollars) by source (domestic funds, ODA, FDI etc.) up through 2030 necessary for its implementation 7. Estimate changes in annual I&FF needed to implement mitigation • Subtract the baseline annual I&FF from the mitigation annual I&FF [

24. Summarizing incremental investments REGIONAL CENTRE: PLEASE INSERT COUNTRY FIGURES FOR THE COUNTRY 7. Estimate changes in annual I&FF needed to implement mitigation [

25. 8. Evaluate policy implications • Objective: Analyze additional efforts, funding & policy needs to implement measures identified in the mitigation scenario • Determine policy instruments & measures to encourage changes in I&FF • Identify the entities that are responsible for the significant incremental changes in I&FF • Determine the predominant sources of their funds, particularly important to distinguish between public & private sources of finance

26. Examples of mitigation & policy option 8. Evaluate policy implications Assess contribution and suitability of different policy options given country conditions

27. 9. Synthesize results and complete report • For more information on synthesizing results, documentation & the completion of the report, please refer to the Reporting Guidelines

28. Q&A CLARIFICATIONS ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?

29. Possible models and methods Additional Information