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Quantify Activity 3: Large chemistry modeling

Quantify Activity 3: Large chemistry modeling. 3.1 Model evaluation and current impact 3.1.1 Evaluation of multi-model performance against observations 3.1.2 Current chemical composition change by transport emissions 3.1.3 Effective emissions 3.1 Process studies

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Quantify Activity 3: Large chemistry modeling

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  1. Quantify Activity 3: Large chemistry modeling 3.1 Model evaluation and current impact 3.1.1 Evaluation of multi-model performance against observations 3.1.2 Current chemical composition change by transport emissions 3.1.3 Effective emissions 3.1 Process studies 3.2.1 Precipitation impact on sulphur and nitrogen compounds 3.2.2 Aircraft induced sulphur impact on UTLS ozone 3.2.3 Impact of cirrus clouds 3.3 Future impact and mitigation options 3.3.1 Future chemical composition change by transport emissions 3.3.2 Impact of future climate change 3.3.3 Possible mitigation strategies

  2. WP3.1.1 Evaluation of multi-model performance against observations Status • Focus on year 2003 and on [convective transport, STE, and BL venting] • Campaign data in ETH-MEG database: • SPURT, MOZAIC, CONTRACE II, WDCGG surface observations, ozonesondes • Satellite data:SCIAMACHY NO2 columns (planned) • Advanced analysis tools: point-to-point comparisons, pdf‘s, & Taylor diagrams, … • Time-pos data on-line available • Observations and model output available after signing data protocol

  3. WP3.1.2 Current impact of transport modes Applied large scale chemistry models: TM4 (off-line ECMWF meteo) Oslo CTM2 (off-line ECMWF meteo) p-TOMCAT (off-line ECMWF meteo) LMDZ-INCA (relaxed to ECMWF meteo) E5/MESSY (relaxed to ECMWF meteo) E39/C (10 year simulation 1990s)

  4. Set-up for current impact simulations Emissions for 2000 (on ftp-server Mainz): EDGAR-FT 2000, incl, road traffic Ship emissions from Endresen AERO2K aviation emissions Biogenic emissions from MPI Match Surface CH4 prescribed Lightning 5 Tg(N) /yr Simulations: all emissions (base) -5% aircraft emissions -5% ship emissions -5% road traffic emissions -5% transport (aircraft+ships+road traffic) Model output on Oslo fileserver: http://srb.uio.no/mySRB

  5. Background Transport NOx July (monthly mean zonal mean 2003) TM4 Ships Road Aircraft

  6. Background Aircraft Ships Road Transport TM4 NOx July (monthly mean zonal mean 2003) Oslo CTM2 p-TOMCAT LMDz-INCA E39c (1990s)

  7. Ozone perturbation by transport modes (LMDZ-INCA) Lightning : 2.24 TgN/yr Aircraft Road traffic Ships April April April Max: 2.3 ppbv Max: 2.08 ppbv Max: 1.97 ppbv July July July Max: 2.96 ppbv Max: 2.76 ppbv Max: 2.24 ppbv 6,85 TgN/yr 8.02 TgO3/yr 4,39 TgN/yr 7,14 TgO3/yr 0,67 TgN/yr 3,58 TgO3/yr 1st EU-India Strategic S&T Workshop "Climate change research needs", New Delhi, 8-9 Feb 2007

  8. Background Aircraft Ships Road Transport TM4 Ozone July (monthly mean zonal mean 2003) Oslo CTM2 p-TOMCAT LMDz-INCA E39c (1990s)

  9. Methane lifetime changes (%) Linearity/additiveness Ships have relatively large impact

  10. Change (%) in the aircraft effect on O3 due to plume effects in OsloCTM2 (T42) (plume-noplume)/(noplume-noaircraft)*100% WP3.1.3 Effective emissions – preliminary results

  11. WP3.1.3 Effective emissionsApproach proposed by CERFACS ∂  NOx/ ∂ t = + (1/ ).EI .f+ <V.  NOx> + large scale chemistry terms ..  NOxlarge scale (CTM/GCM) mixing ratio f fuel tracer mixing ratio EI Emission Index due to small scale chemical conversions only time scale for the diffusion, provided by Act. 2

  12. Aircraft Ships Road traffic WP3.2.1 Precipitation impactNOy deposition in TM4 Dry Wet

  13. WP3.2.1 Precipitation impactNOy deposition in LMDZ-INCA

  14. Conclusions Results from models different but consistent Linearity/additiveness of perturbations Aviation NOx relatively efficient in producing ozone Shipping causes relatively largest methane perturbation Preliminary estimate of plume conversions: reduction by about 20 % of the ozone perturbation by aviation Road traffic and ship emissions have relatively important contribution to nitrogen deposition, concentrated in specific regions such as western Europe, east coast US

  15. Spare slides follow

  16. Discussion needed by A3 A2 – effective emissions A1 – future scenarios, mitigation options A5 – use of model output

  17. Background Transport TM4 Ozone July (monthly mean zonal mean 2003) Road Ships Aircraft

  18. Aircraft Ships Road traffic All NOy-deposition TM4 Dry pTOMCAT TM4 Wet pTOMCAT

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