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GECAFS-Decision Support Systems

GECAFS-Decision Support Systems. Questions, SCIENCE Outputs Hypotheses. Science-based Toolkit. DSS. Policies, Decision, Decisions Processes. Society Policy Makers Data, Processes Questions, Needs. DSS. Questions, SCIENCE Outputs Hypotheses. Science-based Toolkit.

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GECAFS-Decision Support Systems

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  1. GECAFS-DecisionSupport Systems

  2. Questions, SCIENCE Outputs Hypotheses Science-based Toolkit DSS Policies, Decision, Decisions Processes Society Policy Makers Data, Processes Questions, Needs DSS

  3. Questions, SCIENCE Outputs Hypotheses Science-based Toolkit DSS

  4. Policies, Decision, Decisions Processes Society Policy Makers Data, Processes Questions, Needs DSS

  5. Questions, SCIENCE Outputs Hypotheses Science-based Toolkit Policies, Decision, Decisions Processes Society Policy Makers Data, Processes Questions, Needs DSS

  6. Questions, SCIENCE Outputs Hypotheses Science-based Toolkit DSS Policies, Decision, Decisions Processes Society Policy Makers Data, Processes Questions, Needs DSS

  7. Initial Ideas/Designs for Decision Support Systems: QnD in the GECAFS project Greg KikerAgricultural and Biological Engineering Dept.P.O. Box 110570Gainesville, FL 32611-0570Phone: (352) 392-1864 ext 291Email: gkiker@ufl.edu

  8. QnD Model and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) • QnD is a configurable decision support/scenario exploration program • Currently we are working to combine QnD results with more available commercial MCDA software • QnD + MCDA should allow both exploration of time-based, “tactical” management versus more policy-oriented, “strategic” trade-off analysis

  9. QnD Model: What is it? • QnD™ – “Questions and Decisions™” or “Quick n Dirty” • A fully integrated Graphic User Interface (GUI) with a flexible model engine • One model - Many ecosystems • Java code / XML inputs / Open Source code • “Uses Mainstream Technology” • Java-based deployment in web browsers • “Fast Deployment” (weeks/months) • Spatial simulation with GIS linkage • Multiple time steps • Multiple maps/graphs/files for output variables

  10. subComponent subProcess QnD Model: Main Sections “Simulation Engine” “Game View” • Developer’s point of contact • Creates information • Objects: Components, Processes and Data • Calculation for selected time step • User/Player’s point of contact • Communicates information • “Widgets”: Maps, Charts, Warning Lights, Text, Sliders, Icons, Buttons • User choices – management settings, simulate fast or slow time step, reset

  11. Actors • Players: Interact mostly with the game view. • Explore management responses, adaptive opportunities, trade-offs for different scenarios. • Provide reality checks • Have some interest in the engine structure in their area of interest • Provide ideas and directions for further iterations • Developers: Interact mostly with the engine. • Design and implement engine/game view through XML files. • Provide formal calibration/validations • Implement ideas and directions of Players • Have some interest in the model code  subComponent GameDriver.java ModelCreator.java • Coders: Interact mostly with the QnD source code. • Develop java code to expand engine and game view utility • Create new programming code for ideas from Players and Developers… PrimaryGameFrame.java subProcess “Game View” “Simulation Engine” QnD Java Source Code

  12. QnD: How Do You Use It? • We have developed a Development ↔ Iteration methodology • Exploring management/policy options under various scenarios • Explore management reactions/strategies • Teaching/Classroom/Learning sessions • Use expert opinion, “other” model results/relationships • Use as a traditional model • Integrate field-measured results • Create predictions under various conditions

  13. Genesis Session Prototype QnD Game View and Simulation Engine • Talk about the system, goals, desires • Explore current management options • Gather initial maps/data • Brainstorm about desired management options, relevant information and socio-economic realities • Rough estimate of components, processes and data • Simple information • Deployed in limited circulation for calibration/reality checks Iterative Sessions 1…n Deployed QnD Model • Refine goals, objectives • Explore current and possible management options • Calibrate/Validate engine performance • Revise Game View for relevant management information • Make changes concerning management options, relevant information and socio-economic factors • Player/Developer reviewed components, processes and data • More relevant information • Brainstorm about desired management options, relevant information and socio-economic realities QnD: Development Methodology

  14. 2. ASSIMILATING: What can we do? What are the themes which Constitute potential areas For improvement or transformation? 1. DIVERGING: What is there? Build as rich a picture as possible of the problem situation, through conversation. 3. CONVERGING: What is important? What system of human activities do we need to design to achieve the transformation we believe could lead to improvement of the situation? 4. ACCOMMMODATING: What does it mean? How do we use our model system to establish debate amongst stakeholders, to decide what is feasible, and to achieve the change? Abstract world Real world Soft systems considerations represented in terms of Kolb’s Knowledge Forms (after Bawden et al., 1984).

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