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Ch. 7: Public Opinion

Ch. 7: Public Opinion. Introduction In the United States and other democracies, people possess a variety of ways by which they can communicate their opinions to government officials and others.

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Ch. 7: Public Opinion

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  1. Ch. 7: Public Opinion • Introduction • In the United States and other democracies, people possess a variety of ways by which they can communicate their opinions to government officials and others. • In turn, officials recognize the importance of public opinion, and often change policy (or have their positions bolstered) based on public opinion. • Oftentimes public opinion is murkier as opposed to being clear and decisive. • Public opinion can be shaped by policymakers who must respond to public opinion. • That is, government officials do play a role in political socialization, and often shape public opinion on a variety of issues.

  2. Political Socialization pgs.215-219 • Key terms to know: • Political Socialization: • Peer Groups: • Watergate break-in: • Generational Effects: • Opinion leaders: • Media: • Gender gap:

  3. Political Socialization pgs.215-219 • Public opinion is the summation of all individual opinions. In order to understand how public opinion is formed, it is important to understand how individuals form their opinions. • The importance of the family is paramount in the development of individual opinion. • Educational influence on political opinions

  4. Political Socialization pgs.215-219 • Peers and peer group influence • Religious influence • Economic status and occupation appear to influence political views. • Political events • Leaders, both formal and informal also tend to shape the opinions of the public.

  5. Political Socialization pgs.215-219 • Mediaalso plays a significant role in the development of public opinion. • Demographic traits are those traits an individual has little or no control over, yet these traits exert a major influence over the development of one's opinion. Important demographic traits include: • Geographical location • Race • Gender • Age • Marital status

  6. Political Socialization pgs.215-219 • gender gap in the United States

  7. Measuring Public Opinion:pgs. 207-212 • Key Terms: • Opinion polls: • Sampling error:

  8. Measuring Public Opinion:pgs. 207-212

  9. Measuring Public Opinion • As long as there has been representative government, politicians who have been interested in knowing what the public opinion is on each issue. • How can we accurately determine what the public thinks? • As early as 1824 polls were being conducted. • These polls were straw polls

  10. Measuring Public Opinion • Large number of Americans do not believe that polls are an accurate reflection of public opinion. • Sampling Techniques: • How can interviewing fewer than 2K voters tell us what tens of millions of voters will do? • What is necessary ? • Read the analogy about the 10K pennies in a large jar on pg. 207 • Representative Sampling • The Principle of Randomnes • if a poll is based on arandom sampleof a properly defined population the information is accurate within the stated margin of error. • What do we mean by “random”?

  11. Measuring Public Opinion • The Principle of Randomness • Equal chance • The larger the sample of the population, the smaller the margin of error. • If a random sample, with a margin of error of + or - 3%, reveals that 63% of the population favors a reduction in spending for space exploration the actual number of people favoring such a reduction is some where between 60% to 66%.

  12. Measuring Public Opinion • Problems with Polls: • If the margin of error is greater than the difference between two candidates, the poll cannot indicate who is leading at that time. • Polls are only accurate for the time frame when they were conducted. • On an issue in which public opinion changes quickly, the length of time the poll will be accurate will be very short.

  13. Measuring Public Opinion and Political Information • MEASURING PUBLIC OPINION • Polling is a way to measure public opinion, the first poll was developed by George Gallop in 1932. • Polls rely on samples of the population (relatively small proportion who are chose as a representative of the whole)

  14. Measuring Public Opinion and Political Information • Samples usually include about 1500-2000 people can be representative of what pollsters call a universe (the larger group whose opinion is being measured) of potential voters.

  15. Measuring Public Opinion and Political Information • MEASURING PUBLIC OPINION • The key to the accuracy of opinion polls is random sampling which operates on the idea that everyone should have an equal probability of being selected. • Always a risk of sampling errors.

  16. Measuring Public Opinion and Political Information • MEASURING PUBLIC OPINION CONTINUED… • Computer and telephone technology have made surveying less expensive and more commonplace. • Most polls are done through randomdigit dialing in which calls are place to telephone number with randomly chosen exchanges.

  17. Measuring Public Opinion and Political Information • THE ROLL OF POLLS • Supports say they are tools for democracy-allowing policymakers to keep in touch with changing opinions on issues. • Critics say they make politicians more concerned with following rather than leading. • Some say polls weaken democracy because they permit government to “think” that they have taken public opinion into account when only passive (often ill-informed) opinions have been counted.

  18. Measuring Public Opinion • Problems with Polls • Sampling Error • Poll Questions • Push Polls

  19. Polls can be Misleading-some problems with polls • Problems with the wording-what were the exact words used? • Did you have to pay to participate? • Can you control for how many times someone got to respond (internet surveys, over the phone-when they ask YOU to call) • The survey is too long • The survey is looking for snap judgments (yes/no-when more is needed) • The time of day the poll was taken (who is home during the day?) • Current events affect decisions made on each day. “How do you feel about terrorism the day after 9/11”? • Who paid for the poll? • Why is the poll being done? • What area, region, state, or group did you poll? (teachers, doctors, lawyers)

  20. Measuring Public Opinion and Political Information • THE ROLL OF POLLS • Polls can distort the election process by creating a bandwagon effect in which voters may support a candidate only because they see others doing so. • Emphasis on poll results has sometimes drown out the issues of the campaigns. • The election day exit poll is probably the most criticized type of poll. • Polls can be misleading (problems with the wording, you have to pay to participate, survey is too long, survey is looking for snap judgments when more is necessary,

  21. Measuring Public Opinion and Political Information • WHAT POLLS REVEAL ABOUT AMERICAN’S POLITICAL INFORMATION • We have a low level of political knowledge! • Part of the reason our system works is the fact that people DO know what basic values they want upheld even when they don’t know about policy questions or decision makers. • Unfortunately, increased levels of education over the last 4 decades have scarcely raised public knowledge about politics.

  22. Measuring Public Opinion

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