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Priorities for renewable energies and energy efficiency technologies by 2020. Clemens Schneider Research Fellow Research Group Future Energy and Mobility Structures. ETUI conference “Climate Change: An opportunity for social cooperation“ 29-30 March 2011 Hotel Crowne Plaza, Brussels. Contents.
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Priorities for renewable energies and energy efficiency technologies by 2020 Clemens SchneiderResearch Fellow Research Group Future Energy and Mobility Structures ETUI conference “Climate Change:An opportunity for social cooperation“ 29-30 March 2011Hotel Crowne Plaza, Brussels
Contents • 2020: mid-term landmark on the way to a low carbon society • Why dealing with technologies? • Criterions to identify relevant technologies • Technologies of energy supply • Energy efficiency technologies • Buildings • Electricity consumption • Transport • Technologies and cooperation: local action and acceptance • Example “Innovation City Ruhr“: a social laboratory Clemens Schneider
2020:mid-term landmark on the way to a low carbon society • Aims for a 2020 economy: • binding targets for all sectors (radical CO2 cuts)(energy supply, industry, commerce, households, transport) • a more flexible energy supply relying on decentralized structures (on the way to CO2 neutrality) • usage of BAT (= best available technologies) concerning energy efficiency • taking the whole carbon footprint of products into account (“life cycle emissions“) Clemens Schneider
Economic instruments in Climate Policy and “technology neutrality”. So why dealing with technologies? • Economic instruments in Climate Policy and “technology neutrality” • Economic instruments are supposed to be “technology neutral”. • Neo-classical economic theory supposes that most carbon efficient technologies will be used. • BUT there are some limitations: • Deficits in cooperation (large and small groups) • Information barriers • External costs and benefits • Natural monopolies • Markets neglect important options:centralized structures prevail. Clemens Schneider
Using revenues from ETS and green taxation to foster “decentral” technologies • Criterions to identify relevant technologies: • Risks in research and development • Security of supply and price risks • Lead times • Market potentials • Dependance on infrastructures • Cost efficiency • Path dependance • Potential to save energy • Climate protection potential • Value added and employment • Acceptance • Source: Fraunhofer ISI (2010), modified Clemens Schneider
CO2-Abatement potentials and costs Source: IPCC (2007) Clemens Schneider
Low carbon energy supply technologies • Central structures: • Offshore Wind (Atlantic & North Sea) • Water power (Norway) • Concentrated solar power (CSP) • [Coal power plants with Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS)] “Electricity highways“ needed: High Voltage Direct Current (HVCD) to connect Europe‘s • Decentralized structures • Photovoltaics • Onshore Wind • Local heat: Combined heat and power (natural gas or biomass fired) “Smart grids” needed: intelligent demand and supply management to come to grips with volatile feed-in of renewable power Clemens Schneider
Energy supply - the vision 2020:decentralized and flexible on the way to climate neutrality • Combination of central and decentral elements Clemens Schneider
Energy efficiency technologies: demand side potentials Source: Wuppertal Institute (2006) Clemens Schneider
Energy efficiency technologies: buildings • Initial situation • Many actors involved • Low rates of refurbishment (1% in Germany) • In spite of rising energy prices and public co-financing shares of high efficient refurbishment remains low • Cost acceptance of high efficient insulation appeared to be low • The vision 2020 • Local governments, local energy supplier(s) and house owners are implementing long term plans for refurbishment and heat supply of the buildings • Energy efficiency (i.e. mainly insulation) is priorized Clemens Schneider
Energy efficiency technologies: electricity demand • Efficiency potentials when using best available technologies (BAT): • Office equipment: LED (monitor lighting) and „thin client“ computers • Lighting (LED): 90% (long term) • Cooling & Refridgerating: 30% • Dish washers: up to 50%*) • Cloth washers: up to 50%*) • Cloth driers: up to 50% (using heat pumps) • Motors & pumps (≈ 30%) • Energy savings of 20% until 2020 are economical • But: all households involved (very many actors) • *) when connected to central warm water supply Clemens Schneider
Low carbon technologies in Transport • Technologies to foster system efficiency of transport • Extension and more efficient use (telematics) of rail (and light rail) infrastructures to support modal shift to railways • Efficient drive trains: • Internal combustion engines (ICE): downsizing • Electrification of drive trains: recuperation of braking energy, use of renewable electricity in plug-in-hybrid vehicles (PHEV) • Light-weight construction • Information & communication technology to support “smart mobility” (using the most efficient transport mode available) • preconditions for major changes in mobility have to be organized locally • Excursus: Air traffic will be part of EU Emission Trading System from 2013 on. However, airplanes are long term investments (≈ 40 years) and will thus be replaced only slowly in the fleets. Clemens Schneider
Conclusions Technologies and cooperation:local action and acceptancCe • Central structures with large scale technologies may be organized easier top down but the impact of the used technologies is locally concentrated and they are more vulnerable to path dependance • Decentral low carbon energy technology solutions are mostly well-proven • Strategic behaviour in carbon markets is less likely when there is a plenitude of players • Cities are identified to be the adequate level to organize stable and sustainable energy supply according to specific local demands:not self-reliant but self-determined Clemens Schneider
Example “Innovation City Ruhr“: a “social laboratory“ • Public private partnership to try out fast diffusion of energy technologies in a part of the German Ruhr Area (former centre of German coal & steel production) • Scope: 50,000 inhabitants • Effective solutions shall be transferable to other cities in the area and abroad • City of Bottrop has been chosen in a competion process • Aim to reduce CO2-emissions by 50% until 2020. • Core areas of action: • Refurbishment • Energy efficiency in commerce and industry • Public Transport and electric mobility • Decentral energy supply Clemens Schneider
Example “Innovation City Ruhr“: a social laboratory Clemens Schneider
Thank You. www.wupperinst.org
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3 Insgesamt ist von einem Investitionsbedarf von ungefähr € 2,5 Mrd. auszugehen. Theoretische Modellrechung CO2-Reduktionspotential & Investitionsbedarf CO2-Ausstoß & Reduktions-potential (in t p.a.) -51% 200.0001) Heute Energie- effizienz eMobilität Dezentrale Erzeugung Schöner Wohnen 2020 Investitions-kosten (in Mio. €) 2.500 1.3002) 250 50 900 Energie- effizienz eMobilität Dezentrale Erzeugung Schöner Wohnen Gesamt Eingesetzte Produkte (Auswahl) • Fassaden für Gewerbe- und Industriehallen • Plexiglas im Bau • Messtechnik • Ladestationen für Elektroautos • Karosseriebau • Elektrobusse • Wärmepumpensysteme • Solare Brauchwasser-erwärmung • Wärme auf Rädern • Simulationsmodelle 1) Inkl. CO2-Reduktion von 0,3% durch Smart Grid Technologie 2) Ohne infrastrukturelle Maßnahmen Quelle: ILS; TRC; Initiativkreis Ruhr; A.T. Kearney 29 March 2011 Clemens Schneider