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What Happened

What Happened. The Election of 2010. Clearly Stated Learning Objectives. Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process Analyze the theories of why people vote and apply them to the 2010 Election. Assess the upcoming 2012 Presidential Elections.

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What Happened

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  1. What Happened The Election of 2010

  2. Clearly Stated Learning Objectives • Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process • Analyze the theories of why people vote and apply them to the 2010 Election. • Assess the upcoming 2012 Presidential Elections.

  3. What comes around, goes around? 2010 Part 2

  4. The House Results • GOP Gets • 100% of leaning GOP Seats (29) • 30 of 42 Tossups • 6 “safe/leaning” Democratic seats

  5. The Senate Results • No Decapitation of Reid • No Biden Seat • The Democrats Hold

  6. Homeostasis • Government tends to disappoint • We move back to correct parties that go too far • Exposure

  7. The Nationalized Election • National factors trumped local factors for the third time • This time around, these factors favored the GOP • This Hurts Incumbents

  8. Issues and 2010

  9. The Most Important Issue of 2008 • Obama misread the 2008 electorate • The Most important issue of 2008 went unresolved

  10. The Issues of 2010

  11. The Primary Issue The economy

  12. A Referendum on the Economy

  13. Unemployment

  14. Who is to Blame?

  15. Debt and Stimulus

  16. The National Debt on Election Day 2008

  17. The National Debt on 11/2/2010

  18. Budget Deficits and Record Spending • 2009 Budget Deficit was over 1.4 Trillion • 2010 at 1.3 Trillion

  19. Voters wanted deficit reduction

  20. The Stimulus Package • Success • Potentially Staved off a second depression • Problems • High Price Tag • Did not meet expectations

  21. Voters are Split on its Effectiveness

  22. The Health Care Law

  23. Opinion Remains Divided

  24. The Man and His Policies A Referendum on President Obama

  25. President Obama’s Popularity

  26. On Election Day: A Referendum

  27. On Election Day: The Policy Dichotomy

  28. The X factor in 2010 The Tea Party

  29. The Tea Party Movement • Unique in that they do not want anything from government • Also no Formal/ Hierarchical organization • Very Motivated

  30. The Tea Party was unified in its Anger at Government

  31. The Tea Party Tapped into Angry Voters

  32. The Tea party was a Popular Movement

  33. With Motivated Voters on Election Day

  34. The Results The senate

  35. Policy 2010-2012

  36. Fillibusters from the Minority Party Unwillingness to pass House bills from the Majority Party. A lack of moderates to broker deals Senate Gridlock is Likely

  37. Policy In the House • The GOP has majority, but it will not be easy • Integrating the Tea Party • Facing an ideologically homogenous Democratic Party

  38. What Not To Expect • Climate Change Legislation • Comprehensive Immigration Reform

  39. What Not To Expect: Social Security Reform • The Trust Fund will be exhausted in 2037 • Benefits will be cut by 22% at that time

  40. Not Going to Happen Through Congress Repealing Health Care

  41. “We will immediately take action to repeal this law.”Republican “Pledge To America”

  42. H.R. 2: Repealing the Job-Killing Health Care Law Act

  43. S.AMDT 13

  44. The Electoral College (Obama won)

  45. The Nature and legitimacy of the Campaign • A relatively mild campaign • An election without a question of legitimacy

  46. The Electoral College Results • The National Popular vote remains irrelevant • 270 Electoral Votes remains the Goal

  47. The Final Tally

  48. The Electoral College • 51 separate elections • Article II, Section I allows the states to decide how they choose their electors • How the states decide

  49. Campaign Strategy under the Electoral College • Race for Electoral Votes • Not a race for Popular votes • Draw the map and stick to it

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