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Study Results Drought Scenario Study

Study Results Drought Scenario Study. This slide deck contains results from the 2011 TEPPC Study Program. This study shows the impact in the interconection of increased thermal plant forced outages and decreased hydro caused by drought conditions. 2022 PC7 WGA Drought Study.

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Study Results Drought Scenario Study

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  1. Study ResultsDrought Scenario Study This slide deck contains results from the 2011 TEPPC Study Program. This study shows the impact in the interconection of increased thermal plant forced outages and decreased hydro caused by drought conditions.

  2. 2022 PC7 WGA Drought Study • Central Question: What impact do changes in thermal plant operation and hydro generation availability have on transmission utilization, production cost, and the ability of the Western Interconnection to continue serving its load obligation? • Change to starting input assumptions: • Loads – Peak demand increased to reflect higher temperatures in drought year (inputs provided by NREL) • Transmission System – None • Generation – Low hydro (2001) data used; increased thermal plant forced outages modeled (inputs provided by Argonne National Laboratory) • Results follow…

  3. Drought Condition Selected for Study • 1977 western drought • Selected due to severity and coincidence within multiple basins • Defined by USGS HUC-2 Basin flows Presented by Chris Harto (ANL) on Nov 15 DWG call

  4. Modeling of Hydro Generation Hydroelectric Generation : Same as TEPPC low flow hydro case (2001) • Differences: • Slight overestimation of impact to Pacific NW and CA • Slight underestimation for Great Basin and Lower CO Presented by Chris Harto on Nov 15 DWG call

  5. Impact of Drought on Thermal Plants • “At-risk” thermal plants identified based on their dependence upon surface water for cooling • Impacted plants identified in sub-basins where flow under drought was less than 50% of normal flow • List of impacted plants in WECC will not be reported since no plant-specific analysis of drought mitigation plans was conducted • Impact to “at-risk” plants modeled as increased forced outage rates

  6. Determining Increased Forced Outage Rates (Down Days) • Based on estimate of lost generation • Calculated using EIA data for impacted plants • Lost generation proportional to the loss of flow relative to the minimum of the average basin flow or 2010 water demand • Lost generation was allocated monthly based on deviation from normal flow in that month relative to other months

  7. Overview of Lost Thermoelectric Generation

  8. Monthly Variability in Lost Generation

  9. Modifying Forced Outage Rates • Forced outage rates modified to reflect increased “down days” for all impacted plants within a basin • All impacted plants assumed to be down the same number of days in a given month • Overlap allowed with scheduled maintenance

  10. Impact of Drought on Demand • Developed by NREL • Basis for demand changes: ‘99 California Energy Commission Study titled High Temperatures & Electricity Demand: An Assessment of Supply Adequacy in California, Trends & Outlook • Study provided an estimate for the change in peak demand for 17 areas in the WSCC for two high temperature scenarios (1-in-5 and 1-in-40 probability)

  11. Peak Load Adjustment Method • Match 17 WSCC areas to 2022 TEPPC load bubbles • Identify hottest month for each load area in 1977 (Drought year) • Increase peak demand for this month only by the 1-in-40 % change value reported for the WSCC area in the CEC study • Monthly energy was increased by ½ of the peak demand change to preserve the demand shape

  12. Peak Load Adjustments Summary 2022 PC1 WECC-Wide Coincident Peak Demand: 172,082 MW 2022 PC7 Adjusted Coincident Peak Demand: 176,080 MW (2.3% inc.)

  13. 2022 WGA Drought – Changes in Total Annual Generation vs. Common Case Only an increase in areas with emergency in the Common Case (CFE, AESO) GWh Low Hydro Results

  14. 2022 WGA Drought – Changes in Total Annual Generation vs. Low Hydro GWh

  15. 2022 WGA Drought – Changes in Generation by State vs. Common Case Low Hydro Results

  16. 2022 WGA Drought – Changes in Generation by State vs. Low Hydro Result of increased forced outages applied to plants in the California water basin Result of increased forced outages applied to plants in the Lower Colorado water basin

  17. 2022 WGA Drought – Changes in Region to Region Transfers

  18. 2022 WGA Drought – Changes in Transmission Utilization Most Heavily Utilized Paths Increases in U90 Relative to Common >5% Case Indicated in Red P01 Alberta-British Columbia P03 Northwest-British Columbia P08 Montana to Northwest P11 West of Crossover P10 West of Colstrip P29 Intermountain-Gonder P27 IPP DC Line P60 Inyo-Control P26 Northern-Southern California P47 – Southern New Mexico P45 SDG&E-CFE

  19. Questions or thoughts on this study?

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