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Analysis and comparison of national and EU-wide projections of greenhouse gas emissions

Analysis and comparison of national and EU-wide projections of greenhouse gas emissions. Objective: support of the annual assessing of progress in GHG emission reduction in the EU as a whole Responsibilities within ETC/ACC: AEA Technology, Oeko-Institute, RIVM, UBA-Berlin.

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Analysis and comparison of national and EU-wide projections of greenhouse gas emissions

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  1. Analysis and comparison of national and EU-wide projections of greenhouse gas emissions Objective: • support of the annual assessing of progress in GHG emission reduction in the EU as a whole Responsibilities within ETC/ACC: • AEA Technology, Oeko-Institute, RIVM, UBA-Berlin

  2. Analysis and comparison of national and EU-wide projections of greenhouse gas emissionsreason why Two approaches for assessing emission projections for the EU: • EU-aggregate national emission projections delivered by Member States • EU-wide emission projections from studies modelling the EU as one region (Sectoral Objectives Study, Blok/de Jager/Hendriks 2001)

  3. 101 100 based on EU-wide projection based on national projection Analysis and comparison of national and EU-wide projections of greenhouse gas emissionsTotal GHG emissions for EU15 in 2010

  4. 130 119 117 117 139 127 100 120 118 81 94 114 113 85 110 83 101 81 111 159 102 143 108 107 123 122 136 129 Analysis and comparison of national and EU-wide projections of greenhouse gas emissionsTotal GHG emissions for Member States in 2010

  5. Analysis and comparison of national and EU-wide projections of greenhouse gas emissionsComparison by sectors for total GHG for EU15 in 2010 Emissions assessed by EU Member States or by EU-wide model study are projected to decline significantly or remain stable. So, what is the more probable message?

  6. Analysis and comparison of national and EU-wide projections of greenhouse gas emissionsComparison by Member States for total GHG in 2010 for the energy sector

  7. Analysis and comparison of national and EU-wide projections of greenhouse gas emissionsObstacles • Policies and measuresuncertain state of implementation; since when, really in effect?Consideration in what scenario? (‚With meas.‘, ‚With additional meas.‘?Less concrete identification in model runs • Sectoral disaggregationvarious sector splits and definitions • driving forces only little detail of energy structures, fuel mix, renewables, cogeneration, etc. in some cases • Framework assumptionspossibly some inconsistency with regard to energy prices, electricity imports/exports

  8. Analysis and comparison of national and EU-wide projections of greenhouse gas emissionsFollow up • More appropriate reporting of emission projections • Further analysis of projections on the basis of more detailed information • Communication of key factors and reasons for differences • Experts network

  9. Analysis and comparison of national and EU-wide projections of greenhouse gas emissions Thank you and please start discussion now

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