AIM: What are “Swing States” and why will the be important in the upcoming Presidential Election?

1. AIM: What are “Swing States” and why will the be important in the upcoming Presidential Election? DO NOW: WRITE DOWN THE DEFINITION OF A “SWING STATE” SWING STATE – A state , which polls show, is not committedto any particular candidate. In the coming Presidential Election, depending on who the majority of the population of this state votes for The winning candidate takes ALL of the states electoral votes.

2. The Swing State Game • You will be assigned in to groups. Each groups will be acting as a political advisor to an unnamed presidential candidate. • You will read information on different “Swing States” then decide as a group which issues your candidate should talk about in that state. • If your group guesses right – YOUR CANDIDATE WILL GET ALL THE ELECTORAL VOTES. • THE GROUP WITH THE MOST ELECTORAL VOTES WINS THE GAME !!!!!!!

3. IOWA Electoral votes: 7

4. IOWA Electoral votes: 7 The economy is likely to be the major issue. Iowa is showing signs of recovery after the recession in 2001, and the jobless rate is below the national average, and down from a year ago. But one of the main industries, farming, has undergone a big shift, and the state that produces the most corn, soybeans, pork and eggs is seeing many family farms unable to survive. • Do you: • Talk about the war in Iraq? • Talk about unemployment? • Talk about tax breaks for farmers? • Talk about the economy? ANSWER

5. Nevada Electoral votes: 5

6. Nevada Electoral votes: 5 The state has done well economically, and the jobless rate is below the national average. Polls show three-quarters of the state's residents oppose plans to bury the country's nuclear waste in Yucca Mountain, about 160 kilometers north of Las Vegas. • If you are John Kerry you should… • Talk about unemployment? • Talk about nuclear waste disposal? • Talk about tax breaks for farmers? • Talk about the economy? ANSWER

7. Wisconsin Electoral votes: 10

8. Employment is a major issue in the state. The state was hard-hit by the downturn in the manufacturing sector, but the jobless rate is back down to where it was four years ago, but many are lower-paying, no-benefit jobs. Residents are waiting to see if these jobs are a sign of solid economic recovery. Residents of the state are growing more uncertain about the U.S.'s role in Iraq. Wisconsin, like most states, has had its share of injured soldiers and bodies returning from Iraq, and people are starting to question whether the risk has been worth the reward. ANSWER • What should candidate John Kerry talk about? • Talk about the environment. • Talk about nuclear waste disposal. • Talk about tax breaks for the rich. • Talk about the war in Iraq. Wisconsin Electoral votes: 10

9. New Mexico Electoral votes 5

10. New Mexico Electoral votes: 5 Although traditional base in the state, mainly white oil ranchers, at 43 per cent, the state's Hispanic population is larger than any other state's. Most of these families have been there for generations. They tend to be Roman Catholics and lean toward toward opposition to abortion, and so-called family values ANSWER • Do you: • Talk about the environment? • Run TV ads in Spanish? • Talk about tax breaks for the rich? • Talk about the war in Iraq?

11. New Hampshire Electoral votes: 4

12. New Hampshire Electoral votes: 4 The state is doing well economically, with unemployment just 3.9 per cent, and population and housing prices on the upswing. A New York Times/CBS News poll suggests that more than 40 per cent of state residents say war and terrorism are the most important issues. ANSWER • If you are George Bush you should… • Talk about the war in Iraq? • Run TV ads in Spanish? • Talk about the economy? • Talk about the environment

13. OhioElectoral votes: 20

14. OhioElectoral votes: 20 The state has lost more than 170,000 factory jobs since 2000, about one of every six jobs in the state. Bush's decision to eliminate steel import tariffs has caused a lot of anger in this heavy-industry economy. Many also are beginning to question the U.S. involvement in Iraq. Although many supported the war initially, the state houses one of the biggest air force bases in the country, and many have relatives serving in Iraq, with no clear end in sight. ANSWER • If you are John Kerry you should… • Talk about unemployment? • Talk about tax breaks for farmers? • Talk about the environment • Run TV ads in Spanish?

15. Pennsylvania Electoral votes: 21

16. Pennsylvania Electoral votes: 21 The economy issue is a balancing act: the wealthier voters don't want more taxes, but there are also many less well off people who have lost jobs since Bush won in 2000. ANSWER • If you are George W. Bush you should… • Talk about unemployment. • Talk about tax cuts he has given. • Talk about the environment • Talk about nuclear waste disposal.

17. Michigan Electoral votes: 17

18. Michigan Electoral votes: 17 This is another state hard hit by declines in the manufacturing sector. About 200,000 manufacturing jobs have been lost here since the 2000 election. The unemployment rate has gone as high as seven per cent in the last few years. ANSWER • If you are John Kerry you should… • Talk about the war in Iraq. • Talk about tax breaks for farmers? • Talk about the environment • Talk about unemployment

19. Minnesota Electoral votes: 10

20. Minnesota Electoral votes:10 The economy has remained fairly stable here because it has been diverse enough to survive the downturn in the manufacturing and blue-collar job sectors. In the "Iron Range" up north, Bush's decision to remove steel import tariffs caused anger, but state moves to cut social programs and not raise taxes have been popular. ANSWER • If you are George W. Bush you should… • Talk about the economy. • Talk about tax breaks for farmers. • Talk about the environment • Talk about the Iraq.

21. Missouri Electoral votes: 11

22. Missouri Electoral votes: 11 The rebounding economy has brought more jobs to this state. The state legislature has put an amendment banning gay marriage on the ballot for November, hoping to lure more social conservatives to the polls., ANSWER • Should your candidate stress that he is… • Against an amendment banning gay marriage • Against tax breaks for farmers? • For amendment banning gay marriage • Against tax breaks for farmers?

23. Arkansas Electoral votes: 6

24. Arkansas Electoral votes: 6 African Americans, who make up more than 12 per cent of the electorate and usually support Democrats, could have something to say this time out, but voter turnout is always an issue. The Iraq war could be an important touchstone here, since Arkansas has sent many National Guard troops (many of them black) to Iraq. ANSWER • If your candidate is John Kerry you should… • Have Kerry give speeches to groups of farmers • Talk about his record on health care. • Work to get a high African American voter turnout. • Run TV ads in Spanish?

25. Oregon Electoral votes: 7

26. Oregon Electoral votes: 7 The state has lost jobs since 2000. Kerry stressed that the tax burden on the middle class had gone up in the last four years, while wealthier Americans benefited from tax cuts. Bush fought back, saying tax increases hurt employers, and eventually, their employees. He also promised $15 million to improve access to Portland's port. ANSWER • If you are George W. Bush you should NOT mention… • Unemployment. • Tax breaks. • Improving Portland’s port. • Taxes on the middle class

27. Florida Electoral votes: 27

28. Florida Electoral votes: 27 The economy is doing well, but a good economy often means voters focus on other issues. The Cuban population is important here, and strongly favors Bush and his support of the embargo on Cuba. But his recent move to restrict the flow of money and travelers to Cuba has not been popular. Another big issue is prescription drug access, important to the many seniors in the state • If you are John Kerry you should… • Talk about the economy? • Talk about tax breaks for farmers? • Talk about the environment • Talk about allowing cheaper prescription drugs in from Canada ANSWER

29. Arizona Electoral votes: 10

30. Arizona Electoral votes: 10 The economy is doing well, and many people with economic ties to Mexico are thankful for freer trade. But the war in Iraq may be a liability in a state with so many army bases. ANSWER • If you are George W. Bush you should • Talk about unemployment. • Talk about the free trade agreement with Mexico • Talk about the environment • Talk about the war in Iraq?

31. Washington Electoral votes: 11

32. Washington Electoral votes: 11 Economically, the state is stabilizing after a downturn in jobs. This high-tech state of independent thinkers is difficult to pigeonhole. Its coastal cities are definitely more liberal, and home to a strong anti-globalization movement. But further east are more conservative voters, who could make the difference if they show up in greater numbers on Nov. 2. • You could help John Kerry get elected if you • Concentrate on getting out the vote in the coastal cities • Concentrate on getting out the vote in eastern part of the state? • Get more farmers to vote? • Run TV ads in Spanish? ANSWER