Electricity in Thailand: current arrangements, impacts, alternatives

1. Electricity in Thailand:current arrangements, impacts, alternatives 2 August, 2006 ERI Chris Greacen www.palangthai.org

2. Will our electricity future look like this?

3. …or this?

4. … or this?

6. Natural gas • Used to make 71% of Thailand’s electricity (among highest in world) • Cleaner than other fossil fuels (especially SOx) but still big CO2 emissions • Limited domestic supply. • Human rights issues in pipeline from Burma (Yadana) LNG terminal

7. Natural gas • Severe price volatility – linked to crude oil price. • Now around $0.05 to $0.07 / kWh

8. Coal • Used to make 14% of Thailand’s electricity • History of respiratory illnesses from coal smoke – Mae Mot, Lampang • Acid rain • Worst fuel for global warming • Limited domestic supply • Cheaper (now) than natural gas ($0.04 to $0.06/kWh) • Strong environmental opposition

9. Big hydro • Used to make 6% of Thailand’s electricity • Consensus: no more big dams will be built in Thailand • Limited sites left in Thailand • Strong environmental opposition • Environmental issues • Inundation • Fish killed • Global warming • Changes in temperature / sediment loading / flow regime • Can be cheap • If reasonably close to load centers

10. Thailand seen from altitude of 450 kilometers Khao Laem dam reservoir Sri Nakharin dam reservoir Burma

11. Thailand seen from 54 kilometers Sri Nakharin dam reservoir

12. Khao Laem dam resettlement • According to a study produced by the World Bank's Operations Evaluations Department in 1993, 80% of people evicted by the dam "were...dissatisfied with the resettlement outcome", considering themselves "to be worse off than before resettlement". • "We had to spend all of our compensation for living, and it wasn't enough, actually. The condition of the land here and my previous land is very different...I miss the fertile resources. I could find things for a meal. The thing that I miss most is rice. Rice is my soul. Our ancestors did rice farming for ages. But now I cannot grow rice and have to buy it, which is also very expensive ... If I could ask the officials for one thing, I would like to ask, 'Please can I return to where I was?'" • Panya Kwanprasertwaree, a Karen elder who was forced to move because of the dam

13. Nuclear • Currently not used to make any of Thailand’s electricity • Cost uncertain • $0.02 to $0.12/kWh • Environment & security issues • Generates materials that can be used to make weapons • Thailand has spotty nuclear safety record already • Waste dangerous for 250,000 years.

14. Thai Electricity demand is projected to grow

15. What should be done to make sure that there is enough electricity? Industry response… • Natural gas interests say: • “Use more gas!” • “It’s clean(er).” • Coal interests say: • “Use more coal” for fuel diversity • “Clean” coal • “It’s cheaper” • Hydropower interests say: • “New dams in Lao and Burma!” • Asian Development Bank GMS grid • “Big hydro for poverty reduction!” • “It’s cheap” • Nuclear advocates say: • “Nuclear energy is part of the ultimate answer”

16. What should be done to make sure that there is enough electricity? ADB/World Bank response… ADB’s Indicative Master Plan on Power Interconnect-ion in the GMS

17. Civil society response… • Fix governance problems • Transparency, accountability, public participation • Remove conflict of interest • Set up empowered, competent regulatory authority • More realistic demand projections • Consider a full range of alternatives in power development plan including: • Energy savings • Renewable energy • Combined Heat and Power

18. Fix governance problems: Transparency, accountability, public participation

19. Fix governance problems: Remove conflict of interest • Example: transmission shouldn’t be controlled by the same business that owns generation.

20. Fix governance problems: regulatory authority • Independent • Able to think for itself • Competent in working for public interest • Public wants reliable, affordable energy without environmental impacts • Empowered • Has authority to enforce the rules

21. Centralized utility(EGAT) Decentralized utility(A better way) Central Generation Central Generation Wind RemoteLoads Genset Fuel Cell Battery PV Customer Efficiency Customers 21

22. More realistic demand projections • Official Thai Jan 04 forecast overestimated 2006 peak demand by 1674 MW. • Lao NT2 = 995 MW

23. Power Development Plan (Planned installed capacity = peak demand + 15% reserve)

24. Options that need to be included

25. Options that need to be included • Saving energy

26. Options that need to be included • Saving energy • Renewable energy

27. Options that need to be included • Saving energy • Renewable energy • Combined heat and power (CHP)

28. Centralized utility(EGAT) Decentralized utility(A better way) Central Generation Central Generation Wind RemoteLoads Genset Fuel Cell Battery PV Customer Efficiency Customers 28

29. Saving electricity is cheaper than generating it… Demand Side Management (saving electricity) Source: The World Bank (1993)

30. Saving Energy : big potential in Thailand • 2000 to 3000 MW: “Achievable and cost effective Demand Side Management (DSM)” in 1991 (Utility study)

31. Saving energy in the house: Using overhangs, trees to keep house cool South ที่มา : Australian Greenhouse Office (2003)

32. Saving Energy in a typical pumping system

33. Source: Presentation by Ministry of Energy at Energy Strategy Workshop chaired by Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. 28 August 2003

34. Community micro-hydro • Mae Kam Pong village, Chiang Mai • 1x40 kW; 2x20 kW • Community cooperative

35. 40 kW micro-hydro generator at Mae Kam Pong

36. Reduces air and water pollution Produces fertilizer Produces electricity Biogas from Pig Farms

37. Biogas from Pig Farms • 8 x 70 kW generators

38. Korat Waste to Energy - biogas • Uses waste water from cassava to make methane • Produces gas for all factory heat (30 MW thermal) + 3 MW of electricity

39. Korat Waste to Energy - biogas • 3 x 1 MW gas generators

40. Rice husk fired power plant • 9.8 MW • Roi Et province

41. Wind power • Hundreds of kW to 5 MW per turbine • Now over 15,000 MW in Germany • Denmark gets >17% electricity from wind • Power costs in Thailand: 4 to 6 baht/kWh www.windpower.org

42. Wind Energy Potential Map Average speed 4.4 - 6.4 m/sec Power Potential 1,600 MW

43. Solar electricity – off-grid • 25,000 baht per household system • 120 watts • Electricity for 2 lights + TV

45. Grid connected solar electricity • Baht 250 to 350 per watt • VSPP program • Baht 9 to 15 per kWh (compare to baht 2.5 per kWh from PEA) shop.altenergystore.com

46. 3 kW grid-connect solar electricity at EPPO office in Bangkok

47. Cost of renewable energy is sometimes higher than conventional Production cost (baht/kWh) coal biomass Small hydro solar wind Energy efficiency gas

48. Renewable energy accounts for very little of Thailands’ installed generating capacity Imported coal 0.6% grid-connected renewables Big hydro lignite Fuel oil Natural gas TOTAL: 26,000 MW Source: EGAT (2003). Power Development Plan

49. Combined Heat and Power (CHP)… also called “cogeneration”

50. CHP potential in Thailand • 8610 MW cogen installed as of 2001 • At least 3,000 MW of additional cogen had applied and have not been accepted.