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The new cold war? : Geopolitical implications of climate change in the arctic region

ENS 275 Term Paper Presentation By Ronald Edilberto A. Ona PhD Environmental Science. The new cold war? : Geopolitical implications of climate change in the arctic region. The New Cold War?. Climate Change in the Arctic. Climate Change is now unequivocal (IPCC 2007)

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The new cold war? : Geopolitical implications of climate change in the arctic region

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  1. ENS 275 Term Paper Presentation By Ronald Edilberto A. Ona PhD Environmental Science The new cold war? : Geopolitical implications of climate change in the arctic region

  2. The New Cold War?

  3. Climate Change in the Arctic • Climate Change is now unequivocal (IPCC 2007) • Arctic Sea Ice Extent: 1980-2005 trend -2.7% per decade • Summer minimum Arctic Sea Ice Extent trend -7.4% • September 2007 – record low of sea ice extent, 38% below the 1979-2007 average • Lack of ice means less heat is reflected and water warms up

  4. Effects on the Arctic Ocean • Increased ocean temperature • Decreased salinity • Higher ocean levels

  5. Who owns the Arctic? • NO ONE! • But… eight countries are geographically located close to the Arctic Region • Collectively known as the ‘Circumpolar Eight’ (Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden and the United States) • Five out of the C8 countries share the Arctic coastline…and claims it!

  6. Who claims pieces of the Arctic?

  7. Why claim the Arctic? • United Nations Convention on the Laws of the Sea allows countries to claim 320 nautical kilometers beyond their coastline as Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) • Prove that the undersea shelf extends beyond your coastline and you get the right to exploit all natural resources within the EEZ • UNCLOS Article 76 specifically on the geopolitical implications of global warming on the Arctic

  8. What awaits the winners? • RESOURCES…?! • Potentially 29% of global natural gas (50 Trillion cubic meters of natural gas • Potentially 10% of global oil (90 Billion barrels of oil) • PASSAGE? The Northern Sea Route or NSR offers about 40% shorter travel time compared to Suez or Panama Canal

  9. The NSR: A new short cut! • Between Europe and the U.S. West Coast, or • Between Northeast Asia and the Asia Pacific Region • Hamburg, Germany to Yokohama, Japan is normally 18,400 kilometers BUT through the NSR, it is only 11,100 kilometers • Normally passable only during summers BUT with global warming, ALL YEAR ROUND!

  10. The Northern Sea Route

  11. The stakes are high! • According to Russia, there are 586 Billion barrels of oil in the Arctic part of Russia (EEZ) • If Russia gets its claims via UNCLOS, 2/3 of Global Hydrocarbon Reserves would be controlled by Russia • 69% of the Arctic Reserves Belong or will likely belong to Russia • There are possible diamonds, gold, zinc and nickel deposits too!

  12. A NEW COLD WAR IN THE ARCTIC? • The chilling danger in the race for the North Pole’s resources is the prospect of war on the top of the world. • A battle for the cold war is the coldest war of all, fought in a frozen waste land! • Will there be a shooting war or just a ‘Cold War’ just like the good old days of the USA vs. the USSR?

  13. THE MIGHT OF THE RUSSIAN BEAR • Russian Nuclear Arsenal: 4,147 warheads and 848 delivery vehicles in its Nuclear Triad • Land Based: Topol-M (SS-27) ICBM, 48 silo-based and 3 mobile system • Air Based: 141 Tu-22M3 Backfire, 40 Tu-95 MS Bear and 14 Tu-160 Blackjack • Sea Based: Borey class and Akula class Nuclear Submarine armed with Bulava and Sineva SLBM

  14. The Strength of the American Eagle • Nuclear Arsenal: 4,075 warheads in its Nuclear Triad • Land Based: Minuteman III, Peacekeeper MX • Air Based: B-52H Stratofortress, B-1B Lancer, B-2A Spirit • Sea Based: Ohio class nuclear ballistic submarine armed with Trident I C-4 and Trident II D-5 SLBM

  15. Has the Cold War started? Russia is the first country to claim its EEZ in the Arctic Region via Article 76 of the UNCLOS. To backup its claim it sent a scientific expedition in summer of 2007 which reached the seabed of the Arctic Ocean, 4,261m below the North Pole. A Russian titanium flag was placed at the seabed.

  16. The Russian Expedition • Mission: to gather scientific evidence to support the Russian claim via the Lomonosov and Alpha-Mendeelev Ridges • The planting of a titanium Russian flag on the Lomonosov Ridge

  17. U.S. Reaction • Scramble the Ice Breakers • Increase Arctic Air Patrols • Boost for funding the U.S. Coast Guard / Arctic Missions

  18. The Canadian Reaction • Operation Nanook: Two surface ships, a submarine, and 700 military personnel conducted Arctic military exercise • Big speeches by Prime Minister Harper belittling Russia’s action and reiterating Canada’s claim to the Arctic • New military bases to be established in the Arctic and an Arctic National Sensor System for submarines and surface ships

  19. Danish Reaction • Scientific expedition launched with 40 scientists aboard a Swedish ice breaker • Mission: To gather evidence that the Lomonosov Ridge is an underwater extension of Greenland, not Russia • Bonus: Denmark Flag planting in the Hans Island (tiny uninhabited knoll with an area of 1.3 square kilometer

  20. Norwegian Reaction • None. Silent. • Why? • It has a long history of strategic partnership with Russia for oil and gas exploration. • Statoil and Norsk Hydro cooperate with Gazprom and Rosneft

  21. Greenland and Alaska • In eastern Greenland, there are estimated 10 billion barrels of oil. • In the northern shelf of Alaska, there are about six billion barrels of oil. • Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, if opened means more oil and gas.

  22. Oil and Gas Industries in the Arctic Region • Exxon in Russia and Alaska • Shell in Canada • British Petroleum in Alaska • Statoil in Norway and Russia • Gazprom in Russia

  23. Environmental Impact of the Oil and Gas Exploration The impacts include changes to ocean level, ecosystem, global temperature and pollution.

  24. Peace or War? • Conflict resolution via diplomacy and cooperation through arbitrary action via UNCLOS Article 76? • Joint research, exploration and cooperation via the Arctic Council? • Limited armed skirmishes among small military units? • Full scale naval warfare with limited nuclear engagement?

  25. THOUGHTS TO PONDER: • Why should anyone own the Arctic? • If the government of the Arctic claimant countries believe that Climate Change is unequivocal and most have signed the Kyoto Protocol, why are they rushing to mine more fossil fuels in the Arctic? • Who support these activities? Those politicians? These policies? • Why should there be a new Cold War over fossil fuels in the Arctic?

  26. God morgonoch tack pålyssna till mig.

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