Decision Support Services at WFO Fort Worth, TX Bill Bunting, MIC Decision Support Symposium

1. Decision Support Services at WFO Fort Worth, TX Bill Bunting, MIC Decision Support Symposium Amarillo, TX November 4th, 2009

2. Goals • Increase the situation awareness (SA) of local decision makers by providing a frequently-updated stream of expertise, delivered through multiple channels • Increase the internal SA of WFO staff through early notification of an incident and as much ground truth as possible.

3. Definition of Situation Awareness Customer Services for enhancing SA Internal Methods of enhancing SA during high-impact weather events and other incidents Presentation Topics

4. What is Situation Awareness? • The awareness of a piece of information in the environment (level 1) • A comprehension of it’s meaning (level 2) • A projection of it’s future status (level 3) - Endsley, 1988

5. Another Definition • “Knowing what’s going on, so you can figure out what to do.” - Anonymous

6. WFO Ft Worth Services • Provide local decision makers with the latest and most detailed weather information possible through: • frequent updates (grids, graphicasts, text, NWSChat, paging system, heads-up emails) • live and recorded web briefings • the telephone is still an important tool!

7. Graphical Severe Weather Warnings BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 627 PM CST SAT APR 5 2003 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... PALO PINTO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WESTERN PARKER COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS * UNTIL 730 PM CST * AT 627 PM CST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 18 MILES WEST OF MINERAL WELLS OR 3 MILES EAST OF POSSUM KINGDOM LAKE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. * THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR... MINERAL WELLS AROUND 650 PM CST WEATHERFORD AROUND 715 PM CST IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES, HAIL TO THE SIZE OF SOFTBALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS TO 80 MPH ARE LIKELY. DO NOT LEAVE SHELTER TO USE YOUR CAR TO OUTRUN A TORNADO. CARS ARE EASILY TOSSED AND CRUSHED BY TORNADO WINDS. LAT...LON 3298 9845 3280 9847 3270 9772 3297 9770 • Project began in 2003 in collaboration with NCTCOG • Goal: Insight into population characteristics in storm’s path • Useful for Call-To-Action statement selection • Warning polygon decoded and used to query Census database • Output available via NWS Fort Worth and NCTCOG Internet sites

8. Graphical Severe Weather Warning Process Warning Files Radar Data Files National Weather Service NCTCOG GIS/Demographic Data Geo-Spatial-Enabled Warning • Live Radar Data • Severe Storm Expertise • Storm Spotter Network • Centralized GIS Data • Demographics • Application Development • EM Coordination

9. The Result • Warning polygon • threat area displayed • with radar image • Demographic analysis • of population at risk • Breakdown by city or • town beneath graphic • Radar image updated • with each new scan

12. Feedback from Emergency Managers • “It's like having you and your team of  experts standing right with us.  Your credibility is never questioned when we can show the hazards approaching using a BlackBerry or other PDA.” • “We used the graphical warning when making the decision to sound the sirens during the February 10 storm. We also captured screen shots of the graphical warning page to include in our "event" file for the day.” • “When questioned by elected officials as to why the sirens were sounded when the damages were in the city immediately adjacent to us, the picture and data really told the story.” • “The best thing about it for me is putting as much simplified info on the page with the map as possible and I think you have that down pretty well.”

13. Tornado Damage Simulations • May 3rd, 1999 Oklahoma Outbreak track shapefiles used as reference • Several simulations done to compare impacts • Results published in Rae and Stefkovich, 2000 • Useful in exercises

14. One Scenario: Downtown Fort Worth • Residents: 51,300 • Employees: 64,600 • Structures: 23,000 • Structure Value: $4.2 Bill. • Damages: $2.6 Bil. • Hourly Traffic: 169,000 • Normal Volume: 1,700

15. Adding demographic information to warning decision process

16. Census Block Data

17. Mobile Home Parks

18. Single and Multi-Family Residential

19. weather.gov/fortworth

20. North Texas Hazard Planner

21. Hazard Planner • County-based quick overview of threats • Click on threat color displays North TX map • GFE-based assembly • SPC probabilities for hail, tornado, and wind adjusted as needed based on local expectations • Updated at least twice daily

22. Emergency Response Meteorologist Program • Program developed after 9/11 • Initial Training in November, 2002 • Training Topics included: • ICS Overview • CAMEO/ALOHA Training • Plume Dispersion Characteristics • Emergency Responder Information Needs • How to Conduct Responder Briefings

23. ERMET Support • Shuttle Columbia Disaster - 2003 • Fort Worth chemical plant explosion/fire – 2005 • Controlled demolition of multi-story building in downtown Ft Worth – 2006 • Dallas acetylene plant multiple explosions and fire – 2007 • Many wildfires, especially 2005-2006 • Texas Motor Speedway Races • 2010 NBA All-Star Game • 2011 Super Bowl

24. Shuttle Columbia Support 2/1/2003 • Phone briefings for forecasts affecting debris recovery • Meteorologist deployed at Palestine command post for three weeks • Civil Emergency Message issued at DEM request due to debris danger • Media interviews immediately after disaster • Special upper air sounding

25. Geotargeted Alerting System (GTAS) • Project began Summer, 2009 • Partnership between NOAA/NWS, DHS/FEMA, and City of Dallas EM • Uses Internet for interactive collaboration and public warning decisions

26. Internal Tools • SA Display • Incident Notification Systems • Public Safety Audio

27. Situation Awareness Display • Monitors 4 local TV stations • AWIPS Display • Office LAN • Internet sources (traffic cams, external web pages) • Monitored 24/7

28. Incident Notification • www.incidentpage.net • Subscription Service costs $8/month • City Notification Services (Ft Worth, Dallas, others?) • Live public safety audio (scanners or Internet) • Recent messages received by FWD: • Dallas| Hazmat| 453.875| 5743 Marquita|HM 3 enrt to assist EN 17 O/S with unknown chemicals leaking from trash truck| 16:38 • Irving| 3 Alarm Fire| IFD FGD 2| 412 W 6th|U/D: Bn 1 has fire showing thru roof req a 3rd alarm.| 13:40

29. Public Safety Audio • www.radioreference.com • Good for following developing events (hazmat, fires, etc.) • Helps assess impacts from heavy rain/wintry precipitation • Internet allows for remote monitoring

30. Summary • NWS Fort Worth forecasters use a number of tools to increase weather SA for emergency managers, first responders, elected officials and others • Several methods are also used to keep us informed of events across North Texas for which weather information is critical to response • We need to continue to better understand responder information needs and decision thresholds

31. Thank You! Bill Bunting Meteorologist-In-Charge National Weather Service Fort Worth, TX (817) 831-1157 William.Bunting@noaa.gov