NCEP’s Views on NOAA Climate Services

1. NCEP’s Views on NOAA Climate Services Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director, National Centers for Environmental Prediction “Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin” January 4, 2006

2. Overview • Background • Concept of Operations – Service Delivery • Implications for Model Guidance • Multi-model Ensemble • “Best Blend” of models • Reanalysis • Implications for the Transition Process • Climate Test Bed (CTB)

3. Background • Many changes at NCEP over past 6 years • CPC reorg: ~100%+ increase in service/product suites, including forecasts of extreme events • EMC reorg: climate/weather linkage solidified for global model implementation by following a “unified” model* approach • CTB formed: resources reallocated within NCEP and OGP • Climate Forecast System (CFS) implemented ahead of schedule; computer resources secured • Recent CPC/Penn State Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop • Enthusiastic community response to CFS and CTB – want increased access to both in real time • Reaffirmed requirement for a minimum 30-year hindcast/verification period for model calibration * “Unified” model implies climate/weather linkage

4. Concept of Operations: Service Delivery • Seamless Suite of products with collaborative NWS Field input, designed to meet user needs and meet GPRA goals • Products spanning global - national - regional spatial scales and day-3 Hazards-to-Seasonal-Inter-annual time scales • Climate/Weather linkage addressing hydrology (drought, floods,…), 3-14-day extreme T, P, wind, wave, events and an increased focus on climate-related extreme events • Real-time- and Re-analysis-based verification to drive the Best Blend of models • Aggressively seek the optimum relative contribution of Best Blend and forecaster-modified product inputs • All products address uncertainty • Capability to train at national and international levels

5. Concept of Operations: CPC Specific Product Range • 6-10 day and 8-14 day forecasts • Updated 7 days a week • Best Blend of models with forecaster-modified option • Based on North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) and statistical post-processing • Makes-available a wide range of simple-to-complex probabilistic forecast products • Includes forecasts for extremes (temperature, rainfall, drought conditions, fire weather, storms,…) • Enhanced links to federal agencies (Agriculture, Energy, State, …)

6. Concept of Operations: CPC Specific Product Range • Seasonal Forecast • Based on a Best Blend of dynamical models and statistical approaches • Increasing use of CFS • Aggressively seek the optimum relative contribution of Best Blend and forecaster-modified product inputs • Currently updated monthly. Goal is weekly with option for episodic updates (climate nowcasts).

7. Implications for Models, EMC and NCO • Multi-model Ensemble approach • For SI – initially work toward a “Best Blend” of CFS/GFDL ensembles, requires a 30- year hindcast skill history for model inclusion; work toward including other climate prediction systems • For Medium Range – NAEFS, a U.S. – Canadian effort to leverage model resources, also uses Best Blend concept • SI requires “Tier-1” coupling (atmosphere, ocean, land, cryosphere) • Climate/weather linkage • Include “weather” model components where possible in the CFS, with the goal of a single atmospheric model for weather and climate • Increasing importance of model(s) calibration using 30-year hindcast/verification periods (Reanalysis required) • Increasing emphasis on Ensemble post-processing (bias removal; product generation) • A “Best Blend” approach, using Reanalysis-based hindcast skill will be used to combine models

8. Implications for Transition Process • Model development and implementations based on community approach with increasing reliance on modeling “frameworks” and standards. • Product development for enhanced services: • Expert Assessments of current and possible future climate • New extreme event forecasts, based on model ensembles, including drought/flood, temperature extremes, storminess. • Connecting the larger research community to the operational functions • This community-based transition activity has implications for EMC, NCO and CTB

9. NCEP’s Role in the Model Transition Process EMC and NCO have critical roles in the transition from NOAA R&D to operations Other Agencies & International Effort Service Centers Field Offices EMC NOAA Research NCO EMC Observation System Life cycle Support Service Centers User OPS Test Beds JCSDA CTB WRF DTC JHT Operations R&D Delivery Transition from Research to Operations Launch List – Model Implementation Process Concept of Operations Requirements Criteria Forecast benefits, Efficiency, IT Compatibility, Sustainability

10. NOAA Research and Development Funnel • NOAA is working on: • Research to Operations Policy (complete) • An overarching view of NOAA's research and development that provides criteria for research location • A better understanding of how to apportion resource allocations • Operational and life-cycle support for research items transitioned to operations is required and needs to be addressed

11. Applying the “Funnel” to the Transition Process 1. Large “volume” of R&D, funded through AOs, Agency Labs… 2. Smaller set of R&D products suitable for operations. 3. Systematic transition steps Research-to-Operations (R2O). Deliver skill-optimized forecasts, founded on CTB-based innovation, on- going Re-analysis, CFS, multi-model ensembles and user-feedback. 4. Systematic transition steps Operations-to-Applications (O2A). 5. Delivery of products to the diverse USER community 2 R2O NCEP is uniquely positioned to provide an operational infra-structure for the transition process N C E P 1 R&D Community CTB CPC C F S E M C 3 OPERATIONS 4 O2A User Community 5 11

12. Issues • Transition costs have been, and still are, under- resourced • Within an era of constant or diminishing dollars, R&D and transition needs will likely be competing with each other. R&D R&D R&D Transition Transition Transition Now  Future?  Future?

13. Summary • NCEP is an operational “backbone” for Tier-1 coupled model system and reanalysis • NCEP is uniquely positioned to deal with the Research-to-Operations (R2O) transition • Steps have been taken to enhance the Climate Forecast System, predictions and collaborative service delivery – Operations-to-Applications (OTA) and CTB • Ready to work with the Climate Program to address associated resource issues (computers, people, data)

14. Remaining Issues • Multi-model ensembles – computer resources and model access by an expanding user community need to be discussed at NOAA level • Solidifying resource allocations for transition process should be a high priority for NOAA Climate Program • CTB/EMC (computer resources) still under-resourced for all aspects (Infrastructure, Internal, External)