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Nowcasting of the middle atmosphere state based on the reconstructed SSI data

Nowcasting of the middle atmosphere state based on the reconstructed SSI data T. Egorova * , E. Rozanov *,** , N. Hochmuth *** , A.I. Shapiro * , A.V. Shapiro *,** , and W. Schmutz * *PMOD/WRC, Davos, Switzerland ** ETHZ, Zurich, Switzerland

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Nowcasting of the middle atmosphere state based on the reconstructed SSI data

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  1. Nowcasting of the middle atmosphere state based on the reconstructed SSI data T. Egorova*, E. Rozanov*,**, N. Hochmuth***, A.I. Shapiro*, A.V. Shapiro*,**, and W. Schmutz* *PMOD/WRC, Davos, Switzerland ** ETHZ, Zurich, Switzerland *** Institut für 4D-Technologien Fachhochschule Nordwestschweiz, Switzerland SOTERIA, 30 May–01 June 2011

  2. Outline • Project goals and components • Model description and validation • Demonstration of LyraViewer: visualization

  3. Goals of the project • Find out how well we understand the solar irradiance influence on the middle atmosphere • Learn how to manage near-real-time operation and visualization

  4. Nowcast of chemical composition in the middle atmosphere WP5 D5.3: Reconstructed SSI data for 120-680 nm SOTERIA: Th. Dudok de Wit and L. E. A. Viera WP5 D5.4: CICM SOCOLi with SSI data from D5.3 WP5 D5.4: Nowcastingresults available online every 6 hours Nowcast of anomalies of neutral and charged species with free running CICM SOCOLi Output validation to improve the model and experimental set-up WP6 D6.5: Online publishing of the middle atmosphere chemical composition

  5. MEZON MA-ECHAM4 Chemistry-Ionosphere Climate model SOCOLi Egorova et al. 2005; Schraner et al. 2008; Egorova et al. 2010 • t = 15 min for dynamics • t = 2 h for radiation • horizontal resolution: T30 (3.75°) • vertical resolution: 39 levels to 0.01 hPa CTM: Model for Evaluation of oZONe trends Rozanov et al. 1999, 2001 Egorova et al. 2001, 2003 GCM: Middle Atmosphere version of the European Center/Hamburg Model 4 Manzini and McFarlane, 1998 • t = 2 h for radiation and chemistry • 41 chemical species • Electrons, 17 negative ions, • 31 positive ions • Reactions: 118 gas-phase, 33 photolysis, 16 het, 500 ionic • GCM-CTM coupling by O3 , H2O, CH4, N2O, CFCs

  6. Model validation: • HEPPA comparison • (High Energy Particle Precipitation in the Atmosphere) • Case-study SPE October-November 2003 • O3 : MIPAS observations • 2. Case-study June-August 2004 • OH : MLS observations

  7. Relative deviation of the solar irradiance in Lyman- line from the 2-month mean. Compiled by J. Lean

  8. Electron density in the tropics Solar UV SPE km GCR Tropical mean time evolution (10-11.2003) of the electron concentration (cm-3) IR provided by J.-M. Wissing, AIMOS model

  9. Ozone changes due to Haloween storm SPE Funke et al.,2011

  10. SSI at 205 nm since 1.06.2004 Case study with CICM SOCOLi: Increase SSI by ~5% The sensitivity of the OH,O3 and electrons for 2004-5 can be estimated using any of availble data sets

  11. Comparison with observations: Hydroxyl (tropical mean) 75 km June, July and August 2004

  12. CCM SOCOLi output 4D: latitude, longitude, altitude, time Mixing ratio of the chosen neutral species and electrons, negative and positive ions density for the 6 hour period after the last reconstructed SSI data Charged components: O+, O2+, O4+, N+, NO+, N2+, H2O2+, H3O+,O2+∙N2, O2+∙H2O, H3O+∙OH, NO+∙H2O, NO+∙(H2O)2, NO+∙(H2O)3, NO+∙CO2, NO+∙N2, NO+∙H2O∙CO2, NO+∙H2O∙N2, NO+∙(H2O)2∙CO2, NO+∙(H2O)2∙N2, H+∙(H2O)2, H+∙(H2O)3, H+∙(H2O)4, H+∙(H2O)5, H+∙(H2O)6, H+∙(H2O)7, H3O+∙CO2, H3O+∙N2, H+∙(H2O)2∙CO2, H+∙(H2O)2∙N2 e¯,O¯, O2¯, O3¯, O4¯, OH¯, CO3¯, CO4¯, NO2¯, NO3¯, HCO3¯, ClO¯, Cl¯, CH3¯,O2¯∙H2O, NO3¯∙H2O, CO3¯∙H2O Neutral components: O3 , O* , O , O2*, NO, HO2, ClO, NO2 , OH, NO3, N2O5, HNO3,HONO3, ClONO2, Cl, N, N*, H2O2, H, HOCl, Cl2, Cl2O2, HCl , Br, CH2O, BrO, HBr, HOBr, BrNO3, BrCl, CH3, CH3O2, CH3O, HCO, CH3O2H, H2O, CFC-11, CFC-12, N2O, CH4, CO, H2, CBrF3

  13. Output parameters: Neutral: O3, NO, NO2, OH, H2O Charged: e-, e*, total p+ Thermo-dyn.: T, den, GPH Homepage: http://projects.pmodwrc.ch/lyra/

  14. Snap-shot of visualization package

  15. Snap-shot of visualization package

  16. Conclusions and outlook • Model has been developed and validated, it reasonably reproduces the resposnse of the middle atmosphere to the variability of SSI and particles • Visualization software has been developed • Online publishing of chemical composition of the middle atmosphere from nowcasting CCM with input from reconstrustions of SSI (D6.5) • Online operational nowcast of the chemical composition of the middle atmosphere (D5.4) • Some things left to polish: homepage, visualization package

  17. PMOD/WRC, Davos • End of the presentation… • Thank you!!!

  18. What has been done? • Development CCM with ion chemistry: CICM SOCOLi • Model validation has been performed (e.g. HEPPA) • Visualization software has been developed • CICM SOCOLi working with reconstructed SSI from WP5 D5.3 • On-line publishing of the model data (D5.3) • On-line nowcasting of the middle atmosphere parameters

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