Southeast Asian Ministers of Education Organization

1. Southeast AsianMinisters of EducationOrganization Leading through Learning

3. Member Countries Indonesia (1965) Lao PDR (1965) Malaysia (1965) Philippines (1965) Singapore (1965) Thailand (1965) Cambodia (1971) Brunei Darussalam (1984) Vietnam (1992) Myanmar (1998) Timor-Leste (2006)

4. Associate Members Australia (1973) France (1973) New Zealand (1974) Canada (1988) Germany (1990) Netherlands (1993) Spain (2007) United Kingdom (2013)

5. Affiliate Members International Council for Open and Distance Education (1999) University of Tsukuba (2009) British Council (2010)

6. Vision The leading organization for enhancing regional understanding and cooperation in education, science and culture for a better quality of life in Southeast Asia Mission To enhance regional understanding, cooperation and unity of purpose among Member Countries for a better quality of life through • the establishment of networks and partnerships, • the provision of fora among policy makers and experts, and • the promotion of sustainable human resource development

8. Futures, Foresight and the Development of Education in Southeast Asia Dr Witaya Jeradechakul Director, SEAMEO SecretariatBangkok, Thailand witaya@seameo.orgsecretariat@seameo.org

9. Imagine the Future https://alumni.tsukuba.ac.jp/

10. The Futures • Not just the Future but Futures • Futurists can not predict the future. No one can. A prediction is intended to be true and accurate statement. But we all can forecast futures. A forecast is intended to be logical and useful statement about the futures. • Futures studies help institutions and individuals envision, design, and move towards preferred futures rather than passively accepting whatever “will be”. • But to be effective the process of forecasting and envisioning must be done continuously and not just a one-shot activity

11. The Futures and Time Horizon • But when is the present, when does the future begin? • Most people are only interested in “now”. • Some planners and policy-makers may be interested in the next five, ten, or maybe 15 years. • Futurists begin to take interest from between 20 to 50—maybe 100—years from now. • Beyond 100 years is speculation, imagination and fiction.

12. The Futures and Time Horizon DEGREE OF PARTICIPATION futures research planning TIMELINE AND DEGREE OF FLUX administration MAGNITUDE OF INTENDED ACTIONS James Dator, University of Hawaii

13. Plausible versus Preferred Futures Plausible Futures Preferred Futures What might happen: trends forecasts, scenarios We need to understand this • Values, mission, vision, • Goals, strategies, actions • Dreams and imagination • We need to create this

14. Impact and Uncertainty high impact Potential Drivers high impact, high uncertainty Drivers high impact, low uncertainty low uncertainty high uncertainty Background Trends low uncertainty, low impact Inconsequential high uncertainty, low impact low impact

15. What is Foresight • Systematic attempts to look into the future (of science, society, economy – and their interactions) in order to promote social, environmental and economic benefit • Foresight study is a process of anticipating and managing changes

16. Key Elements of Foresight Study • Structured Anticipation • Interactive and Participative • Methods • New networks • Strategic Visioning • For present day decision and action • Social Benefits and Disbenefits

17. Why Foresight is Important • Globalization • Constraints on government spending • Change in management and industrial production • Changes in the structure of and demand for knowledge production • Increasing uncertainties for the future

18. Framework of Foresight Inputs Strategic scanning of environment/ Delphi • Emerging issues/ trends analysis • Systematic thinking/ causal layout • analysis • Scenarios visioning, backcasting, • roadmaps • Foresight process • Analysis • Interpretation • Prospection Outputs Reports, presentations, workshops Multimedia Strategy development and strategic planning Strategy

19. Global picture of Education/ EFA/ MDGs including Issues & Trends Country Priorities, Issues and Challenges on Education + Regional Initiatives on EFA Goals and MDGs First Discussion + Analysis (Global versus Country Issues) Consultations using Foresight and 4 Futures Futures/Preferred/ Worst Case Scenario, etc Pre-2015 versus Post-2015 – What is missing and what are the new targets Gap Analysis Second Discussion + Analysis Delphi Survey (2 rounds) Gap analysis New set of education agenda Presentation of Findings and the Post-2015 Agenda to SEAMEO Education Ministers and other Stakeholders • Selected target groups • Verify the agenda Example used by SEAMEO in developing Post-2015 Education agenda

20. Range of Futures/ Foresight between “Push and Pull” PUSH PULL Foresight about the future of technology aimed at technology .. and priority setting Foresight about the future of technology aimed at identifying technology for economic and social change Foresight about social and economic needs and ways in which these might be solved with the help of Technology Foresight about social and economic needs aimed at identifying ways to alleviate social and economic conditions

21. SEAMEO Consultation and Development of Post-2015 Education Scenarios and Post-EFA Education Agenda in Southeast Asia

22. Development of Post-2015 Education Agenda in Southeast Asia Post-2015 short (2015-2020)& long-term (2015-2035) recommendations to address the 4 future futures guided by the 4 futures but other parameters such as the ASEAN Community, values and cultures Transnational issues ASEAN Community Social and cultural diversity Lifelong learning Public health Drivers of change Emerging Issues & Trends Demographic change Governance Integration and mobility ICT 21st Century skills Economic growth Environment deterioration and sustainability Next step: Determining preferred future 4 Generic Futures of Manoa School Achievements In Education Challenges

23. Development of SEAMEO Strategic Plan (2011-2020) Golden SEAMEO 12 SEAMEO initiatives SEAMEO Congress ”business as usual” scenario knowledge management scenario building Golden SEAMEO scenario SEAMEO College mentoring key success factors strategic validation strategies “live and let die” scenario grouping the initiatives: unique, shared and common

24. Imagine Imagine there's no heavenIt’s easy if you tryNo hell below usAbove us only skyImagine all the people living for todayImagine there's no countriesIt isn’t hard to doNothing to kill or die forAnd no religion tooImagine all the people living life in peaceYou, you may say I’m a dreamer, but I'm not the only oneI hope some day you'll join usAnd the world will be as one

25. Imagine Imagine no possessionsI wonder if you canNo need for greed or hungerA brotherhood of manImagine all the people sharing all the worldYou, you may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only oneI hope some day you'll join usAnd the world will live as one http://www.bretlsimmons.com/2011-07/leadership-foresight/

26. Thank you very much. Futures, Foresight and the Development of Education in Southeast Asia Dr Witaya Jeradechakul Director, SEAMEO SecretariatBangkok, Thailand witaya@seameo.orgsecretariat@seameo.org