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The Parkfield Experiment

The Parkfield Experiment. Failure or Success?. Parkfield M 6.0 earthquake. Tuesday, September 28, 2004 10:15 am local time Preceded by a M5.9 quake On the San Andreas Fault. Parkfield. San Andreas at Parkfield. Juncture of the creeping and locked sections of the San Andreas Fault.

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The Parkfield Experiment

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  1. The Parkfield Experiment Failure or Success?

  2. Parkfield M 6.0 earthquake • Tuesday, September 28, 2004 • 10:15 am local time • Preceded by a M5.9 quake • On the San Andreas Fault

  3. Parkfield San Andreas at Parkfield • Juncture of the creeping and locked sections of the San Andreas Fault Earthquakes in 1980

  4. Historical Seismicity • The wave forms of 1922, 1934 and 1966 quakes were very similar • The next significant earthquake was supposed to happen 1988-1993

  5. Characteristic Earthquake • Each fault segment may rupture episodically with characteristic rupture area and recurrence interval

  6. 1857 rupture

  7. Seismic Gap hypothesis • The next segment to rupture will be the one that hasn’t in a while.

  8. Creepmeters at Parkfield site • Coseismic offset

  9. Strain gauges at Parkfield site • Coseismic distortion

  10. SAFOD: San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth http://www.icdp-online.de/sites/sanandreas/news/news.html

  11. 2004: the experiment is a success • The earthquake recurrence is every 22- 35 years. • From SAFOD: • Parkfield, the self-proclaimed earthquake capital of the world, was the location of a Magnitude 6 earthquake at 10:15am today. The epicenter was 15 miles south of the drill site on the San Andreas fault at a depth of 7.9 km. The drill site was subjected to fairly intense shaking but nobody was hurt and no significant damage was sustained. Scientists are thrilled to have witnessed "the Big One" and we anticipate a wealth of data associated with this event.

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