Agenda-setting; Policy Formulation I: the foundations of policy analysis

1. October 15, 2013 Agenda-setting; Policy Formulation I: the foundations of policy analysis

2. Midterm October 22 • You are only responsible for readings, lectures, and themes up through last week (through October 10) • Theme list for midterms will be finalized by tomorrow 11 AM • Be Connect smart: download lectures rather than relying on system

3. Today’s agenda • Course reset • Policy cycle • Agenda setting • Policy formulation • Policy analysis

4. Analytical Framework: Forces at work in natural resources policy governance policies environment actions markets Conse- quences

5. Agenda-Setting Policy Formulation Decisionmaking Policy Implementation Monitoring and Evaluation Policy Cycle Model

6. Agenda-Setting – Definitions • Social Agenda (general, systemic): issues that the public thinks deserve attention from government • measures: polls, media • Formal Agenda (government): issues explicitly up for active and serious consideration by policy makers • measures: announced proposals, throne speech

7. Northern Gateway v Clayoquot Media coverage NGP from Oct 1 2011-Sep 15, 2013, Clayoquot 1993

8. Source: http://greenpolicyprof.org/wordpress/?p=686

9. Agenda-Setting - Process • Kingdon’s “streams” model: a confluence of • Problem stream • Politics stream • Policy (solution) stream • Opens a “policy window” • Opportunity for “policy entrepreneurs”

10. Agenda-Setting - Process • Changes in “Problem” • indicators • knowledge, technology • focusing event • Changes in “Politics” • changing public mood • elections • interest group strategies

11. Agenda-Setting - Process • Changes in “Problem” • indicators • knowledge, technology • focusing event • Changes in “Politics” • changing public mood • elections • interest group strategies • How did the mid-term timber supply issue get on the government’s agenda?

12. Small Group Discussion • How did the mid-term timber supply issue get on the government’s agenda?

13. Agenda-Setting Policy Formulation Decisionmaking Policy Implementation Monitoring and Evaluation Policy Cycle Model

14. Policy Formulation Thinking Talking Consultation with stakeholders • Policy analysis of alternatives

15. Case Study: mid-term timber supply • Special Committee on Timber Supply

16. 6-stepPatton and Sawieki – Basic Methods of Policy Analysis and Planning • Verify, define and detail the problem • Establish evaluation criteria • Identify alternative policies • Assess alternative policies • Display and distinguish among alternatives • Implement, monitor, and evaluate the policy

17. Essential Steps • Define problem • Criteria for evaluation • Identify multiple alternatives • Outcomes/consequences of alternatives • Compare/tradeoff • Recommended decision

18. PS v. GH • Verify, define and detail the problem • Establish evaluation criteria • Identify alternative policies • Assess alternative policies • Display and distinguish among alternatives • Implement, monitor, and evaluate the policy • Define problem • Criteria for evaluation • Identify multiple alternatives • Outcomes/consequences of alternatives • Compare/tradeoff • Recommended decision

19. 1. Problem definition • don’t confuse with solutions • quantify if possible • be skeptical about common causal claims

20. 2. Criteria for evaluation • apply to outcomes, not alternatives • build on problem definition • common: • Effectiveness • Efficiency (cost-effectiveness) • equity • political acceptability • robustness and improvability

21. 3. Identify multiple alternatives • start comprehensive, end up focused • Alternative = option • The status is an alternative

22. 4. Project Outcomes/Consequences • projection = model + evidence • attach magnitude estimates • breakeven estimates • avoid excessive optimism • scenario-writing • other person’s shoes

23. 5. Compare/Tradeoff • Commensurability • Confront the tradeoffs

24. Analysis vs. Advocacy Analysis advocacy Position based on group’s interest Strategic framing More selective use of evidence • Neutral stance on Solutions, Problem framing • Careful, balanced use of evidence Does effective analysis ignore other side’s argument, or engage it? The best argument explicitly addresses an opponents strongest claim and discredits it with evidence and reason

25. Thursday • 11-12: Midterm review session led by Gabrielle • There will be no presentation: Come in with questions • 12-1: Special session for those whose native language is not English

26. Midterm • Tuesday October 22 • CHBE 103 FRST 523 + FRST 415 A-K last name • FRST 1221 – L- Z last name • George Office hours • Today 2:30-3:30 • Wednesday 10-12 • Monday – 10-2:30 • Gabrielle: FSC 2227 Wednesday 3:30-4:30, Friday from 9-10 am.

27. Thursday October 24 • First tutorial on writing brief – Problem definition • “flipped classroom” • You are required to read the one-pager on problem definition that is that will be posted on Connect by the evening of October 22 • Come to class ready to work with your groups to define your problem