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PC18 High DG CA Study Results

This study explores the effects of increased levels of distributed generation (DG), particularly PV, in California. It assesses impacts on energy dispatch, stress indicators on the supply system, and the management of supply variability. Key questions include managing supply variability, utilizing additional DG, and impacts on transmission flows and congestion. The study assumes increased DG projections by relaxing NEM caps and aspiring to achieve solar PV cost reductions.

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PC18 High DG CA Study Results

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  1. PC18 High DG CA Study Results July 23, 2015 Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  2. PC18 High DG CA This study examines higher levels of distributed generation (DG) throughout California (Particularly PV). Noting the impacts on west-wide energy dispatch and indicators of stress on the supply system. *Note in this study analysis DG refers to small scale solar PV or “rooftop solar” for individual retail customers Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  3. Overview • Assumptions • E3 Assumptions • Geographic Variations • Capacity Added for Study • Results • Production Cost Model • Dump Energy • Path Flows • Scope • Key Questions Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  4. Key questions • How is this increased supply variability and ramping managed? • What is the ability to utilize the additional added DG? (i.e. over-generation, dump or curtailment) • Impacts on transmission flows and congestion throughout the regions and on the ties. Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  5. Assumptions • This framework ignores the potential for market-driven DG • Geographic variations in PV cost and policy • State-specific PV costs • State-specific net metering policy • Capacity factors at a BA level • Utility-specific retail rates • *See attached slides for all of the assumptions Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  6. Overview of Assumptions • High DG projections are developed by relaxing existing NEM caps and assuming achievement of aspirational solar PV cost reductions Assumption Reference Case High DG Case Net Metering Caps • Current Policy • Current NEM caps remain in place • California cap lifted after 2016 • NEM Caps Removed • All NEM caps lifted • Limits associated with interconnection potential enforced Solar PV Cost Trends • Moderate Reductions • Cost trajectory derived by E3 for TEPPC planning studies • Aspirational Reductions • Sunshot goals achieved by 2020

  7. 2024 High DG Projections • California Capacity: 12,232 MW

  8. Generation Change Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  9. Changes in Total Annual Generation Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  10. Generation Change By State Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  11. Generation Change by Subregion Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  12. Annual Energy, Production Cost and CO2

  13. Dump Energy Analysis (placeholder) Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  14. Path Utilization– Most Heavily Utilized Paths • “Most Heavily Utilized” = A path that meets any one of the following criterion (10-year plan utilization screening): • U75 > 50% • U90 > 20% • U99 > 5% • Uxx = % of year that flow is greater than xx% of the path limit Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  15. Path Utilization Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  16. Path Utilization Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  17. Path Flow – P45 Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  18. Path Flow – P61 Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  19. Path Flow – P52 Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  20. Path Flow – P83 Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  21. Results – Changes in Transmission Utilization Most Heavily Utilized Paths P01 Alberta-British Columbia P03 Northwest-British Columbia P08 Montana to Northwest P11 West of Crossover P10 West of Colstrip P65 PDCI *NEW* P66 COI *NEW* P16 Idaho-Sierra *NEW* P29 Intermountain-Gonder P27 IPP DC Line P60 Inyo-Control P26 Northern-Southern California P47 – Southern New Mexico P45 SDG&E-CFE Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  22. Questions Western Electricity Coordinating Council

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