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A briefing on recent trends ….

Population and “urban growth” processes in Wellington Cities and Districts following the 2008 financial crisis. A briefing on recent trends …. James Newell, MERA ( Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd) Turnbull House, Wellington, July 25 th , 2012, a lunchtime seminar

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A briefing on recent trends ….

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  1. Population and “urban growth” processes in Wellington Cities and Districts following the 2008 financial crisis A briefing on recent trends …. James Newell, MERA (Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd) Turnbull House, Wellington, July 25th, 2012, a lunchtime seminar Release version as at 26th July 2012

  2. Briefing • Focus on the last few years since 2006 – in context • Previous work on Wellington was oriented more to long term strategic view • Growing importance of understanding recent short term trends

  3. People, homes, land, jobs …

  4. People / population • At a whole range of levels • Statistics about population .. • ……provide a window into • The Greater Wellington “settlement” and land use system … • ….and associated activities, infrastructure and services • … and the underlying communities and enterprises that make up Greater Wellington

  5. Where I am coming from? • More than 25 years hands on local “at the coal face” … • Population estimates and forecasting models • Urban growth models for local government • Special interest in understanding migration flows • within and between regions • international migration flows • labour and educational capital flows – incl trans Tasman • Labour market studies / employment patterns – employment, occupational and industry trends

  6. Why is an understanding of recent short term trends and administrative data important for long term strategic planning? • Post 2006 major events – possibly with long term implications.. • No 2011 census – evidence base for analysing trends and making detailed projections • Next census scheduled March 2013 – detailed results assume by mid 2014 • Over next two years, reliant on official and administrative statistics, use as a proxy census?

  7. Things are a changing….. • uncertainties - highest in my 30 years of experience of urban studies / growth modelling … ? • perhaps the 1987 share market crash would come closest to the scale of the changes post 2006….? • Expect shifts from the long term trend will emerge as evidence / statistics accummulate

  8. What does this mean….. • Analyse recent trends • Make use of a wide range of official and administrative statistics sources • Triangulating / patching / piecing together a composite picture from those sources.. • Understanding of recent trends basis for better understanding of long term shifts ..

  9. MERA work over last 30 months • Been focussed on using a “collage” of different sources to inform operational planning by central and local government • Initially due to the length of time since the previous census • Increasingly as a work around in the absence of the usual census data and to track / understand recent dramatic changes (eg. Chch post EQ)

  10. Sequence of work • 2010 : West Bays Central Auckland study Ministry of Education – understanding of explosive roll growth and projections of future demand • 2010/2011 - KapitiLT asset management planning in the context of the Expressway and Transmission Gulley developments • 2011/2012 - Canterbury in the context of and after earthquake impact and response / recovery ..

  11. Wellington context • MERA – since 1993 • “back room” role, accumulating and analysing data and applying “status quo” / consensus approach to long term projections of population, households, jobs, school and tertiary rolls • To be used in transport and other models • inform strategic planning infrastructure and service modelling .. (Central and local government) • Hard core programmer, but also regional planner / policy analyst / social scientist / demographer - statistician…. • Region / TLA / Suburb – TLA and WTSM modelling inputs

  12. Putting the statistics to work better.. • Huge library of statistics • Wide range of official and administrative statistics updated monthly / quarterly / annually.. • Wanting to get this information out there in new ways .. • That is what motivates this seminar • Thinking in terms of a regular regional population / urban development monitoring framework/process..

  13. Monitoring change in Wellington – multi-layered / muli-leveled and complex

  14. … built infrastructure and services considerations associated with land use … • Roads • Mass transit systems • Water supply • Sewage systems • Waste water systems • Industrial waste and waste water systems • Waste collection and management • Cellular network • Physical networks for telephone and data communications systems

  15. Piecing together trends and estimates involves both.. • Top down • Official and other summary statistics and surveys • Vital statistics (births and deaths), external migration movements, building consents, population estimates … • Bottom up • Operational and administrative records • School roll returns by school .. Ece … • Property records and assessments.. • Reconciling the strengths and weaknesses of different sources, systems and scenario assumptions

  16. Tracking population since the last census • We only have estimates • Statistics NZ for June year population • 5 years + since the last population census • 2011 census a casualty of the February 2011 census • Next census in 2013 – results in 2014?

  17. 2006 to 2012 period – and the future of Wellington • Big short term effects on jobs and migration • Out of the range of our prior expectations? • International : property bubble collapse, resulting financial and credit crisis • impacts on economies and population movement

  18. more than a bump in the road…? rethinking of the future scenarios for the region • Volatile population shifts driven by sensitivity of international LT flows to international political and economic conditions • Policy shifts – in the roles of local, regional and central government • New residential construction drastically slowed but residential reinvestment / redevelopment of existing residential housing stock sustained • Insurance issues looming large for local public, private and community infrastructure – a fallout effect from the Canterbury EQ insurance claims • growing ethnic and cultural diversity – new settler communities developing in all major centres • NZ citizen returnees an important part of some local populations

  19. Tools / methods and Results

  20. New tools methods for tracking / working with intercensal data.. • Statistics NZ population estimates – robust best guess assumptions… • National – quarterly by single year age and sex • Locally – annually June years by 5 year age and sex • SNZ estimates • Need to be able to relate these to the underying evidence base • what are their assumptions, how do they track against past projections and unfolding trends? • Projections updated every several years • Problem – 5 year age group data can’t easily be used for analysing annual series / trends

  21. Reverse engineering of Statistics NZ population estimates and projection scenarios • Been emulating Stats NZ national and local authority projections for decades (and was doing local auth projections at “Town and Country Planning, Ministry of Works before SNZ started to do them …) • Over the last year – reverse engineering SNZ local estimates – to better understand assumptions for Christchurch so as to track better EQ population impacts…

  22. MERA population accounting models • Developed an intercensal population accounts to estimate regional / local migration flows in 1999 • Over 2011/2012 developed a prototype single year of age level annualised population estimates model consistent with Stats NZ annual local authority estimates • Enables SNZ underlying assumptions to be tracked and compared more easily with projection scenarios and accumulating evidence • Was needed for analsying Christchurch …

  23. MERA subnational population accounting model – for identifying assumptions – and analysing evidence against estimates Red components are derived by combining others Blue components are based on MERA custom series

  24. Subnational population accounts model engineering • design • build • test

  25. How does this first implementation of the model measure up? • Population estimates at five year of age match exactly SNZ estimates • Net migration matches almost exactly (about 0.1% tolerance …) • Net migration by age tolerance varies – with better internal migration inputs should improve… • Enables internal and external migration, births, deaths to be made explicit • Provides basis for tracking against actuals, past projection assumptions and evaluating existing projections..

  26. MERA Modelled versus SNZ Actual Net Migration assumptions 2010-2011

  27. Some indicative trends / stats • Components of regional /population change … • External permanent long term migration • Building permits (housing stock, property and rental markets…) • Employment trends by industry – using annual business survey results • Administrative records – education, health, electoral rolls?

  28. Long term trends in population growth rate for Wellington?

  29. Some points for Wellington • A stable long term growth rate • generally not as susceptible to the extremes of international and domestic highs and lows as Auckland and Christchurch • generally lower than Greater Auckland and Greater Christchurch • on a par with the North Island excluding Auckland • higher the South Island excl Christchurch

  30. Annual % change in population of Wellington – 1981 – 2011..

  31. Within Wellington – est annual % popn change 1981 - 2011

  32. Wellington 2006 – 2011 – ann % chgepopn

  33. Cohort aging in place – Wellington by year of age 1981 - 2006

  34. Components of recent population change in Wellington

  35. 2006 – 2011 modelled assumptions behind SNZ pop estimates

  36. Components of Population Change 2006-2011 Regional Comparisons

  37. Components of migration – 2006 to 2011 - Wellington

  38. National Migration Rates : 2006 to 2011

  39. Components of Population Change 2006-2011 Wellington TLAs

  40. Wgtn TA Migration Rates : 2006 to 2011

  41. External Migration Flows ….

  42. NZ Trends – PLT Flows 12mth moving average

  43. Wellington Trends – PLT Flows 12mth moving average

  44. Building Consents …. By value

  45. Residential Building Consents – Well TLAs – 12 mth moving average

  46. Non-Residential Building Consents – Well TLAs – 12 mth moving average

  47. Comparing Residential Building Consents – Well TLAs – 12 mthmvgav

  48. Business Survey Jobs..

  49. Business Survey Jobs..

  50. Wellington • The third largest labour market catchment in NZ? • The capital and also strategically placed in the centre of the country • Governance and services associated with governance, but as a capital city, culturally rich and strong international connections and influence • Gateway to the Wairarapa, Hawke’s Bay in the north-east and Horowhenua, Palmerston North, Wanganui in the northwest, sea link to Picton and the South Island .. • Secondary NZ airways hub to Auckland? … well connected by air services to all parts of NZ

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