The Global Ocean Observing System and the Southern Ocean

1. The Global Ocean Observing System and the Southern Ocean

3. September 2005 Shepherd et al, Science, 2003

4. THE EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION

5. ZIMBABWE MAIZE YEILD AND EL NIÑO

6. EL NIÑO AND HEALTH RISKS: MALARIA

7. NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO)

8. NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION AFFECTS ZOOPLANKTON (CALANUS)

9. Circum-Antarctic Wave Red = warm; blue = cool; grey = ice edge T = wind stress, stretching and compressing ice extent

10. GOOS, the Global Ocean Observing System is: • A sustained, coordinated international system for gathering data about the oceans and seas of the earth • A system for processing the data to enable the generation of beneficial products and services • The research and development upon which such products and services depend for their improvement

11. Observing the Global Ocean • Sustained observations of the Ocean are required for: • Understanding global change • Predicting climate • Protecting and managing marine ecosystems • Complying with international agreements • Protecting life and property on the coast and at sea • Providing forecasts of its future states for a variety of uses and users.

12. Policy Drivers • Meeting IOC and WMO Resolutions. • Meeting Agenda 21 and WSSD requirements. • Abiding by UNCLOS. • Straddling and Highly Migratory Fish Stocks. • Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS). • UNFCCC (Climate Change). • Biodiversity - Jakarta Mandate • Ramsar - Wetlands • Stockholm - Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) • Regional Conventions (UNEP; OSPAR, etc) • GEOSS and the G8.

13. Operational System Sustained, Routine, User-Driven, End-to-End Products GOOS Analysis, Modelling Data Communications & Management Monitoring

14. Schematic of the vertical stack of observations from satellites to seabed that would be necessary to inform an iAOOS study focused on the present state and future fate of the Arctic perennial sea-ice.

15. The Ten-Year Plan for In-situ Observations 2001 2002 2000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Operational GPS/DORIS Stations 86 86 86 86 86 80 55 Tide Gauges 45 45 40 40 1250 1250 1250 1200 1150 779 810 807 671 1100 Number of buoys 1050 Surface DriftingBuoys 94 99 99 99 83 87 90 Number of moorings 79 79 77 77 Tropical Moored Buoys High resolution and frequently repeated lines occupied 41 41 41 41 36 32 Ships of Opportunity 29 26 26 24 23 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 544 200 310 Argo Floats Number of floats 2000 1000 29 29 29 29 10 1 7 6 2 Reference Stations Number of flux moorings 16 14 150 150 150 120 Moorings with climate sensors 40 Coastal Moorings 0 15 0 0 0 80 Number of flux sites/lines, One inventory per 10 years 38 40 40 40 36 20 18 16 14 32 Ocean Carbon Network 24 820 820 820 760 700 670 Dedicated Ship Time Days at sea (NOAA contribution) 430 250 250 250 250 Product evaluation and feedback loops implemented 9 10 10 3 4 System Evaluation 0 1 1 1 7 6 100 100 99 94 88 44 40 34 30 Total System 77 System % Complete 48 2001 2002 2000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

16. WE CAN NOW OBSERVE THE SEA SURFACE GLOBALLY & SYNOPTICALLY.

17. We have limited ability to observe beneath the surface of the ocean. 6,316 BATHY & TESAC reports collected in real time during December, 2000.

18. Argo will cover the global oceans with 3,000 profiling floats.

19. 2154 Argo floats by 24 Nov 2005

20. Drifting Buoy Programme

21. The Global Sea-level Observing System (GLOSS)

22. Antarctic Peninsula Warming • Annual mean temp increase3 °C in the last 50 years the largest warming in the SH. • Sea ice decrease. • Precipitation increase. • Strong ENSO linkages. • Changes in water masses on the continental shelf. • What are the contributions of natural climate variability and anthropogenic forcing?

23. The link to El Niño Upper Tropospheric Height Anomalies Associated with El Nino Events Rossby Wave connection The PSA signal is less robust than the PNA because of the strength of the Southern Hemisphere westerlies

24. 0.17°C warming between 1950s-80s at 700-1100m depth Double the global Ocean rate; Concentrated in ACC; Matches SH atmosphere; Could influence sea ice Gille, 2002

25. Warming of Weddell Sea WDW Warm Deep Water flowing into and out of the Weddell Sea has warmed by about 0.3C since the mid-1970’s. (Robertson et al., 2002)

26. Atlantic freshwater changes fresher saltier fresher “… suggest links to global warming and possible changes in the hydrologic cycle of the Earth.”

27. Regional change Changes in winter sea ice duration (Parkinson 2002 Ann Glaciol 34, 2002) Antarctic Peninsula region. One of the most rapidly warming regions on the planet

28. Circumpolar distribution of krill Euphausia superba Atkinson et al (2004)

29. Biodiversity Change Declining krill population Increasing salps Atkinson et al, 2004

30. Southern Ocean CO2 (red = sink)

31. ATLANTIC PACIFIC INDIAN Ocean acidification: Fossil CO2 is invading the ocean

32. Southern Ocean Circulation

33. Southern Ocean Observing System Hydrographic Sections Rintoul et al CLIVAR/CliC/SCAR SO Implementation Panel

34. Under-Ice Observing System HAFOS (Fahrbach) Moorings Surface Drifters Under-Ice Floats

35. Thermohaline Circulation links Asia Antarctica

36. Antarctica and the Global Climate System (SCAR) Use: • deep and shallow ice cores, • satellite data, • global and regional coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models • meteorological and oceanic data Assess: • role of ENSO in modulating Antarctic climate; • recent climate variability;; • climate change over the next 100 years; • how climate change in the Antarctic influences conditions elsewhere IPY: • test models and high-low latitude climate links; • carry out a major bi-polar shallow ice drilling programme.

37. GLOBAL OCEAN DATA ASSIMILATION EXPERIMENT GODAE Objective:practical demonstration of real-time, global ocean data assimilation for operational oceanography To apply state-of-the-art ocean models & assimilation methods for: -- short-range open-ocean forecasts -- boundary conditions for coastal forecasts -- initial conditions for climate forecast models To provide global ocean analyses and re-analyses to improve our: -- understanding of the oceans -- assessments of the predictability of ocean systems -- the design & effectiveness of the global ocean observing system The ocean observing system for climate - St Raphael, October 1999

39. For PDF version, google “PRB AON“ Polar Research Board U.S. National Academy of Sciences

40. AON Essential Functions (i.e., essential to all participants)

41. Thank you