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H. Behrendt , M. Grossmann, H. Gömann, U. Mischke, A. Schöll, J. Steidl

GLOWA-Elbe GLOWA Status conference 19 May 2005 Cologne. Linkages of quantification tools for the estimation of costs – ecological state relationships in the surface waters of the Elbe catchment. H. Behrendt , M. Grossmann, H. Gömann, U. Mischke, A. Schöll, J. Steidl.

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H. Behrendt , M. Grossmann, H. Gömann, U. Mischke, A. Schöll, J. Steidl

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  1. GLOWA-ElbeGLOWA Status conference 19 May 2005 Cologne Linkages of quantification tools for the estimation of costs – ecological state relationships in the surface waters of the Elbe catchment H. Behrendt, M. Grossmann, H. Gömann, U. Mischke, A. Schöll, J. Steidl Tasks of the Working Package Results of Phase I Concept of Phase II Conclusions

  2. VH I: Integration und -coordination Integrative Methodological Approach GLOWA-Elbe (IMA) Project advisory board VH II: Regionalisation of Global Change Frame of Development GlobalChange VH III: Conflict field Surface Water Availability VH IV: Conflict field Surface Water Quality Management-options Run off regulation Nutrient entry Management level Eco-hydrological Indicators Socioeconomic Indicators Eco-hydrological Indicators Socioeconomic Indicators Impact- analysis Multi-criteria analysis Cost-efficiency analysis Evaluation VH V: Cross conflict field scenario analysis Regional actors, decision bodies

  3. Precipitation Temperature R A U M I S Connections of people WWTP technologies • due to climate changes and • socio-economic development and Ecological state of the water bodies of the Elbe and coastal zone • environmental targets (e.g.WFD) Tasks Development of a system of models, for scenario calcula-tions of possible changes of nutrient concentrations and ecological state in the Elbe:

  4. Results phase I: Establishment of a harmonized database for the modeling of nutrient emissions into the total Elbe catchment Begin of cooperation with Czech institutions (e.g. boundaries of Czech subcatchments, unified soil loss map, tile drained areas, statistical data)

  5. Long term changes of P-concentrations at Zollenspieker • Model calculations for different time periods in the past Diffuse P emissions in the Elbe Basin Estimation of the nutrient emissions into the total Elbe catchment: • Applicability of the model for areas outside Germany • Estimation of nutrient emissions for 184 subcatchments in the Elbe

  6. Scenario calculations on regional changes of discharge and nitrogen emissions for 2025 Changes of nutrient emissions due to climate • Use of precipitation and discharges of WATERGAP 4 for two different climate models • Depending on the used climate model the N emissions can increase or decrease up to 15%

  7. Changes of nutrient emissions due to changes of global climate and regional human activities The changes due to climate changes are probably low The socio-economic changes in the past influenced strongly the nitrogen emissions

  8. The maximum potential for the reduction of N-emissions is about 1/3 compared to 1999 Interactions between agricultural activities and nitrogen emissions Only the introduction of a strong N-tax leads to a substantial reduction of N-emissions from agricultural areas.

  9. Human activities Climate changes GOWA-Elbe Phase II Ecological consequences Nutrient loads Costs Find solutions which have large ecological effects with a optimum of costs

  10. Linkage between nutrient loads and ecological state of the river Classification of phytoplankton in rivers Tool for the modeling: QSIM

  11. Classes and linkage between phosphorus and phytoplankton in rivers Classes and linkage between nitrogen/phosphorus and ecological state of the coastal zone?

  12. Linkage between human activities and nutrient loads Activities in urban area Agricultural activities Measures for sewers / WWTP / connection of people central versus decentral RAUMIS / SWIM

  13. Measure x Measure Y Costs (€/a) Degree of application Catchment 1 Catchment 2 N taxe Reduction of N / P load (t/a) Cost – efficient combination of measure? - Scenarios - Bio-economic model Min! (Costs * Degree of application) random condition N / P reduction targetsl Bufferstrips Increasing costs Costs and effects

  14. Conclusions • A harmonized database for the total Elbe for the diffuse sources of nutrient entries exists. An enlargement for point sources is needed for the calculation of individual measures. • The combination of the model MONERIS with the models RAUMIS and SWIM is realised for the study of agricultural and climate influences on the nutrient emissions and loads. • This set of models have to be enlarged by bio-economic and ecosystem models to estimate the costs of different ecological states of the water bodies • Beside the emissions the retention processes determine the nutrient concentrations and ecological state of the water bodies. Measures for changes of retention have to be studied especially for lakes and wetlands. • Average changes of climate are compared to human activities of minor importance for the nutrient emissions. But what is the sensitivity of biological indicators and which changes can be expected for extreme changes?

  15. WWW.GLOWA-Elbe.de Thank You For Your Attention!

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